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  • First, a review of last week's events:- EUR/USD. On Thursday, November 07, the US markets updated hi...
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  • Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 11 – 15, 2019




    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. On Thursday, November 07, the US markets updated historical...

    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 11 – 15, 2019




    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. On Thursday, November 07, the US markets updated historical highs after reports of the US and China willingness to remove duties as new parts of the Trade Treaty are being signed. Speculators have turned their backs on traditional safe havens such as bonds, yen and gold. The European currency has also become cheaper against the dollar: investors expect the US macroeconomic indicators to improve after the US-China trade war ends. And although it is still a long way to signing a full-fledged agreement, analysts believe that Donald Trump will no longer make any sudden moves ahead of the upcoming US presidential election.
    Last week 40% of experts, supported by graphical analysis, voted for the reduction of the Euro. 10% of the oscillators pointed that the European currency was overbought, which is a strong signal for the trend to change. In the case of a breakdown of the lower border of the side channel 1.1075-1.1175, the bearish scenario provided for a decrease of the pair to support in the 1.1000 zone. This was what happened in reality: by the end of the week session, the pair was at 1.1016, and the final chord was set at 1.1020;

    - GBP/USD. As expected, the Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged at 0.75%. But what analysts did not expect was that two of the nine members of the monetary policy Committee would vote to cut the rate to 0.50%. These two votes were enough for the pound to lose more than 70 points.
    In general, as expected, the pound followed in the wake of the Euro. And if the EUR/USD pair lost about 150 points in five days, the British currency fell by 170 points, ending the week at 1.2780;

    - USD/JPY. As mentioned above, the progress in the US-China talks reflected on the attractiveness of the yen as a safe-haven currency. As a result, the fall of the Japanese currency against the dollar at the maximum on Thursday 07 November amounted to 130 points. The pair met the end of the five-day period at the level of 109.22;

    – cryptocurrencies. As for the news background, so strongly affecting the quotes of digital currencies, the past week was not particularly outstanding. Therefore, Bitcoin quietly moved along the consolidation line in the corridor $9,100-9,500 until Friday. However, November 08 brought disappointment to investors and traders who opened long positions. The reference cryptocurrency went down sharply and, having lost 6% of its value in a few hours, found a local bottom at the level of $8,680.
    It is difficult to say unequivocally what was the reason for such a fall. Fans of technical analysis refer to the narrowing triangle on the 4-hour BTC/USD chart. The reason could be the news about another – the seventh this year – hacking of a cryptocurrency exchange. This time, hackers withdrew funds in 23 digital assets totaling about $500 thousand from the Vietnamese exchange VinDAX.
    Speaking of digital assets. The past week is interesting because a number of top altcoins did not follow in the wake of the main cryptocurrency but demonstrated independent dynamics. Unlike Bitcoin, which went to the south, Ethereum (ETH/USD) completed the seven-day period in the same place where it began, and Litecoin (LTC/USD) put up by 5%.
    Ripple was different. It should be noted that, despite the efforts of the management of Ripple, the clouds over this token continue to thicken. It "shrunk" by 90% in 2018-2019. The last week was no exception. The week volatility of the XRP/USD pair was about 14%, and it fell to the level of 0.2710 on Friday 07 November.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. In the coming week, we are expecting a lot of significant economic events. Among them the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell in the US Congress in the middle of the week should be noted. Also, the formation of local trends may be influenced by inflation data in the United States on Wednesday 13 November, the Eurozone GDP estimate on Thursday 14 November, and data on retail sales in the United States on Friday 15 November.
    The rate of inflation in the United States should be seen with a special attention, because if inflation for October is much lower than the forecast, the Fed may decide on the fourth this year's interest rate cut next month.
    And, of course, the market will listen carefully to the news about the progress of the US-China trade war. There are many chances that the optimism associated with the decision of the parties to phase out customs tariffs will continue this week. Investors are also expecting some positive news from US President Trump's meeting with Chinese President XI Jinping in December. That is why 65% of experts voted for the further strengthening of the dollar and the decline of the Euro to the zone 1.0940-1.0990. The further target is the minimum of October 01, 1.0880.
    Graphical analysis and indicators show a rare unanimity with analysts: 90% of oscillators and 100% of indicators are colored red.
    Only 20% of experts and 10% of oscillators expect the pair to grow, signaling it is oversold. The nearest resistance zone is 1.1075, then 1.1110 and 1.1180.
    And finally, the remaining 15% of analysts talk about a sideways trend. Over the past four weeks, the pair has formed a double-headed top, and experts expect it to stay at its base for some time, moving in the range of 1.0990-1.1075;

