IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO) is a world leader in critical information, analytics and expertise to forge solutions for the major industries and markets that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers next-generation information, analytics and solutions to customers in business, finance and government, improving their operational efficiency and pr...oviding deep insights that lead to well-informed, confident decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000 key business and government customers, including 85 percent of the Fortune Global 500 and the world’s leading financial institutions. Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to sustainable, profitable growth. More
JAN
24
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Flash Japan PMI™ highlights further woes for global trade cycle

Japan Manufacturing PMI at lowest since Aug '16Exports fall at sharpest pace for two-and-a-half yearsTrade cycle to face increasing headwinds in 2019

According to the latest 'flash' Nikkei Japan ManufacturingPMI™, business growth halted in January, ending the longeststreak of expansion in the sector since the global financialcrisis. Survey data indicated that goods producers in Asia'ssecond-largest economy cut output for the first time intwo-and-a-half years, while new orders also fell.

Weaker demand conditions were particularly apparent on theinternational front, where exports decreased at the sharpest ratesince July 2016. The flash survey indicates that headwinds arisingfrom slowing global growth are set to persist for Asianmanufacturers as we head into 2019.

Growth-streak ends

The headline Japan Nikkei Flash Manufacturing PMI, which isbased on 85-90% of usual monthly responses, declined to 50.0 inJanuary from 52.6 in December, signalling no change in businessconditions. The stagnation ends the longest expansionary streak inJapan's goods-producing sector for over a decade. Furthermore, it'sthe lowest reading since August 2016. The fall reflected declinesin key health barometers, including output and new orders fallingin conjunction for the first time in two-and-a-half years.

Global trade cycle downturn intensifies

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JAN
23
0

Investigating IHS Markit PMI™ and ISM divergences

Analysis suggests ISM data overstated manufacturing growth inmuch of 2017 and 2018, while December plunge appears to be a falsesignalISM overestimation of growth potentially linked to panel biastowards large companiesEquity market rally and stronger global growth likely providedboost to ISM data in 2017 and 2018

Official data indicated that factory production rose solidly inDecember, rounding off a robust fourth quarter. Output jumped 1.1%during the month according to the Fed's data, rounding off a fourthquarter during which production rose 0.6% compared with the thirdquarter. The fourth quarter expansion was nevertheless below the0.9% increase registered in the third quarter, hinting at amoderation in the underlying pace of factory growth.

The official data therefore confirmed the picture of robust butmoderating growth as shown by earlier IHS Markit ManufacturingPMI™ data, flash results for which will provide insight intoJanuary's performance when published this week.

The release of the official data for December also help toclarify recent confusion over differing survey signals: therelatively robust pace of expansion signalled by the IHS Markitsurvey contrasted with a far more abrupt slowdown indicated by theISM survey.

With the plunge in the ISM index having sent a misleading signalof the health of the goods-producing sector, we look at therelationship between the two surveys and the official data, andfind that the divergences likely reflect a difference in surveypanel structure, and specifically a tendency for the ISM data to bemore influenced by global economic growth and foreign earnings thanthe IHS Markit PMI.

To read the full report, please click on the linkbelow.

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JAN
23
0

Businesses reveal growing uncertainty worldwide

Uncertainty harms future output expectations…due to heightened political and economic friction…and declining exports worldwide

Analysis of survey anecdotal evidence suggests that globalbusiness uncertainty spiked higher at the end of 2018 to reach a22-year survey high. Companies reported heightened political andeconomic risk and worries about declining exports, according to thePMI survey responses.

IHS Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index®(PMI®) surveys are based on monthly questionnairesof carefully selected companies across over 40 countries. Globally,the surveys compile responses from around 28,000 companiesmonthly.

The surveys ask contributing companies to report on changes inbusiness metrics such as activity, new orders, exports, inputprices, inventories, employment and future expectations. Alongsidethese responses, panellists are invited to provide additionalqualitative information on the reasons as to why these variableshave changed from the previous month.

Our panel comments tool collects data tracking the frequency ofwords or phrases mentioned in the qualitative reasons. Analysingthese data over time gives helpful insight into the key trendsaffecting businesses both nationally and globally, and therebyreveals the driving forces behind changes in the hard data.

Growing uncertainty from trade, political and economictensions

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JAN
23
0

Businesses reveal growing uncertainty worldwide

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JAN
23
0

Investigating IHS Markit PMI™ and ISM divergences

Analysis suggests ISM data overstated manufacturing growth inmuch of 2017 and 2018, while December plunge appears to be a falsesignalISM overestimation of growth potentially linked to panel biastowards large companiesEquity market rally and stronger global growth likely providedboost to ISM data in 2017 and 2018

Official data indicated that factory production rose solidly inDecember, rounding off a robust fourth quarter. Output jumped 1.1%during the month according to the Fed's data, rounding off a fourthquarter during which production rose 0.6% compared with the thirdquarter. The fourth quarter expansion was nevertheless below the0.9% increase registered in the third quarter, hinting at amoderation in the underlying pace of factory growth.

