JUL
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Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 1st quarter 2018

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Led Growth in the First Quarter

Real estate and rental and leasing; information; and nondurable goods manufacturing were the leading contributors to the increase in U.S. economic growth in the first quarter of 2018. According to gross domestic product (GDP) by industry statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, 14 of 22 industry groups contributed to the overall 2.0 percent increase in real GDP in the first quarter.

For the real estate and rental and leasing industry group, real value added&#8212a measure of an industry's contribution to GDP&#8212increased 3.3 percent in the first quarter, after increasing 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter. The first quarter growth primarily reflected an increase in the housing services industry.Information services increased 6.8 percent, after decreasing 0.2 percent. The first quarter growth primarily reflected increases to both broadcasting and telecommunications and the publishing industry.Nondurable goods manufacturing increased 3.8 percent, after increasing 3.1 percent. The first quarter growth primarily reflected increases in petroleum and coal products, as well as food, beverage and tobacco products.Other highlightsTransportation and warehousing increased 6.4 percent, after increasing 5.4 percent, primarily reflecting an increase in air transportation.Real GDP growth slowed to 2.0 percent in the first quarter, from 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter. Wholesale trade was the leading contributor to the deceleration in real GDP growth in the first quarter. Real value added for the industry group increased 0.2 percent, after increasing 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter.Durable goods manufacturing increased 3.2 percent, after increasing 7.2 percent, and was the second leading contributor to the slowdown.Gross output by industry

Economy-wide, real gross output&#8212principally a measure of an industry's sales or receipts, which includes sales to final users in the economy (GDP) and sales to other industries (intermediate inputs)&#8212increased 2.7 percent in the first quarter. This reflected an increase of 3.2 percent for the private goods-producing sector, 3.0 percent for the private services-producing sector, and 0.3 percent for the government sector. Overall, 13 of 22 industry groups contributed to the increase in real gross output.

Real gross output for durable goods manufacturing increased 2.8 percent in the first quarter, after increasing 9.0 percent in the fourth quarter. The increase was primarily attributed to motor vehicles, bodies and trailers, and parts manufacturing.Transportation and warehousing increased 6.5 percent, after increasing 0.7 percent. This was the largest increase since the fourth quarter of 2014 and primarily reflected increases in air and truck transportation.Information services increased 7.2 percent, after increasing 4.2 percent. This industry has increased for seven consecutive quarters.

Upcoming Comprehensive Update of the Industry Economic Accounts

The comprehensive update of the industry economic accounts will be released along with the estimate of quarterly GDP by industry for the second quarter of 2018 on November 1, 2018. Annual statistics will be revised back to 1997 and quarterly estimates will be revised back to the first quarter of 2005. All revisions will be fully consistent with the results of the comprehensive update of the national income and product accounts, which will be released on July 27, 2018.

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© BEA

JUL
20
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Seasonally adjusted government deficit decreased to 0.1% of GDP in the euro area

In the first quarter of 2018, the seasonally adjusted general government deficit to GDP ratio stood at 0.1% in the euro area (EA19), a decrease compared with 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2017. In the EU28, the deficit to GDP ratio stood at 0.5%, a decrease compared with 0.6% in the previous quarter.Original link
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© Eurostat

JUL
20
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Government debt slightly up to 86.8% of GDP in euro area

At the end of the first quarter of 2018, the government debt to GDP ratio in the euro area (EA19) stood at 86.8%, compared with 86.7% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2017. In the EU28, the ratio decreased from 81.6% to 81.5%. Compared with the first quarter of 2017, the government debt to GDP ratio fell in both the euro area (from 89.2% to 86.8%) and the EU28 (from 83.6% to 81.5%).Original link
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© Eurostat

JUL
20
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Economic Review - Week of 20 July 2018

Flash PMI surveys for the US, Eurozone and JapanECB monetary policy meetingUS, France and South Korea GDP updates

The release of flash PMI data for July will add clues as toglobal economic growth trends as we move into the second half of2018, and will be scrutinised in particular for signs of anyadverse effects from escalating tariffs and trade wars. The Junedata showed US and Japanese exports falling into decline, with euroarea export growth having meanwhile slowed sharply compared toearlier in the year.