    https://nordfx.com/data/posts/2019/11/09/1573313583_EURUSD_11.11.2019.png



    - GBP/USD. The UK economy is experiencing constant difficulties because of the uncertainty due to Brexit. There was a decline in the construction industry by 1.3% in the 2nd quarter of this year and a drop in industrial production, caused, among other things, by the closure of several automobile plants. For this reason, data on UK GDP in the 3rd quarter, which will be known on Monday 11 November, can cause serious jumps in the British currency. According to the forecast, GDP growth could reach +0.3% against -0.2% in the previous quarter, which will push the pair up.
    The main driver of the GBP/USD pair will remain the dollar. As in the case of the Euro, 65% of experts, graphical analysis on D1 and the vast majority of indicators are waiting for its strengthening and the fall of the pound. Supports are at 1.2700, 1.2650 and 1.2550 levels.
    As for the remaining 35% of analysts, they believe that after reaching the lower limit of the three-week side channel 1.2770-1.3000, the pair will turn around and go north. 15% of oscillators on H4 and D1 agree with this as well, giving signals that the pair is oversold;

    - USD/JPY. The situation with the Japanese currency is similar to the Euro and the pound. It is also under pressure from improving macroeconomic indicators of the United States and China after the signing of the "Peace Treaty".
    On Thursday, November 14, data on Japan's GDP growth in the 3rd quarter will be released. Analysts are already predicting a slowdown in the Japanese economy. So the Japanese yen will have another reason to weaken in the short term, with which 65% of experts agree. The nearest resistance level is 109.50, then 110.00 and 110.70.
    Only 10% of analysts have voted for the strengthening of the yen and the decline of the pair, and 25% believe that the pair will move sideways along the Pivot Point 109.00;

    – cryptocurrencies. The Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index deviated from the average value and moved closer to the fear zone by the end of the week. According to the classical interpretation, this position is a reason to think about opening long positions. However, investors have recently become much more cautious and expect all sorts of traps from sharp price spikes.
    60% of experts remain pessimistic as well. So, according to Bloomberg analysts, the first cryptocurrency has a chance to fall to the level of $8,000 before the end of the year. The growth of the BTC/USD pair, as already mentioned, will be hampered by sales due to fears of "burning". However, despite this, 40% of experts believe that bitcoin will still be able to meet the onset of 2020 in the $10,500-11,000 zone.
    For those who do not want to be nervous, daily watching the schedule of quotations, here is a piece of advice from the Director of the American bitcoin exchanger BitInstant Charlie Shrem. In his opinion, "the best way to invest in bitcoin is to hide 5 to 10 BTC in a cold wallet, and in such a way that you yourself can not access them for 20 years." "I do believe," he said, " that in 20 years 5-10 Bitcoins will be the money that will change your life for the better. Bitcoin will survive even a nuclear disaster, while banks and paper money will literally burn."


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
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  • Successful Traders - Successful Company. NordFX Shares Its Expertise with Traders in Vietnam and Beyond




    One of the main priorities of NordFX is to improve the skills of traders, aimed at...

    Successful Traders - Successful Company. NordFX Shares Its Expertise with Traders in Vietnam and Beyond




    One of the main priorities of NordFX is to improve the skills of traders, aimed at improving the results of their trading in the financial markets.

    Constantly developing this direction, the company offers its customers the opportunity of both online and offline training. This is especially important in view of the constant updating and expansion of the range of products and tools that they can use in their work.

    In addition to a wide range of currency pairs, NordFX clients can make transactions with major cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin and top altcoins, trade precious metals, oil, as well as open trading positions on major stock indices, such as Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nikkei, etc.

    NordFX Investment Funds are also of great interest, as they provide investors with access to shares of the world's largest companies, such as Apple, Ferrari, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Microsoft, Visa, Google, Alibaba and many others, even with a small capital.

    At the moment, when visiting the NordFX website, the company's clients can take advantage of an impressive library and video library of educational materials designed for both beginners and experienced traders. This year Most Concise Forex Electronic Encyclopedia, written specifically for those who are just beginning to dive into the world of currency trading, has been published. And, of course, seminars are of great importance, which are conducted by both the company's employees and NordFX partners with extensive trading experience.

    Thus, an event was held this October in the largest industrial center of Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh City, organized in an unusual form – in the form of a talk show, which was attended by representatives of TraderViet forum and NordFX, who answered questions from a large audience. During this talk show, each of its 130 participants was able to try their luck in a specialized quiz, share their knowledge, communicate with like-minded people, as well as get memorable gifts and souvenirs from NordFX.

    https://nordfx.com/data/posts/2019/10/29/1572333067_Vietnam_Seminar_28.10.19.png



    It should be noted that this is not the only event held by NordFX in Vietnam. Just a month before, the company took part in the Saigon Financial Education Summit (SFES), and on November 09, 2019, we are looking forward to meeting everyone at Vietnam Traders Fair, which will be held in one of the most fashionable hotels in Ho Chi Minh City – Windsor Plaza Hotel. The admission is free.

