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  3. Wednesday, 24 May 2017
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COZfx: Canadian dollar hits fresh 4-week highs

COZforex: The Canadian dollar rose to fresh 4 week highs against its broadly weaker US counterpart on Tuesday, boosted by higher prices for oil and robust domestic data.

USD/CAD was down 0.3% to 1.3462 by 09.30 ET, its lowest trough since April 24.

The price of oil, a major Canadian export pushed higher amid hopes that major producers will extend supply cuts for a prolonged period later this week, amid efforts to reduce a global supply glut.

The loonie received an additional boost after data showing that the value of Canadian wholesale trade grew by 0.9% in March, hitting a record high.

The increase was mainly due to increased demand for building materials and supplies, Statistics Canada said.
The greenback was struggling near six-month lows against a currency basket as expectations for fiscal stimulus under the Trump administration faded amid political turmoil in Washington.

Recent weeks have seen a steady stream of revelations surrounding the FBI’s investigation into alleged Russian interference in November’s presidential election and reports that President Donald Trump attempted to interfere with the judicial process.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was last at 96.83, not far from Monday’s six-month trough of 96.83.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Australia’s business conditions sharply improved in October

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD declined 0.44% against the USD and closed at 0.7618.

In commodities, LME Copper prices declined 0.4% or $29.0/MT to $6768.0/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminium prices rose 0.5% or $10.0/MT to $2100.0/MT.

Overnight data indicated that Australia’s NAB business conditions index jumped to a record high level of 21.0 in October, suggesting that businesses are growing much more confident about the nation’s improving economic conditions and strengthening labour market. In the prior month, the index had registered a level of 14.0. Also, the nation’s NAB business confidence index remained unchanged at a level of 8.0 in October.

Elsewhere, in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, industrial production advanced less-than-anticipated by 6.2% on an annual basis in October, pointing to a slowdown in the nation’s industrial sector. Markets had anticipated industrial production to gain 6.3%, compared to a rise of 6.6% in the prior month.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7604 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7579; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7660, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7691.

Going forward, Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence index for November, due to release overnight, will be on investors’ radar.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Japanese Yen trading flat in the Asian session

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD marginally declined against the JPY and closed at 113.80.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 113.80, with the USD trading flat against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

Earlier today, Japan’s preliminary leading economic index eased to 106.6, compared to a reading of 107.2 in the previous month. Market expectation was for the leading economic index to drop to 106.6. Moreover, the nation’s coincident index fell to 115.8 in September from a level of 117.7 in the prior month. Markets were anticipating that the index would decline to a level of 115.9.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 113.51 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 113.23; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 114.21, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 114.63.

Moving forward, Bank of Japan’s latest Summary of Opinions, Japan’s trade balance figures and machine orders, both for September, all scheduled to be released overnight, would be on investors’ radar.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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  1. one week ago
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COZfx: BoE raised its benchmark interest rate due to Brexit pressure, but signalled further rate hikes would be gradual

COZforex: For the past trading session, the GBP declined 1.48% against the USD and closed at 1.3053, following a dovish statement by the Bank of England.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee increased its key interest rate to 0.50% from 0.25% by a majority vote of 7-2, its first hike since July 2007, in an effort to combat rising inflation and bring it back to its 2.0% targeted level.
However, the central bank added that future interest rate hikes would be “very gradual” and to a limited extent. BoE Governor, Mark Carney, stated that the Brexit talks would be the most important factor for the next move on interest rates, which could either go up or down.

On the data front, UK’s construction PMI rose to 50.8 in October, more than market expectations of an advance to a level of 48.5. In the previous month, the construction PMI had recorded a level of 48.1.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.2978 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2888; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3224, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3380.

Moving ahead, UK Markit services PMI data for October, set to release in a few hours, would be closely assessed by market participants.


(COZ forex UK)
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  1. one week ago
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COZfx: Oil trading flat in the morning session

COZforex: For the past trading session, the Crude Oil rose 2.43% against the USD and closed at USD53.95 per barrel on Friday, amid expectations that OPEC and other major oil producers would extend curbs on crude oil supplies for another nine months to the end of the next year.

Meanwhile, Baker Hughes reported that US oil rig count rose by 1 to 737 in the week ended 27 October 2017.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at USD53.95 per barrel, with the Crude Oil trading flat from Friday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZ senior foreign exchange risk investment trader Desmond Doyle said: Crude Oil is expected to find support at 52.73 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 51.51; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 54.68, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 55.41.

Crude oil is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Euro-zone’s manufacturing sector activity at a 6-year high in October, services sector growth cooled to a 2-month low in the same month

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR rose 0.13% against the USD and closed at 1.1765, buoyed by a stronger-than-expected reading on the Euro-zone manufacturing sector.

Data showed that the Euro-zone’s preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly climbed to a level of 58.6 in October, hitting its highest level since February 2011 and suggesting that manufacturing sector will continue to propel growth in the common currency region. Markets had expected the PMI to fall to a level of 57.8, after recording a reading of 58.1 in the previous month. On the contrary, the region’s flash Markit services PMI declined more-than-anticipated to a level of 54.9 in October, expanding at its weakest pace in two months. The PMI had recorded a reading of 55.8 in the prior month, while investors had envisaged for a fall to a level of 55.6.

