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USA Gross Domestic Product Annualized

National Income and Product Accounts Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2017 (Second Estimate) Corporate Profits: First Quarter 2017 (Preliminary Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent in the first quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Anal...
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IHS Markit

Week Ahead Economic Overview

Worldwide releases of manufacturing PMI surveys will provide important signals as to global growth and inflation trends in the middle of the second quarter growth, thereby giving an early indication of the direction of future central bank policy. Other key data highlights include US nonfarm payrolls and inflation, as well as a number of first quarter GDP releases.

Second quarter economic growth trends are likely to be key to future policy decisions at major central banks, notably the US, which means that the upcoming PMI signals for May will be highly scrutinised.

Flash PMI surveys indicated that growth in US business activity gained slight momentum in May, supporting the view that GDP will rebound in the second quarter. The upturn is being accompanied by solid inflation in prices charged for goods and services, which will add to expectations of the Fed hiking interest rates again in June. Markets are pricing in an 80%-plus probability of a June interest rate rise.

Alongside updated data from IHS Markit’s PMI surveys and the ISM, the US sees the release of nonfarm payroll data. April figures surprised on the upside, showing a gain of 211,000, but flash PMI data point to growth in the region of 160,000 in May. PCE price index, personal income and spending, and US trade balance data will also be monitored for indications of US macroeconomic trends.

ECB watchers will meanwhile be eyeing the final manufacturing PMI numbers as well as euro area surveys on business and consumer sentiment. Flash PMI data signalled that eurozone economic growth continued to hold steady at the fastest for six years in May. The pace of expansion signalled by the PMI is historically consistent with the ECB taking a hawkish stance, however a dip in cost pressures added weight to arguments that there’s no rush to taper policy, especially given ongoing concerns over Italy’s banking woes and Greece’s bailout.

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© IHS Markit

rttnews

Swedish Economy Likely To Continue Strong Growth Momentum

Sweden's economic growth is likely to pick up pace in the coming months of 2017, despite a decline in the recent economic tendency indicator, Stephen Brown, an economist at Capital Economics, said this week.

Official data from the National Institute of Economic Research released on Wednesday showed that the economic tendency indicator fell to 111.0 in May from 112.6 in April.

The slight decline in May was mainly due to a notable decrease in the manufacturing confidence. The corresponding index fell to 117.0 from 122.9 in the prior month.

Nonetheless, the reading still signals a very strong Swedish economy and broad based growth, Brown observed.

The consumer confidence index climbed to a 74-month high of 105.9 in May.

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rttnews

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Shows Little Change In May

Consumer sentiment in the U.S. was virtually unchanged in May, according to revised data released by the University of Michigan on Friday.

The University of Michigan said the consumer sentiment index for May was downwardly revised to 97.1 from a preliminary reading of 97.7. The May reading is slightly higher than the final April reading of 97.0.

Economists had expected a more modest downward revision to the consumer sentiment index to a reading of 97.5.

"Consumer sentiment has continued to move along the high plateau established following Trump's election," said Richard Curtin, the survey's chief economist. "Indeed, the May figure was nearly identical with the December to May average of 97.3."

He added, "Moreover, the partisan divide between Democrats and Republicans has also remained largely unchanged, with the first expecting a recession and the other more robust economic growth."

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rttnews

U.S. Economy Grows Much More Than Initially Estimated In Q1

A report released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed that the U.S. economy grew by much more than initially estimated in the first three months of the year.

The Commerce Department said gross domestic product climbed by 1.2 percent in the first quarter compared to the previously reported 0.7 percent increase.

Economists had been expecting a more modest upward revision to the pace of GDP growth to approximately 0.9 percent.

Despite the bigger than expected upward revision, the GDP growth in the first quarter still reflects a notable slowdown compared to the 2.1 percent increase in the fourth quarter.

ING Senior Economist James Knightley noted the upwardly revised first quarter GDP growth is still poor relative to the majority of other developed markets.

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rttnews

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Pull Back 0.7% In April

New orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods pulled back by less than expected in the month of April, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Friday.

The report said durable goods orders slid by 0.7 percent in April after jumping by an upwardly revised 2.3 percent in March. Economists had expected orders to slump by 1.4 percent.

The drop in durable goods orders was partly due to a significant pullback in orders for transportation equipment, which fell by 1.2 percent in April after surging up by 5.3 percent in March.

Orders for non-defense aircraft and parts plunged by 9.2 percent in April following a 15.4 percent spike in the previous month.

Excluding the decrease in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders still fell by 0.4 percent in April after climbing by 0.8 percent in March. Ex-transportation orders were expected to rise by 0.4 percent.

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rttnews

U.S. GDP Growth Upwardly Revised More Than Expected In Q1

A report released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed that the U.S. economy grew by much more than initially estimated in the first three months of the year.

The Commerce Department said gross domestic product climbed by 1.2 percent in the first quarter compared to the previously reported 0.7 percent increase.

Economists had been expecting a more modest upward revision to the pace of GDP growth to approximately 0.9 percent.

by RTT Staff Writer

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rttnews

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Pull Back Less Than Expected In April

New orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods pulled back by less than expected in the month of April, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Friday.

The report said durable goods orders slid by 0.7 percent in April after jumping by an upwardly revised 2.3 percent in March. Economists had expected orders to slump by 1.4 percent.

Excluding a drop in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders still fell by 0.4 percent in April after climbing by 0.8 percent in March. Ex-transportation orders were expected to rise by 0.4 percent.

by RTT Staff Writer

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usbea

Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2017 (second estimate); Corporate Profits, 1st quarter 2017 (preliminary estimate)

EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EDT, Friday, May 26, 2017

BEA 17—23

* See the navigation bar at the right side of the news release text for links to data tables, contact personnel and their telephone numbers, and supplementary materials.

