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NOV
18

European open – Trade, Hong Kong, UK, gold, oil

European open - Trade, Hong Kong, UK, gold, oil - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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Stocks flat despite trade talks

European stocks are expected to kick off a new week a little flat on Monday, with more talks between the US and China failing to excite investors in the way they have been recently.

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NOV
18

Trade slowdown continues

Trade slowdown continues - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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Singapore exports fall for second month

Another Asian nation heavily dependent on exports to China continued to show how the long-lasting trading trade dispute between the US and China is affecting the global economy. Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports fell 2.9% y/y in October, more than the 0.8% reduction analysts had expected, but at least and improvement on September’s -3.3% reading.

The breakdown of the numbers showed electronic exports slumped 16.4% y/y while exports to the US were down 10.5% y/y, those to Europe -13.2% while China-headed exports fell 5.5% y/y. There was only a mild weakening of the Singapore dollar after the data, with USD/SGD rising 0.03% to 1.3608, the first intraday gains in three days.

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NOV
18

Daily Markets Broadcast 2019-11-18

Daily Markets Broadcast 2019-11-18 - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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Daily Markets Broadcast

2019-11-18

Trade hopes boost Wall Street

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NOV
16

Markets Rise on Trade Hopes Despite Rising Geopolitical Risks

The cancelation of the APEC meeting in Chile robbed the US-China trade negotiations of urgency to get a phase 1 deal hammered out to announce at a big stage. Trade talk has been mixed with the market wary of the on-again off-again nature of the statements from both sides. Trump deflated hopes this week when he was back to his aggressive rhetoric as he targeted China in his remarks in NY. Trade headlines will continue to influence the markets, even as details on a potential truce have been scarce. The White House boosted trade hopes as economic adviser Larry Kudlow and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross were on hand to talk up the probabilities of a trade deal in the near future.

The Democrats could steal some of the trade thunder as House speaker Nancy Pelosi said that the USMCA ratification could be done this year. Ahead of an election year the democrats won’t want to give Trump a trade win, while at the same time the impeachment process gets in motion.

Pound Rises on UK Elections News and Weak Dollar

The GBP gained 1 percent against the USD in the last five trading days. Cable is trading at 1.2905 and could keep appreciating after the US dollar is sold off on trade optimism. The UK elections will be in less than a month and Boris Johnson is set to build on the momentum given to the conservatives by the Brexit party. Not everything is going according to plan as Brexit party candidates will not contest seats won by Tories in 2017 but will do so elsewhere potentially dividing the vote and strengthening Labour in certain areas.



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NOV
16

OANDA Market Insights – Episode 91 (Video)

OANDA Market Insights - Episode 91 (Video) - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam previews the week’s business and market news with Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Jonny Hart.

This week Jonny and Craig discuss the Conservatives extending their lead in UK polls, US-China trade updates, escalating situation in Hong Kong, Spanish coalition negotiations, corporate earnings season and the week ahead.

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NOV
16

Gold slips as trade optimism derails safe-haven demand

Gold slips as trade optimism derails safe-haven demand - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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Gold prices slipped on Friday, on track to break a three-session winning streak as stock markets hit record highs following comments from U.S. officials that progress was being made on the “phase one” trade agreement with China. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,466.78 per ounce at 2:08 p.m. EST (1908 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled down 0.3% at $1,468.50 per ounce. “Overall trading gold has been impacted by the trade war and there is tremendous optimism with the final stages of getting stage one deal ratified,” said Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

“This has been the biggest headwind for the global economy and a major de-escalation is derailing the safe-haven demand (for gold).” Gold prices have gained more than 14% so far this year as the trade dispute between the world’s biggest economies roiled financial markets, stoking fears of a global economic slowdown and prompting major central banks to reduce interest rates. Wall Street’s main indexes hit record highs at the open on upbeat comments related to U.S.-China trade talks and strong earnings.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said U.S.-China trade talks were set to continue with a telephone call on Friday as both sides seek to hammer out a phase one trade pact. Gold prices retreated from a near one-week peak hit on Thursday, but were still set for a weekly gain of about 0.6%. “This week’s been a story of gold really trying to claw back some of the losses from the previous week, and it has done that to a degree, we are up from the lows from $1,450 and gold is attempting to get back above the 100-day moving average,” said Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler.

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NOV
16

OANDA Market Insights – Episode 91 (Podcast)

OANDA Market Insights - Episode 91 (Podcast) - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam previews the week’s business and market news with Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Jonny Hart.

This week Jonny and Craig discuss the Conservatives extending their lead in UK polls, US-China trade updates, escalating situation in Hong Kong, Spanish coalition negotiations, corporate earnings season and the week ahead.

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NOV
15

European open – UK election, trade war, gold, oil

European open - UK election, trade war, gold, oil - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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A bad week for Farage

European stocks are in the green on the final trading day of the week, bringing an end to a data-heavy and yet, rather uneventful week.

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NOV
15

How close is close?

How close is close? - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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Putting a brave face on trade talks

Yet another US official used the word “close” this morning while referring to the progress in the US-China Phase 1 trade negotiations. This time it was the turn of Larry Kudlow, White House economic adviser, who added that talks had been constructive and the “mood music” pretty good. Maybe they are getting close this time….

As has been the case more recently, the markets’ reaction to the latest close comments was modest. US indices shrugged of yesterday’s lackluster session and rose between 0.32% and 0.36%, with the NAS100 index leading the way.

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NOV
15

Asia Morning: Asia Shrugs Off Trade Fatigue

Asia is off to a bright start today, perhaps reflecting a relatively quiet night in North America, with no new visibility from either the US or China on the trade front.

Yesterday we had abysmal data from regional heavyweights China and Japan, which bought a dose of reality back to global recovery investor herd. The world’s economy has slowed, and an interim trade deal will not be an instant magic panacea to solve that, rather a band-aid to staunch the bleeding. If anything, it signals that more easing by regional central banks and monetary authorities is ahead, and may explain the rally in equities across Asia today. A negative sentiment bullish rally, who would have thought?

Overnight we saw US yields continue to ease from recent highs with the 10-years now trading 10bps lower on the week around 1.80%. The dollar also eased as trade deal fatigue set in on Wall Street, which is showing signs of losing patience with the slow progress. The fact that China and the US cannot agree even to buy/sell some pork, lower a few tariffs, and decide where to sign an interim deal, does not bode well. For either an intermediate agreement or a final one next year, where much more complicated issues will have to be addressed.

The daily flip-flopping in sentiment this week is a sign that the global FOMO trade-deal recovery trade has been locked and loaded, and with no extra magazines, momentum, and patience, is waning. I would love to be proven wrong, but one suspects that without any news this week, the fire hazard level for bullish positioning will reach dangerous next week.

Asia’s calendar is quiet with NZ Business PMI and Indonesia Balance of Trade both outperforming this morning providing a modicum of good news. Malaysia releases Q3 GDP Growth at 1200 SGT and is expected to rise by 4.90% YoY. Shortly after at 1230 SGT, Japan releases Final Industrial Production for September with a 1.10% rise YoY expected. On a quiet day, either or could have a more outsized effect on market sentiment than would usually be expected, especially if they underperform.

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