Separately, activity in Germany’s manufacturing sector slightly eased to a level of 60.5 in October, against market consensus for a fall to a level of 60.0. In the previous month, the PMI had recorded a reading of 60.6. Meanwhile, the nation’s services sector growth slowed to a level of 55.2 in October, more than market expectations for a drop to a level of 55.5 and following a reading of 55.6 in the previous month.

The greenback gained ground against a basket of major currencies, driven by reports that Republican Senators are leaning towards John Taylor to be the next head of the Federal Reserve.

Gains in the US Dollar were supported further, following a pair of upbeat economic releases in the US that pointed towards improving economic conditions in the world’s largest economy.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.1738 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1715; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1788, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1815.

Moving ahead, investors would eye Germany’s Ifo expectations and business climate indices for October, slated to release in a few hours. Moreover, the US flash durable goods orders and new home sales, both for September, set to release later in the day, will keep investors on their toes.


(Coz Forex UK)
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COZfx: Canada’s manufacturing shipments climbed to an 8-month high in August

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.4% against the CAD and closed at 1.2464.

On the data front, Canada’s manufacturing shipments surprisingly advanced 1.6% in August, rising the most in eight months and compared to a fall of 2.6% in the previous month. Investor had envisaged manufacturing shipments to drop 0.3%.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.2471, with the USD trading 0.06% higher against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/CAD is expected to find support at 1.2437 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2404; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2519, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2568.

Amid no macroeconomic releases in Canada today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic factors.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Higher interest rates could hurt heavily-indebted households: RBA Financial Stability Review

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD rose 0.35% against the USD and closed at 0.7823.

In commodities, LME Copper prices rose 1.9% or $128.0/MT to $6813.0/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminium prices declined 0.3% or $6.5/MT to $2117.5/MT.

Earlier in the session, the Reserve Bank of Australia, in its twice-yearly Financial Stability Review, expressed deep concerns about the property market and warned that household borrowing is a key risk to the nation’s financial system as it could see households struggle to repay their debt.

Separately, in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, trade surplus narrowed more-than-expected to CNY193.0 billion in September, following a surplus of CNY286.5 billion in the preceding month, while investors had envisaged for a surplus of CNY266.0 billion.

Additionally, the nation’s annual exports increased less-than-anticipated by 9.0% in September, after recording a gain of 6.9% in the previous month. Also, the nation’s imports grew more-than-expected by 19.5% YoY in September, compared to a rise of 14.4% in the prior month.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7812 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7787; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7852, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7867.

Next week, market participants would await the release of the RBA’s October meeting minutes along with Australia’s unemployment rate data.


(COZ forex UK)
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  1. more than a month ago
  2. Commercial Forum
  3. # 7
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COZfx: Britain’s Halifax house prices surprisingly advanced in September

COZforex: For the past trading session, the GBP declined 0.37% against the USD and closed at 1.3068 on Friday, amid a fresh bout of political uncertainty in the UK.

On the macro front, UK’s Halifax house price index unexpectedly advanced 0.8% on a monthly basis in September, following a revised advance of 1.5% in the prior month and defying markets consensus for a flat reading.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.3086, with the GBP trading 0.14% higher against the USD from Friday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.3040 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2993; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3120, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3153.

Going ahead, traders will look forward to Britain’s BRC retail sales data for September, slated to release overnight.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.


(COZ forex UK)
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  1. more than a month ago
  2. Commercial Forum
  3. # 8
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COZfx: Swiss Franc trading ahead of Switzerland’s ZEW expectations data

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.31% against the CHF and closed at 0.9693.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.9704, with the USD trading 0.11% higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/CHF is expected to find support at 0.9665 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9626; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9735, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9766.

Looking forward, market participants would keep a close watch on Switzerland’s ZEW expectations index for September and the UBS consumption indicator for August, slated to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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  1. more than a month ago
  2. Commercial Forum
  3. # 9
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COZfx: German investor confidence sharply picked-up in September

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR rose 0.32% against the USD and closed at 1.1995, after data showed that German investor morale sharply improved in September.

Data indicated that Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index climbed more-than-anticipated to a level of 17.0 in September, strengthening for the first time in four months, amid increased optimism among investors in the wake of strong economic growth and increased investment in the Euro-zone’s largest economy. In the previous month, the index had registered a reading of 10.0, while markets had anticipated for an advance to a level of 12.0. Additionally, the nation’s current situation index unexpectedly rose to a six-year high level of 87.9 in September, defying market consensus for a drop to a level of 86.2 and following a reading of 86.7 in the previous month.

Separately, the Euro-zone’s ZEW economic sentiment index climbed to a level of 31.7 in September, less than market expectations for a rise to a level of 32.4 and compared to a level of 29.3 recorded in the previous month. Additionally, the region’s seasonally adjusted construction output rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in July, after recording a revised similar rise in the prior month. Moreover, the region’s seasonally adjusted current account surplus widened to a level of €25.1 billion in July, compared to a revised surplus of €22.8 billion in the prior month.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.1970 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1930; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2034, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2058.

Going ahead, investors will look forward to Germany’s producer price index for August, slated to release in a few hours. Later in the day, market participants will keenly await the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting. The central bank is widely anticipated to announce plans on paring back its massive balance sheet. Also, the US existing home sales data for August, due to release later in the day, will be on investors’ radar.


(COZ forex UK)
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  1. more than a month ago
  2. Commercial Forum
  3. # 10
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