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  •  First, a review of last week's events:- EUR/USD. Recall that 60% of experts named the zone 1.1...
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  • Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 15-19, 2019




    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. Recall that 60% of experts named the zone 1.1100-1.1185 as a local...

    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 15-19, 2019




    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. Recall that 60% of experts named the zone 1.1100-1.1185 as a local bottom. As for the remaining 40%, in their opinion, support 1.1185 should have become an insurmountable obstacle, after which analysts had expected the pair to return to {1level 1.1275-1.1320. That's exactly what happened: the bottom was fixed at 1.1190, after which the pair turned around and went up, reaching the height of 1.1285 at the maximum. Then there was a bounce, and the pair completed the five-day week at the Pivot Point level of the first half of summer,1.1270;

    - GBP/USD. The line graph of the pair on D1 resembles a parabola, which, in general, reflects the two main forecasts of experts. 40% of them expected the pair to fall to the lows of December 2018 - January 2019, and it dropped to 1.2438. And then, as other analysts expected, the pair headed north, where it was stopped by resistance 1.2575;

    - USD/JPY. 40% of analysts hoped that the pair would be able to overcome the resistance of 108.80 and rise to the level 109.00-109.60. It seemed that this forecast was about to come true. However, the pair did not manage to touch the horizon of 109.00: not gaining just a couple of points, it collapsed down and returned to the strong support of June-July 2019 in the zone 107.85;

    - Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's extremely high volatility continues to keep investors and traders in constant tension, since fluctuations of 10-15-20% can not only enrich, but also ruin anyone in a short time. The reason, first of all, is the thin market. It is so thin that any fixation of profits by a major player, any more or less loud news, causes serious jumps in the rate.
    For example, the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that Facebook should not be allow ed to launch its Libra cryptocurrency until the company settles all issues with regulatory authorities, turned the BTC/USD quotes down by 15% on Wednesday. Although it would seem, bitcoin should only be better in the absence of such a powerful competitor as Libra. As a result, the upward trend of the beginning of the week was interrupted and the pair returned to July 7 values in the $11,000-11,850 zone.
    The stress tolerance of altcoins was significantly lower than that of the basic cryptocurrency. So, Ethereum (ETH/USD) lost 7% in seven days, Ripple (XRP/USD) lost 11%, and Litecoin (LTC/USD) lost 13%.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. The markets continue to be ruled by expectations of a coming decline in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve and easing of the ECB’s monetary policy. In whose direction, the euro or the dollar, will the scale swing?
    There is a high risk of slowing economic growth noted in the latest protocol of the European regulator. And if the situation does not improve in the near future (and why should it improve?), The ECB is ready to lower interest rates and increase bond purchases under the QE program. It is not necessary that this will be announced on July 25, however, the ECB meeting scheduled for this day should nevertheless bring some clarity.
    It is possible that the issue of monetary policy easing, but this time in the United States, will also be addressed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who will speak on Tuesday, July 16 at a conference in Paris. He will read a report on the features of monetary policy in the post-crisis era there, and the tonality of this report can have a strong influence on the dollar rate.
    Another important event that could affect the dollar pairs will be the publication of data on the growth rate of China's GDP for the 2nd quarter of 2019. This will take place on Monday, July 15, and many experts expect a rather strong slowdown in the economic growth of the Middle Kingdom, which can provide serious support to the US currency.
    As for trend indicators and oscillators, they are in antiphase on H4 and D1: if most of them are green in H4, the picture is the opposite on the day time frame.
    The forecasts of the majority (65%) of experts are also painted red, they expect further strengthening of the dollar and the slide of the pair to the zone of 1.1150-1.1200. The next target of the bears is the zone 1.1100-1.1115. As for the bulls, they see their goal in raising the pair to tier 1.1350-1.1410;

    https://nordfx.com/data/posts/2019/07/13/1563029447_EURUSD_15.07.2019.png



    - GBP/USD. Statistics on the labor market, wage growth rates and unemployment rates in the UK will be published on Tuesday, July 16. And on Wednesday, July 17, we will know the data on inflation. But experts expect no surprises from either of them.
    At the moment, 60% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis and most of the indicators on D1, expect the pound to test support 1.2440 again and, if successful, drop to the low of January 3, 2019 at the level of 1.2405.
    The remaining 40% of experts advise to open positions on the buy. There are two main arguments: the increase in the spread of government bonds profitability in the UK and the USA, and the rising oil prices. Both of these factors should push the pound up.The nearest resistance is 1.2755, the next is 1.2825;

