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  • Flyman7788 replied to a discussion, Cozgroup Daily Discussion
    COZfx: NZD Down in Asia After Mixed Jobs Data, Eye on Dollar After US Rebound

    COZforex: The NZD fell after mixed jobs data on Wednesday with markets keeping a close eye on the dollar following...
    COZfx: NZD Down in Asia After Mixed Jobs Data, Eye on Dollar After US Rebound

    COZforex: The NZD fell after mixed jobs data on Wednesday with markets keeping a close eye on the dollar following a US market recovery overnight.

    NZD/USD traded at 0.7331, down 0.13%. New Zealand reported fourth quarter labor cost index data with a 0.4% gain on quarter, compared to a 0.5% rise seen, and at a 1.9% pace on year as seen. As well, the unemployment rate fell to 4.5%, compared to an expected 4.7% and down 4.6% previously under a participation rate at 71.00%.

    The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of 6 major currencies, was last quoted down 0.06% to 89.52. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher at 24,914.49. The S&P 500 closed 1.75% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite closed at 7115.88, up 2.13%. The Dow Jones fell to an intraday low of 23,784 before staging a remarkable 1,100 move upside to end the day 550 points higher.

    Overnight, the dollar retreated from highs against a basket of major currencies amid mostly bearish economic data and dovish comments from St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard.

    A pair of economic reports on the labour market and trade fell short of expectations, weighing on the dollar, and reminded investors that there is some sluggishness remains in the economy.

    The US Labor Department's latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report, a measure of labor demand, showed job openings in December fell to about 5.81m, short of expectations for 5.96m.


    (COZ forex UK)
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  • On Monday the 29th of January, trading on the euro closed down. The main driver for this decline was the rise of the US dollar as well as bond yields.

    The US dollar index, which measures the...
    On Monday the 29th of January, trading on the euro closed down. The main driver for this decline was the rise of the US dollar as well as bond yields.

    The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies, rose to 89.61, while US 10Y bond yields jumped to 2.7282%.

    The euro spent the European session trading above 1.2385 before dropping to 1.2337 in the US session. This is where some technical factors from the daily timeframe came into play (two candlesticks with long wicks). By the day’s close, the euro had recovered to 1.2390.

    https://alpari.com/data/media/trunk/images/eur_300118_5a70216ef0f85.png

    In Asia, the euro is trading slightly down. The greenback is showing mixed dynamics against the majors. The euro crosses are showing a similar picture.

    I reckon that the dollar’s rise could slow down today. Trader attention will be focused on European data; the preliminary CPI data from Germany as well as GDP data from both France and he Eurozone. Today also marks the beginning of the FOMC’s two-day meeting. Markets are expecting interest rates to be maintained at 1.25% - 1.50%.

    In my forecast, I expect to see the euro drop to 1.2352 followed by a jump to 1.2400 as part of an upwards correction. Sellers shouldn’t let buyers get any further than the LB line, which currently runs through 1.2408, or else buyers will turn the trend in their favour and restore the euro to 1.2450. After the dollar’s collapse last week, its potential for growth hasn’t been completely exhausted. It’s in a position to correct itself until the 1st of February.
    See more forex exchange rates live in Alpari.com
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  • Trading opportunities on the currency pair: last week, this cross declined by 293 pips to reach 1.3199. This resulted in a double top formation, which will be confirmed should the pair drop below... Trading opportunities on the currency pair: last week, this cross declined by 293 pips to reach 1.3199. This resulted in a double top formation, which will be confirmed should the pair drop below 1.3132. My forecast has the price breaking out of the B-B channel downwards, followed by a further drop to 1.2856 (50.0% of the growth from 1.2220 to 1.3492).