    You can find the details at https://vietnam.tradersfair.com/.


    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
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  • First, a review of last week's events:- EUR/USD. Since it is not only the pound that depends on what...
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  • Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 28 - November 01, 2019




    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. Since it is not only the pound that depends on what...

    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 28 - November 01, 2019




    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. Since it is not only the pound that depends on what happens in the framework of Brexit, but also the Euro, to begin with, we will tell you what the situation looks like with the UK's exit from the EU a week before this exit (if it happens of course). And the situation looks like... a vicious circle.
    On the one hand, Prime Minister Boris Johnson refuses to withdraw his draft EU withdrawal Agreement until Parliament agrees to an election on December 12. But the Parliament does not agree, because the opposition wants Johnson to rule out the option of leaving without an Agreement with the EU, as well as for the EU to agree to an extension of the terms of this exit. The EU, for its part, before deciding on how long to extend Brexit, is waiting for the consent (or disagreement) of Parliament for early elections on December 12.
    Is everything clear? Or not? Judging by the reaction of the markets, it is difficult to understand the current situation, but it is even more difficult to make any predictions. That is why we did not see any significant jumps in quotations last week. The Euro weakened slightly against the dollar, but this fall was only 100 points, and the pair ended the five-day session at 1.1080.
    In addition to the endless uncertainty with Brexit, additional pressure on the Euro is certainly exerted by the slowing European economy. Despite the efforts of the ECB, inflation can not reach the target level of 2%. In September, the European regulator lowered its key interest rate to negative -0.5% and announced its intention to resume the program of quantitative easing (QE). On October 31, the current head of the ECB leaves his post, and it is possible that with the arrival of the new head, Christine Lagarde, the policy of the European Central Bank will undergo some changes. But at the moment, from the point of view of investors, the advantage is on the side of the dollar, as the US Federal Reserve rate is positive and is 2%;

    - GBP/USD. So, instead of bringing clarity, the vote on the terms of Brexit in the UK Parliament on October 19 confused the situation even more. As a result, "super Saturday" did not lead to super jumps in the financial markets, but caused only a smooth decline in the British currency by about 200 points, returning the quotes to the levels of seven days ago, to the 1.2825 zone;

    - USD/JPY. Giving a forecast for this pair the previous week, we noted a complete confusion and discord among both analysts and technical analysis tools. It seems that speculators have lost interest in the Japanese currency for a while, as a result, the pair moved in the corridor 108.45-108.75 most of the time. Two attempts of the bears to reverse the situation can not be taken into account, as the pair very quickly returned to this super-narrow channel, only 30 points wide, closer to the upper border of which it put the final point, freezing at 108.65;