    - USD / JPY. It is known that this pair has a strong correlation with the US stock market, and on the eve of the Dow Jones Industrial Average - for the first time in history! - Overcame the mark of 27.000 and reached last Friday the mark of 27.330. The pair may show growth to the 108.50-109.00 zone against this background. The next target is 109.65. However, only 30% of analysts voted for such a scenario. The majority of experts (70%), with the support of 90% of trend indicators on D1, expect the pair to decline to June lows around 106.75-107.00.
    As for the graphical analysis on D1, it draws the lateral movement of the pair in the channel 107.70-109.00 with the predominance of bullish moods;

    - Cryptocurrencies. If on H4 and D1 time frames we observe lateral movement of the BTC/USD pair with gradual consolidation around $ 11,500-12,000 for the third week, the picture looks much more optimistic on W1 and MN: the uptrend is in full swing.
    Positive predictions are made by many experts. For example, it was for the first time that the American rating agency Weiss Ratings assigned A-grade to Bitcoin, stressing that at the moment the potential benefits of investing in the first cryptocurrency exceed the risks. And Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO Mark Yusko suggested that the current market cycle could raise the price of Bitcoin to a new historical high of $30,000. Bitcoin mining is also growing. Researchers at Cambridge University have shown that today this process consumes more electricity than such countries as Switzerland or Kuwait. However, no one can predict yet at what point a new jump will occur, and experts' forecasts for the upcoming week do not go beyond the range of $9,725-13,765.


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
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  • First, a review of last week's events:- EUR/USD. As forecasted, the meeting of US President Donald T...
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  • Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 08-12, 2019




    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. As forecasted, the meeting of US President Donald Trump with PRC...

    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 08-12, 2019




    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. As forecasted, the meeting of US President Donald Trump with PRC President Xi Jinping on the final day of the Osaka summit did not put an end to the trade war. The leaders were able to agree only on a respite in the hostilities and the resumption of trade and economic consultations. However, this result was perceived by the market with moderate optimism. The dollar was strengthening its positions for the whole day of Monday, having dropped the pair almost 100 points. This was followed by a long lull, which could only be broken by the publication of data from the US labor market on Friday. The number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) increased more than three times in June compared with May (from 72K to 224K), which allowed the dollar to press the euro further. The pair almost reached the level of 1.1200, after which a small rebound followed, and it ended the trading session at 1.1225;

    - GBP/USD. The main candidate for the post of British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, continues to play the role of "horror" for markets. Johnson's statements regarding the possibility of a "hard" Brexit, without a deal, put pressure on the pound, dropping its quotes to the levels of the end of 2016 - beginning of 2017. It is natural that the positive statistics from the American labor market influenced the dynamics of the pair as well. As a result, the forecast that had been given by most experts last week turned out to be correct. As expected, the pair recorded a local low in the 1.2480 zone, after which it climbed 45 points, where it met the end of the working five-day session;

    - USD/JPY. Recall that a clear forecast for this pair could not be formed a week ago.40% of the experts had voted for the strengthening of the Japanese currency and the movement of the pair to the south. Another 30% turned their looks to the north, while the rest of the analysts just shrugged shoulders. As a result, they were all right: the pair dropped to the level of 107.52 by the middle of the week, and then turned up and on Friday, July 5, it returned to the highs of Monday, July 01. Thus, the dollar was able to win back only about 55 points from the yen in five days, practically keeping within the boundaries of the side corridor of the first half of this June;