The week also sees the ECB's monetary policy meeting and secondquarter GDP releases in the US, France and South Korea.

US GDP and tariff impact under scrutiny

Second quarter GDP numbers are expected to show the US economygaining momentum after the 2.2% annualised rate seen in the openingthree months of the year. Recent nowcast models point to anincrease in the region of 5%. However, the backward-looking GDPnumbers will need to be viewed alongside forward-looking surveyflash PMI survey data for July for a fuller picture of growth,hiring and price trends.

The IHS Markit PMI surveys showed US growth perking up in thesecond quarter thanks to a robust service sector and solid domesticdemand. But the surveys also showed price pressures rising sharplyamid tariff pressures and record supply chain delays. Furthermore,around one-in-three US manufacturers listed either tariffs or risingprices as key threats to their business over the coming year, withsupply concerns also widely reported.

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© IHSMarkit

JUL
20
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Aktuell: Cycling for the Climate – ZEW Team Participates in Environmental Awareness Campaign

From 23 June to 13 July 2018, ZEW employees took part in the campaign “City Cycling – Cycling for a Better Climate” organised by the city of Mannheim in collaboration with the state of Baden-Württemberg. The goal of the initiative, which is carried out on an annual basis, is to promote climate protection whilst encouraging people to take up cycling in a fun way. In the past three weeks, those participating in the campaign have tried to clock up as many CO2-free kilometres as possible in their daily commutes or other journeys. Over the past weeks, the ZEW team was able to save around 770 kilograms of CO2, contributing to a more sustainable future in an active way.Original link
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JUL
19
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Official data confirm solid second quarter for US manufacturing, but outlook clouded by tariff and price worries

Solid second quarter for manufacturing confirmed by officialdata as output rises 0.5%But order book growth weakensTariffs and rising prices are most cited threats; only 1% seetariffs as a growth opportunity

Official data confirmed the survey data signal that USmanufacturing output growth picked up in the second quarter, butthe survey data indicate that the growth trend appears to besoftening as we head into the third quarter. Worries about theimpact of tariffs and higher prices were meanwhile reported as themost common threats to the business outlook.

According to the Fed's latest estimates of manufacturingproduction, output rose 0.5% in the three months to June comparedto the prior three months. That was up slightly from 0.4% in thethree months to March, meaning growth accelerated slightly betweenthe first and second quarters, adding to signs that the economy haspicked up momentum.

This respectable second quarter performance had already beenindicated accurately by the IHS Markit PMI survey. We use a simplemodel based on a regression using the PMI survey's output index asthe sole explanatory variable of the official growth rate (notethat we don't use the headline PMI in our model, as this compositeindex includes variables such as employment and new orders). Thismodel showed that the average PMI output index reading of 55.7 inthe second quarter was historically consistent with output risingby just over 0.5%.

By comparison, a similar regression-based model for the ISMsurvey output index produces an estimated second quarter rise of1.0% (after a 1.4% increase in the first quarter), once againhighlighting how ISM survey data appear to have been overstatingmanufacturing growth in recent years.

Softer underlying trend

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© IHSMarkit

JUL
19
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Official data confirm solid second quarter for US manufacturing, but outlook clouded by tariff and price worries

Solid second quarter for manufacturing confirmed by officialdata as output rises 0.5%But order book growth weakensTariffs and rising prices are most cited threats; only 1% seetariffs as a growth opportunity

Official data confirmed the survey data signal that USmanufacturing output growth picked up in the second quarter, butthe survey data indicate that the growth trend appears to besoftening as we head into the third quarter. Worries about theimpact of tariffs and higher prices were meanwhile reported as themost common threats to the business outlook.

According to the Fed's latest estimates of manufacturingproduction, output rose 0.5% in the three months to June comparedto the prior three months. That was up slightly from 0.4% in thethree months to March, meaning growth accelerated slightly betweenthe first and second quarters, adding to signs that the economy haspicked up momentum.