The official data therefore confirmed the picture of robust butmoderating growth as shown by earlier IHS Markit ManufacturingPMI™ data, flash results for which will provide insight intoJanuary's performance when published this week.

The release of the official data for December also help toclarify recent confusion over differing survey signals: therelatively robust pace of expansion signalled by the IHS Markitsurvey contrasted with a far more abrupt slowdown indicated by theISM survey.

With the plunge in the ISM index having sent a misleading signalof the health of the goods-producing sector, we look at therelationship between the two surveys and the official data, andfind that the divergences likely reflect a difference in surveypanel structure, and specifically a tendency for the ISM data to bemore influenced by global economic growth and foreign earnings thanthe IHS Markit PMI.

To read the full report, please click on the linkbelow.

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JAN
22
0

Brexit-exposed sectors in Ireland suffer as Brexit day approaches

'Most exposed' sectors see output expansion weaken at end of2018Divergent trends noted between the most- and least-exposedsectors

Irish firms operating in sectors deemed to be most atrisk1 from Brexit showed signs of stress throughout2018, according to PMI data from IHS Markit.

With ten weeks to go until the UK is due to leave the EU andTheresa May's Brexit deal rejected by the UK parliament,uncertainty among Ireland's most vulnerable firms is likely to beheightened in the near-future.

Divergence with 'least exposed' sectors growssharply

A recovery in output enjoyed by firms most exposed to Brexit in2017 largely failed to continue last year, with the gap inperformance between the 'most exposed' and 'least exposed' sectorsbecoming much larger, especially in late-2018. December saw the PMIsurvey's Output Index for the 'most exposed' sectors run some 7.7points below that for the 'least exposed' sectors, the fourthgreatest divergence seen since the EU referendum. The final quarterof the year consequently saw the average rate of output expansionease notably. Indeed, contractions in output were recorded inOctober and December 2018.

The outperformance of the 'least exposed' sectors compared totheir peers in 'more exposed' industries was also evident withregards to inflows of new business. December saw the PMI New OrdersIndex for the 'most exposed' sectors drop 5.9 index points belowthat for the 'least exposed', a much greater divergence than theaverage of 3.8 index points seen since the start of 2001. A similardivergence was seen with the rates of job creation and businesssentiment.

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JAN
18
0

Week Ahead APAC Economic Preview: Week of 21 January 2019

Flash January PMI data will provide important insights intoeconomic performance and price trends of major economies at thestart of 2019, especially for the US, where official data releasesare subject to delayed publication due to the government shutdown.December PMI surveys rattled financial markets, indicating that2018 ended on a disappointing note for many countries, pushing theglobal PMI down to a 27-month low.

In Asia, the week kicks off with a number of countries reportingGDP figures. Undoubtedly, China's GDP data will be watchedespecially closely for clues of the likelihood of further stimulus.Japan, Korea and Malaysia are also set to decide on monetarypolicy, while trade data from Thailand, Taiwan and Japan couldoffer clues as to the trade-war impact on exports, particularlyelectronics.

Elsewhere, the ECB holds its first monetary policy meeting of2019, with analysts eager to see how the central bank will respondto growing signs of renewed weakness in the eurozone economy.Updated UK labour market data will meanwhile help frame the outlookfor Bank of England interest rate policy.

Our special focus looks at the economic outlook for ASEAN in2019 at a time where supply chains are shifting due to corporateresponses to global trade tensions.

Download the article for a full diary of key economicreleases.

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JAN
18
0

Week Ahead APAC Economic Preview: Week of 21 January 2019

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JAN
17
0

Eurozone flash PMI to provide ECB policy guidance at start of 2019

Flash Eurozone PMI will be updated for January after Decembersignalled 0.1% GDP growth rate and waning price pressuresECB policy meeting coincides with PMI release

Next week sees the release of flash Eurozone PMI data on thesame day that the European Central Bank's Governing Council meetsto decide on monetary policy. The policy meeting and data will beeyed for insights into whether the recent deterioration inperformance of the eurozone economy has persisted at the start of2019, and whether the central bank may adjust its policy stance andguidance.

Disappointing data

The ECB ratcheted up its hawkish rhetoric in 2018 after theeconomic data showed a surprisingly strong start to the year, onlyto see the numbers deteriorate as the year proceeded. The worseningeconomic trends failed to prevent the ECB going ahead with aplanned ending of its quantitative easing programme in December,but with the latest PMI survey data indicating the slowest rate ofeurozone business growth for over four years alongside a markedeasing in price pressures, policymakers are at least starting toacknowledge increased downside risks to the economy.

The headline IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI®fell from 52.7 in November to 51.3 in December, its lowest sinceNovember 2014. The output index is consistent with a quarterly GDPgrowth rate of just 0.1% in December alone.

A PMI-based 'price pressures' gauge, an inflation indicatorbased on input costs and supplier delivery times (the latter beingindicative of capacity utilization), meanwhile fell from 60.5 to57.9, its lowest since October 2016.

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JAN
17
0

Eurozone flash PMI to provide ECB policy guidance at start of 2019

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