    - Cryptocurrencies. The BTC/USD updated the two-week low last Tuesday, dropping to $9.725. That is, after an explosive growth of 155% in May-June, Bitcoin lost almost half of what it earned in these two months in just seven days, from June 26 to July 2. There is nothing surprising in this cryptocurrency volatility. And many experts talk about possible corrections of 30% and even 50%. But is it possible to call such fluctuations a “correction”?
    After the fall, Bitcoin turned around and somewhat regained its position, rising to $11,100 by the evening of Friday July 5th. Ethereum (ETH/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), following the benchmark coin, showed similar ups and downs. On average, the weekly range of fluctuations of coins was from 17% to 23%.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. Market reacted with great attention to the June data on employment in the US. According to many experts, they may influence the decision of the Fed regarding the interest rate reduction. According to forecasts, this could happen at the meeting of the Federal Reserve on July 31. A low NFP would seriously increase the likelihood of a rate cut by 25 or even 50 basis points. But, as mentioned above, NFP has grown more than 3 times. It turns out that the situation in the US economy is not so critical. So why then pursue a policy of easing and give away cheap money?
    Investors will try to hear the answer to this question from the speeches of Fed Chairman J.Powell on July 09, 10 and 11, as well as read in the lines of the minutes of the Fed meeting on Wednesday July 10.
    The ECB meeting will take place this Wednesday. Markets are also expecting additional measures to stimulate the EU economy from the European regulator. Hour X is scheduled for July 25.
    In whose direction the scales will swing is not yet clear. The easing of the monetary policy by the Fed may weaken the dollar. A similar easing by the ECB will push the euro down. And it can happen at the same time. Just one observation: the yield of 30-year German government bonds showed a decrease, up to a base point, which coincided with the dynamics of the yield of 30-year US bonds.
    By the way, couple of words about Germany. This country will publish a number of macroeconomic data on Monday, July 8, including statistics on the trade balance for May. According to forecasts, it may be positive, which will somewhat strengthen the position of the euro.
    However, despite this, 60% of experts believe that the pair has not yet reached the local bottom and expect to see it in the zone of 1.1100-1.1185. 90% of trend indicators and 80% of oscillators on H4 and D 1 agree with them. As for the remaining 40% of analysts, in their opinion, the pair will not be able to break through support in the 1.1185 zone and will return to 1.1275-1.1320. The next targets are 1.1350 and 1.1400. It should be noted that in the transition from the weekly to monthly forecast, the number of bull supporters among experts increases from 40% to 65%. They are supported by 20% of the oscillators that are now in the oversold zone;

    https://nordfx.com/data/posts/2019/07/06/1562418577_EURUSD_08.07.2019.png



    - GBP/USD. Despite statements by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, most experts believe that neither on August 1, nor even on September 19 will interest rates on the pound be reduced. Hope on the "soft" Brexit does not fade. This provides a support to the British currency, although minor. Another positive factor for the pound is that this currency has now reached the zone of a three-week low. That is why 60% of experts expect the pair to rebound up and keep in the range of 1.125 0-1.2750. The nearest resistance levels are 1.2570 and 1.2700.
    Supported by the graphical analysis on D1, 40% of analysts adhere to the opposite point of view, according to which the pair should fall to the lows of December 2018 - January 2019, to the zone 1.2405-1.2475.
    As for the indicators, the vast majority of them are red on both H4 and D1. However, already about 15% of oscillators signal the pair is oversold;

    - USD/JPY. Interest in the yen is weakening against the backdrop of the strengthening dollar and the growing attractiveness of risky assets. But it is only 40% of analysts who expect that the pair will be able to overcome resistance in the area of 108.50-108.80 and rise to the echelon of 109.00-109.60. The remaining 60% of experts believe that the pair will move for some time in the side channel 107.55-108.50, attempting to break through its lower boundary, and, if successful, can sink to the horizon 106.75. 15% of oscillators on H4 and D1, which are in the overbought zone, signal about the possible movement of the pair downwards;

    - Cryptocurrencies. In general, the news background is positive for the crypto market. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continue to attract major experienced investors. For example, according to Bloomberg, the billionaire from the “old guard”, 75-year-old Henry R. Kravis, could not resist either and has recently become an investor in the cryptocurrency fund of ParaFi Capital. Interest in Bitcoin has peaked in the past 17 months. The subject has bypassed by the number of requests in Google Donald Trump and Kim Kardashian, who previously occupied the first and second places. Even the Chinese authorities have changed their attitude to cryptocurrencies. In the report of the official information agency of the country, Xinhua, bitcoin was called an asset that has the characteristics of an ideal “safe haven” for investors.
    The optimistic forecast remains the same: $50-100 thousand per BTC coin in the next one and a half years. At the same time, “correction” drop downs are possible, reaching 50 percent or more. In the meantime, 30% of experts say that the BTC/USD pair may drop to support $9,200, 40% expect it to rise to a height of $14,000, and 30% talk about lateral movement in the channel $9,725-12,200.