    Current situation

    In my review on the EURCHF pair, I looked back at the SNB’s decision at the beginning of 2015 to abandon the cap on the EURCHF rate and lower the deposit rate to -0.75%. The pair dropped sharply by 19.6% in response to this, while the GBPCHF pair dropped by 18.8% to hit 1.2611. Since the SNB’s cap related only to the euro, the pound recovered its losses in the space of 10 months. However, after the Brexit vote, the pair dropped to hit a new low of 1.1784.
    https://alpari.com/data/media/trunk/images/236_5a6ec4d55fc85.PNG
    On the monthly timeframe, the GBPCHF pair has seen a 45% correction of the downwards movement from 1.5572 to 1.1784. The price is trading within the A-A channel. December’s candlestick closed down. This month, buyers tried to break through 1.35, but were blown off course by the retreat to safe haven assets and the dollar’s decline. In the end they only managed to get as far as 1.3209. This can happen; the franc is that kind of asset. The month isn’t over yet, but the wicks on the daily timeframe over the last 2 months have created a double top formation that is worth our attention.
    Source:https://alpari.com/en/trading/trading_signals/
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  • Flyman7788 replied to a discussion, Cozgroup Daily Discussion
    COZfx: Canada’s annual inflation cooled as anticipated in December

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.54% against the CAD and closed at 1.2321 on Friday.

    On the...
    COZfx: Canada’s annual inflation cooled as anticipated in December

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.54% against the CAD and closed at 1.2321 on Friday.

    On the economic front, Canada’s consumer price index climbed 1.9% on an annual basis in December, in line with market expectations and compared to an advance of 2.1% in the prior month.

    In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.2331, with the USD trading 0.08% higher against the CAD from Friday’s close.

    In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/CAD is expected to find support at 1.2296 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2260; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2364, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2396.

    The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.


    (COZ forex UK)
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  • Trading opportunities on the currency pair: since the euro’s collapse in 2015, it’s been trading within the boundaries of the 3-year B-B channel. Considering that the upwards impulse is running... Trading opportunities on the currency pair: since the euro’s collapse in 2015, it’s been trading within the boundaries of the 3-year B-B channel. Considering that the upwards impulse is running out of steam, my forecast is projecting an exit from the C-C channel and a decline to 1.1372. I’m expecting a downwards correction amounting to 38.2% of the upwards movement from 1.0625 to 1.1833.

    Current situation

    I haven’t done an idea on a cross with the franc since January 2015, when the Swiss franc jumped sharply against all other currencies. On the 15th of January, 2017, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) took everyone by surprise when they declined to protect the exchange rate against the euro at 1.20 and lowered the deposit rate to -0.75%.

    A lower limit was set for this cross pair in September 2011 in order to protect against deflation and to strengthen the position of Swiss exporters. For several years, the regulator intervened when necessary to keep the exchange rate above 1.20. There was no limit on the number of times the bank could intervene, which was good news for speculators, who would earn from buying euros as the rate approached 1.20.

    After the SNB’s abandonment of the euro cap, the EURCHF rate dropped by 19.6% to 0.9651. 3 years later, the rate has nearly returned to 1.20, marking a 22.6% increase to 1.1833.
    https://alpari.com/data/media/trunk/images/eurchfm_280118_5a6edaf798d1f.png
    Since the end of February 2017, the EURCHF pair has been in an uptrend. We can see from the chart that since August last year, this trend had slowed down. Last week, buyers encountered a resistance level at 1.2833. The exchange rate declined by 1.61% to reach 1.1601 over the course of the week.

    Traders opened long positions of the franc, ignoring comments by the SNB’s chairman, Thomas Jordan, who announced that the central bank would intervene in the market if necessary. The franc, along with the yen and gold, became safe haven assets in the wake of the dollar’s collapse last week. This decline was initially triggered by the US government shutdown and intensified by US Finance Minister Mnuchin’s comments that a weak dollar was good for the US.

    Taking into account the fact that the upwards trend has slowed down; I expect to the pair exit the C-C channel and drop to 1.1372. Sellers are in control for the time being. I don’t see the trend being broken, though, at least no further than the 38.2% correction of the upwards movement from 1.0625 to 1.1833. If the correction amounts to 61.8% after exiting the C-C channel, our target will drop.

    Source: https://alpari.com/en/analytics/currency/
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