    – cryptocurrencies. As one analyst put it, the head of Facebook "hammered the last nail into the lid of the cryptocurrency coffin" last week. More precisely, Zuckerberg and congressmen hammered it together during his appearance before the House of Representatives Financial Service Committee. Congressmen have not only expressed concern about the spread of cryptocurrencies in general and the Libra project in particular. They said cryptocurrencies pose a threat to the traditional currency market and could be used to finance criminal activity and money laundering. But this is not all: during the hearings, a proposal was made to think about a bill on a complete ban of cryptocurrencies.
    As for Mark Zuckerberg, he said that Libra will not be launched until it receives the permission of the regulator. And in general, according to him, Libra is a risky project, and he, Zuckerberg, is not at all sure that this initiative of his is able to bring him profit.
    Recall that shortly before, against the background of problems with the American legislation, Telegram "turned on the back speed" and postponed the launch of its TON cryptocurrency.
    We have repeatedly written that the crypto market depends on the news background as much as possible. And the news from the US Congress led to the fact that on Wednesday October 23, the benchmark currency collapsed to a five-month low, shrinking by almost $1,000 in a day, and reaching the bottom at $7.330.
    But the crypto surprises did not end there, and it turned out that it was too early to bury this market. On Friday, October 25, the market literally exploded, and the bitcoin exchange rate made an incredible jump of $3,000, adding a maximum of 40% and reaching $10,500.
    This was the largest increase since February 2014., and it was caused by news again: that Chinese President XI Jinping supported the development of blockchain. At the same time, the editorial of the Chinese newspaper People's Daily, which reported on this statement, doesn't have a word about bitcoin or cryptocurrencies in general, but the bulls did not need them.
    Following bitcoin, almost all altcoins from the TOP 100 went up. Ethereum (ETH/USD) jumped almost 30%, ripple (XRP/USD) – 31%, litecoin (LTC/USD) – 35%.
    As a result, coin owners and traders who have already opened long positions on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were able to get a very significant profit. Those who "jumped into the last car of the departing train" suffered no less significant losses: the BTC/USD pair turned around very quickly and collapsed to the level of $9,055 – a powerful support on which it relied since mid-June.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. Some analysts believe that the coming week may be the "hottest" this year. In addition to the fact that the UK may leave the European Union on Thursday, October 31, the day before, on Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve may lower the interest rate on the dollar from 2.0% to 1.75%. It seems that the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell has succumbed to the exhortations of President Trump. His office has already launched a $60 billion monthly asset purchase program In October, and now here is another step toward stimulating the American real sector. Powell does not want to call what is happening a quantitative easening (QE) for some reason, but perhaps he is right: a number of experts believe that there is just another emission of the dollar mass and pumping the economy with unsecured money. With a certain degree of probability, this is due to the upcoming presidential elections in the United States. And Trump, who is seeking re-election to the second term, is pressing the Fed to cut the rate further, down to zero.
    Shortly before the Fed meeting, on October 30, preliminary data on US GDP will be known and, according to forecasts, it will show a slowdown in the economic growth in the III quarter from 2.0% to 1.6%. If so, Trump will get another lever of pressure on Powell and the Fed led by him.
    As for other events of the coming week, it is worth noting the preliminary estimate of the GDP growth and inflation data in the Eurozone, which will be known on Thursday 31 October. Data on the US labor market (including NFP) and the business activity index from ISM will traditionally be released on Friday, November 01.
    Summing up the forecasts of experts for the coming week, it has not been possible to form any definite opinion: 50% are for the fall of the pair, 50% are for its growth. A similar discrepancy is observed in the readings of indicators on D1. This is due to uncertainty and the decision of the Federal Reserve on the interest rate, and with the exit/non-exit of Britain from the EU.
    It should be noted that even if there is no exit without a deal and Brexit gets a delay, it can still have a negative impact on the Euro exchange rate, as a result of which the pair will rush to the minimum of October 01 in the area of 1.0880, which can be reached during November. 70% of experts agree with this forecast. The main supports are located at 1.1065, 1.1000 and 1.0940 levels.
    The signing of the agreement with the EU, supported by the UK Parliament, will push the pair up into the 1.1350-1.1400 zone. Resistances are at 1.1180, 1.1240 and 1.1300;

    - GBP/USD. Most experts (60%) do not expect anything good for the pound in the near future. In full agreement with the graphical analysis on D1 and 80% of the indicators on H4, they are waiting for the pair to fall to the level of 1.2500. Supports are 1.2770 and 1.2580.
    On the other hand, 20% of oscillators on H4 already give signals the pair is oversold, and 90% of their "colleagues" on D1 are painted green. 85% of trend indicators on D1 are looking to the north as well, the target is the height of 1.3200.
    There were only 30% of experts in the list of "green activists" this week. The remaining 10% refused to give any forecasts and, perhaps, they are right: British politicians are able to turn any arguments, calculations and forecasts to dust;

    - USD/JPY. In theory, the targets for the yen have remained unchanged. Support zones are 107.00, 106.65 and 105.70, those of resistance are109.00 and 109.85. But this is in theory. In reality, long-term bonds, with which the Japanese currency is strongly correlated, remain squeezed in a narrow range, curbing the risk appetite of investors. Of course, the above events of the week, as well as the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate on Thursday 31 October could fuel interest in the yen, but this is again in theory. With almost 100% probability, the regulator will leave the interest rate unchanged at -0.1%.
    Interestingly, analysts at J. P. Morgan Chase believe negative Central Bank rates are a "bad idea" that only prevents economies from emerging from recession. 80% of the surveyed experts agree with them, expecting that the yen will continue to fall, the pair will finally break through the upper limit of the corridor 108.45-108.75 and rise a little further to the north. But the graphical analysis on H4 predicts the continuation of this sideways trend at least for the first half of the week;

    – cryptocurrencies. So, during the week, the BTC/USD pair first rapidly lost $1,000 in price, then even more rapidly rose by $3,000, and then collapsed again, shrinking in price by $1,445. Trying to give any forecast in the conditions of such volatility is a thankless task. Focusing on technical analysis tools is generally useless. It is necessary to give the market the opportunity to calm down a little and understand what the Chinese President really meant.

    https://nordfx.com/data/posts/2019/10/26/1572101486_BTCUSD_28.10.2019.png




    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
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  • First, a review of last week's events:- EUR/USD. The main theme last week was undoubtedly Brexit. Ne...
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