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
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  • Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 01-05, 2019




    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. It was two weeks ago that most experts predicted the rebound of the...

    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 01-05, 2019




    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. It was two weeks ago that most experts predicted the rebound of the pair up. The target for the bulls was to return to the level of 1.1350, and then rise to the zone 1.1420-1.1450. This forecast came true, if not by 100%, then by 99%: the pair recorded a local high at the height of 1.1411 on June 25. There followed a slight reversal after that, and, waiting for the results of negotiations at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, the pair turned into a sideways trend in the narrow channel 1.1345-1.1390, ending the working week at 1.1370;

    - GBP/USD. After jumps of 250 points in the second decade of June, the British currency calmed down a bit, and the past week was relatively calm for it. The pair returned to the corridor 1.2650-1.2765 and finished the week near the strong support/resistance zone 1.2700;

    - USD/JPY. The currency of the G20 host country, Japan, came close to the monthly Pivot Point as well. In the run-up to the meeting of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the G-20 leaders meeting, demand for safe haven currencies fell slightly, pushing off from the low of the last 5.5 months at 106.77, the pair rose to 107.90 yen for 1 US dollar;

    - Cryptocurrencies. “Bitcoin does not stop!”, some exclaim. “It is easily stopped,” others grin. One thing is clear: those who were the first to take the train leaving in the right direction and got off at the right stop can get a huge profit. Those who jumped into the last car or mixed up the trains will receive huge losses.
    Bitcoin grew from $7,500 to $13,765 just in the last three weeks, that is, more than 80%. And then, in just two days, it crashed to $10,390, shrinking 25%. And the next day, again an increase of 15%...
    Interestingly, at the time of the BTC fall by 25%, the capitalization of the crypto market declined by only 13% (from $367.42 billion to $318.61 billion). This suggests that many investors are in no hurry to take profits and get rid of their bitcoins but expect its growth to continue.
    At the same time, analysts warn that one should not expect the same rise from altcoins. This is clearly seen even in the charts of the TOP cryptocurrencies, such as, for example, Litecoin (LTC/USD) or Ripple (XRP/USD). But Ethereum (ETH/USD) quite accurately repeats the dynamics of the reference coin.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. Markets do not expect any breakthrough solutions from the work of the G20 summit. The bilateral talks between the leaders of the world's most powerful economies at this forum, and, first of all, the talks between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Trump on Saturday June 29, are of much greater interest. Investors are hoping for a decrease in the intensity in the trading opposition of these countries, and if this happens, on Monday trading in the foreign exchange market may open with gaps.
    However, many analysts still look at this event calmly enough and believe that there will be no global truce in this war. Tariffs have affected 10,000 categories of goods from China, and one of the conditions voiced by Beijing, is the cancellation by the United States of all the existing duties. The probability that Trump will go to such a step is close to zero. The ban on cooperation with the Chinese company Huawei is unlikely to be lifted either. The parties will warmly smile at each other, shake hands, but hardly any of them will make serious concessions. Such a zero (or minimal) result of the meeting will allow Trump, on the eve of the presidential election in the United States, to announce his next “victory”, and for China to gain time.
    In such a situation, the US Federal Reserve will become an important figure in this “chess game”, which, against the background of falling global stock indices, will still be forced to ease its monetary policy, which will lead to a weakening of the US currency.
    The weaker US macroeconomic data, which will be released next week, may push the Fed to reduce interest rates. Indicators of the ISM business activity index will be known on July 1 and July 3, and data from the labor market (including NFP) will traditionally be made public on the first Friday of the month, July 05
    A quarter of experts believe that the Fed may cut rates by 25 or even 50 basis points very soon, at its meeting on July 31. The market hopes to get more accurate signals from the speeches of FOMC member Richard Clarida in Finland on July 1 and Fed Vice Chairman John Williams on July 2 in Zurich.
    On the other hand, the political risks and economic problems of the Eurozone have not disappeared. And it is not excluded that the ECB will also undertake an additional package of measures to stimulate the economy, and this will happen at the meeting on July 25.
    It is not possible to give any specific forecast for the upcoming week, since the opinions of the experts are almost equally divided. However, if you go to the monthly and medium-term forecasts, 75% of analysts believe that the pair will definitely make another attempt to update the lows of spring 2019 and still break through the support in the 1.1100 zone. The following targets for bears are 1.0900 and 1.0800. In the opinion of the remaining 25% experts, the 1.1100 zone is the limit of the fall, and the pair expects growth to the zone of 1.1530-1.1650.
    As for the indicators, most of the trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are colored green. However, it is already 20% of oscillators that give signals that the pair is overbought;