This respectable second quarter performance had already beenindicated accurately by the IHS Markit PMI survey. We use a simplemodel based on a regression using the PMI survey's output index asthe sole explanatory variable of the official growth rate (notethat we don't use the headline PMI in our model, as this compositeindex includes variables such as employment and new orders). Thismodel showed that the average PMI output index reading of 55.7 inthe second quarter was historically consistent with output risingby just over 0.5%.

By comparison, a similar regression-based model for the ISMsurvey output index produces an estimated second quarter rise of1.0% (after a 1.4% increase in the first quarter), once againhighlighting how ISM survey data appear to have been overstatingmanufacturing growth in recent years.

Softer underlying trend

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© IHSMarkit

JUL
19
0

UK survey data suggest that pay and prices to rise at faster rates

Official data points to softer pay growth despite tight labour market……while consumer price inflation holds steady at 2.4%, defying expectations of a riseSurvey data hint that increases in earnings and prices may accelerate in months ahead

Latest official data regarding employee earnings and inflation have both come in under forecasts this week, dampening expectations of the Bank of England hiking interest rates in August. But survey data suggest that pay and price pressures could pick up again in the months ahead as tight labour market conditions and greater input costs take effect.

Earnings growth softens

According to the latest official labour market data, total employee pay (which includes bonuses) rose 2.5% in the three months to May compared to a year ago, representing the slowest rate of increase since late-2017.

Softer pay growth was somewhat of a surprise given the accompanying signs of an increasingly tight labour market, which should in theory place greater upward pressure on earnings. Employment is at a record high, while the unemployment rate is at its joint-lowest since 1975 (4.2%). The latest slowdown in earnings growth occurred despite a further drop in unemployment (down 12,000) over the same period.

However, there is evidence that - in terms of hiring - there are upward pressures on salaries due to rising skill shortages. The UK Report on Jobs, compiled by IHS Markit on behalf of REC, monitors over 400 recruiters on a monthly basis, and suggests that permanent starters' salaries continued to rise sharply at the end of the second quarter. The sustained and strong upturn in starting pay hints that wider earnings growth may improve to a greater extent in the coming months.

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© IHSMarkit

JUL
19
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UK survey data suggest that pay and prices to rise at faster rates

Official data points to softer pay growth despite tight labourmarket……while consumer price inflation holds steady at 2.4%,defying expectations of a riseSurvey data hint that increases in earnings and prices mayaccelerate in months ahead

Latest official data regarding employee earnings and inflationhave both come in under forecasts this week, dampening expectationsof the Bank of England hiking interest rates in August. But surveydata suggest that pay and price pressures could pick up again inthe months ahead as tight labour market conditions and greaterinput costs take effect.

Earnings growth softens

According to the latest official labour market data, totalemployee pay (which includes bonuses) rose 2.5% in the three monthsto May compared to a year ago, representing the slowest rate ofincrease since late-2017.

Softer pay growth was somewhat of a surprise given theaccompanying signs of an increasingly tight labour market, whichshould in theory place greater upward pressure on earnings.Employment is at a record high, while the unemployment rate is atits joint-lowest since 1975 (4.2%). The latest slowdown in earningsgrowth occurred despite a further drop in unemployment (down12,000) over the same period.

However, there is evidence that - in terms of hiring - there areupward pressures on salaries due to rising skill shortages. The UK Report on Jobs, compiled by IHS Markit on behalf of REC,monitors over 400 recruiters on a monthly basis, and suggests thatpermanent starters' salaries continued to rise sharply at the endof the second quarter. The sustained and strong upturn in startingpay hints that wider earnings growth may improve to a greaterextent in the coming months.

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© IHSMarkit

JUL
19
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Labour Force, Australia

JUNE KEY FIGURES

May 2018

Jun 2018

May 18 to Jun 18

Jun 17 to Jun 18

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© absau

 
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