National Income and Product Accounts Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2017 (Second Estimate)Corporate Profits: First Quarter 2017 (Preliminary Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent in the first quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 0.7 percent. With this second estimate for the first quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; increases in nonresidential fixed investment and in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were larger and the decrease in state and local government spending was smaller than previously estimated. These revisions were partly offset by a larger decrease in private inventory investment (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2). Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 0.9 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.4 percent (revised) in the fourth. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter (table 1). Upcoming Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts The annual update of the national income and product accounts, covering the first quarter of 2014 through the first quarter of 2017, will be released along with the "advance" estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2017 on July 28. For more information, see “Preview of the 2017 NIPA Annual Update” included in the May Survey of Current Business article on “GDP and the Economy”. The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and PCE that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2). The deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a deceleration in PCE that were partly offset by an upturn in exports and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. Current-dollar GDP increased 3.4 percent, or $158.2 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $19,027.6 billion. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.2 percent, or $194.1 billion (table 1 and table 3). The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.4 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.1 percent, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent (appendix table A). Updates to GDP The percent change in real GDP was revised up from the advance estimate, reflecting upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, PCE, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. For more information, see the Technical Note. For information on updates to GDP, see the “Additional Information” section that follows. Advance Estimate Second Estimate (Percent change from preceding quarter) Real GDP 0.7 1.2 Current-dollar GDP 3.0 3.4 Real GDI … 0.9 Average of Real GDP and Real GDI … 1.0 Gross domestic purchases price index 2.6 2.6 PCE price index 2.4 2.4 For the fourth quarter of 2016, the percent change in real GDI was revised from 1.0 percent to -1.4 percent based on newly available fourth-quarter tabulations from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Corporate Profits (table 12) Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and capital consumption adjustment) decreased $40.3 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $11.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $28.4 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $26.5 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $18.4 billion, compared with a decrease of $60.4 billion. The rest-of-the-world component of profits increased $6.5 billion, compared with an increase of $45.1 billion. This measure is calculated as the difference between receipts from the rest of the world and payments to the rest of the world. In the first quarter, receipts increased $11.8 billion, and payments increased $5.3 billion. * * * Next release: June 29, 2017 at 8:30 A.M. EDT Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2017 (Third Estimate) Corporate Profits: First Quarter 2017 (Revised Estimate) * * * Additional Information Resources Additional Resources available at www.bea.gov: • Stay informed about BEA developments by reading the BEA blog, signing up for BEA’s email subscription service, or following BEA on Twitter @BEA_News. • Historical time series for these estimates can be accessed in BEA’s Interactive Data Application. • Access BEA data by registering for BEA’s Data Application Programming Interface (API). • For more on BEA’s statistics, see our monthly online journal, the Survey of Current Business. • BEA's news release schedule • NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts Definitions Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment. Gross domestic income (GDI) is the sum of incomes earned and costs incurred in the production of GDP. In national economic accounting, GDP and GDI are conceptually equal. In practice, GDP and GDI differ because they are constructed using largely independent source data. Real GDI is calculated by deflating gross domestic income using the GDP price index as the deflator, and is therefore conceptually equivalent to real GDP. Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.” Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes. The gross domestic purchases price index measures the prices of final goods and services purchased by U.S. residents. The personal consumption expenditure price index measures the prices paid for the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons.” Profits from current production, referred to as corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj) in the NIPAs, is a measure of the net income of corporations before deducting income taxes that is consistent with the value of goods and services measured in GDP. The IVA and CCAdj are adjustments that convert inventory withdrawals and depreciation of fixed assets reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost economic measures used in the national income and product accounts. For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts. Statistical conventions Annual rates. Quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR), unless otherwise specified. Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For detail, see the FAQ “Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?” Percent changes in quarterly series are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual rates, unless otherwise specified. For details, see the FAQ “How is average annual growth calculated?” Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2009). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisher-chained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). “Real” dollar series are calculated by multiplying the published quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2009) and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding. Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. In tables that display chained-dollar values, a “residual” line shows the difference between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate. Updates to GDP BEA releases three vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP: "Advance" estimates are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed and more comprehensive data as they become available. Annual and comprehensive updates are typically released in late July. Annual updates generally cover at least the 3 most recent calendar years (and their associated quarters) and incorporate newly available major annual source data as well as some changes in methods and definitions to improve the accounts. Comprehensive (or benchmark) updates are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as major conceptual improvements. The table below shows the average revisions to the quarterly percent changes in real GDP between different estimate vintages, without regard to sign. Vintage Average Revision Without Regard to Sign (percentage points, annual rates) Advance to second 0.5 Advance to third 0.6 Second to third 0.2 Advance to latest 1.1 Note - Based on estimates from 1993 through 2015. For more information on GDP updates, see Revision Information on the BEA Web site. The larger average revision from the advance to the latest estimate reflects the fact that periodic comprehensive updates include major statistical and methodological improvements. Unlike GDP, an advance current quarterly estimate of GDI is not released because data on domestic profits and on net interest of domestic industries are not available. For fourth quarter estimates, these data are not available until the third estimate.
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rttnews

Brazil Producer Prices Decline In April

Brazil's producer prices decreased in April after rising in the previous month, preliminary data from the statistical office IBGE showed Friday.

Producer prices fell 0.12 percent from March, when they rose 0.06 percent.

Prices for capital gods grew 0.09 percent and those for consumer goods increased 0.09 percent. Durable goods prices rose 0.43 percent, while those for semi and non-durable goods declined 0.01 percent.

Intermediate goods prices registered a 0.29 percent decline.

On a year-on-year basis, producer prices climbed 3.05 percent in April following 2.82 percent in March.

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