    - GBP/USD. British Prime Minister Theresa May gradually fades away, and her most likely successor, Boris Johnson, becomes the main newsmaker on Brexit. He stated last week that, becoming the head of the government, he would do everything possible to preserve the possibility of “hard” withdrawal of his country from the EU, without a deal. According to Johnson, such a threat will strengthen his position in negotiations with the European Union, and for this the politician is even ready to set a recess in the work of Parliament.
    The markets have already reacted to such rhetoric by the pound falling against the euro. As for GBP/USD, here, most experts (65%) expect the British currency to further weaken, and the pair will fall first to 1.2475-1.2500 and then, during July, to January 3, 2019 low, 1.2400.
    35% of analysts still keep optimism and hope for a positive course of negotiations with the EU. In this case, the pair will continue to move up. The immediate goals are 1.2775 and 1.2830, then 1.2930.
    The compromise option in the form of cyclic movement on the channel 1.2500-1.2860 is offered by graphical analysis on D1;

    - USD/JPY. As already mentioned, the most likely outcome of the meeting between President Trump and Chairman X on the G20 is the continuation of endless and fruitless talks between the two countries. In such a situation, global stock indices are waiting for a fall, US monetary policy is easing, and the dollar is weakening. Investors will naturally respond to all this by increasing the demand for defensive assets, including the yen.
    However, this not a case for one day, and not even one week. In the meantime, only 40% of experts and D1 graphical analysis vote for the strengthening of the Japanese currency and the movement of the pair to the south. Another 30% turned their looks to the north, while the rest of the analysts just shake shoulders. Approximately the same situation is with the oscillators and trend indicators on D1.
    Support levels are in zones 106.80-107.00, then 105.50-106.00. Resistances are at 108.85, 109.70 and 110.65;

    - Cryptocurrencies. - Morgan Creek Digital's founder and partner, Anthony "Pomp" Pompliano has predicted the growth of Bitcoin to $100 thousand in his letter addressed to the company's customers. In his opinion, the probability of such a development in the next 2.5 years is 70-75%.
    A similar forecast is given by a well-known trader and analyst Peter Brandt. “Bitcoin is looking at $100,000. The BTC/USD pair is going through the fourth parabolic phase since 2010. No other market has looked like this on logarithmic graphics in my 45 years of trading,” he writes.
    But one of the Fundstrat Global Advisors founders Tom Lee as well as 45 experts believe that Bitcoin expects a powerful correction. And it’s not at all the fact that the fall of BTC / USD by 25% on July 26-27 was exactly that. Analysts do not rule out a decrease in the pair to $7,500-8,000.
    As for the altcoins from the TOP-10, judging by the capitalization graphs, they are gradually losing ground to digital currency No. 1. Thus, it is only Bitcoin that has shown growth over the past 12 months, increasing its share in the total market capitalization from 41% to 66%. The share of the other coins either falls or, at best, remains at the same level.

    http://nordfx.com/data/posts/2019/06/29/1561816798_CRYPTO_MARKET_CAPITALIZATION.png



    P.S. As forecasted above, the meeting of US President Donald Trump with PRC President Xi Jinping on the final day of the Osaka summit did not put an end to the trade war. The leaders were able to agree only on a respite in the hostilities and the resumption of trade and economic consultations on the basis of "mutual respect and equality."


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
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