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PMI surveys show UK economy stalling at start of 2019

'All-sector' PMI at 50.3 in January, second-lowest sinceDecember 2012New orders deteriorate amid rising Brexit worriesHeadcounts fall for first time since July 2016Selling price inflation at eight-month low

The latest PMI surveys indicate that the UK economy stalled atthe start of the year as intensifying Brexit worries led to anincreasingly broad-based malaise. The survey results indicate thatcompanies have become increasingly risk averse and eager to reduceoverheads in the face of weakened customer demand and risingpolitical uncertainty.

Such a subdued start to the year, combined with worrying signsof global economic weakness, suggest economic forecasts for growthin 2019 are likely to be revised lower.

Economy stalls

Service sector growth ground almost to a halt in January,matching similar disappointing news in the manufacturing andconstruction sectors. The triple-whammy of weaker surveys pushedthe IHS Markit/CIPS 'all-sector' PMI down to 50.3 in January from51.5 in December. The latest reading is the lowest since December2012 with the sole exception of July 2016, when the economystumbled momentarily after the Brexit vote.

The further deterioration in January from already subdued growthat the end of last year means the past three months have seen theeconomy slip into its weakest spell for six years. Comparisons ofthe PMI with official data indicate that GDP likely stagnated atthe start of 2019 after eking out modest growth of just 0.1% in thefourth quarter.

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More than 95% of children in the EU considered to be in good or very good health

In 2017, more than 95% of children in the European Union (EU) were considered to be in good or very good general health. This percentage changes only slightly by age group, from 96.5% for those aged under five, to 95.9% for those aged five to nine and 95.2% for those aged ten to fifteen. The percentage of children whose general health was considered to be bad or very bad was under 1% for all age groups.Original link
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Volume of retail trade down by 1.6% in euro area

In December 2018 compared with November 2018, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade decreased by 1.6% in the euro area (EA19) and by 1.4% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In November, the retail trade volume increased by 0.8% in the euro area and by 1.0% in the EU28.Original link
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Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.Original link
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Retail Trade, Australia

Retail turnover falls 0.4 per cent in December (Media Release)Original link
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FEB
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Sources of Data for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples with Disability

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This information paper examines the different sources of data for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with disability collected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The paper outlines the suitability of recent collections to meeting various information needs and aims to give sufficient guidance to enable informed use of the available data.

This paper focuses on comparative analyses of ‘Severity of Disability’ and ‘Type of Disability’ data collected by the ABS in a 2012-2016 reference period, and includes the following collections:

COLLECTION AND INTERPRETATION OF DISABILITY DATA

Collecting disability data can pose particular challenges due to the complex nature of experiences that affect the physical, social and emotional well-being of individuals with disability, and their families. The subjective and variable nature of some disabilities may mean that responses are affected by factors such as a person’s energy level, pain or depression at the time of the survey. Responses may also be influenced by the episodic or seasonal nature of some conditions and the sensitivities around conditions such as mental illness/deterioration and the need for help with personal care activities.

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Retail Trade, Australia

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International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia

Australia records trade surplus of $3,681m in DecemberOriginal link
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Press Release: Student Team from Pforzheim Mentored by ZEW Receives 2018 YES! Award in Berlin

On 4 February 2019, the Parliamentary State Secretary to the Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, Christian Hirte, presented the award for the 2018 YES! – Young Economic Summit to the winning team. How can we combat child poverty and support children and adolescents in the best possible way? This question was tackled by the YES! team of Fritz Erler Schule in Pforzheim with the support of ZEW researcher Dr. Holger Stichnoth, deputy head of the Research Department “Social Policy and Redistribution” at the ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim. For their idea “High Five – Five Ways to Make a Change” the student team won the vote for the best solution...Original link
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FEB
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Global Manufacturing PMI at 2½ year low as business conditions worsen in one-in-three countries

Global PMI hits 29-month low of 50.7 in JanuaryOutput and orders close to stagnation, global exports fall forfifth straight monthUS moves up to second place in rankings as rest of worldstagnatesEleven out of 30 countries now in manufacturing downturns,including China, Germany and ItalyInput prices rise at slowest rate since June 2017

Worldwide PMI surveys indicated that manufacturing growth slowedcloser to stagnation at the start of 2019. Both output and neworders barely rose, with global exports dropping for a fifthsuccessive month.

The US moved into second place in the manufacturing rankings,with worsening trends in Asia and Europe meaning the rest of theworld slipped into stagnation for the first time since mid-2016. Ofthe 30 countries surveyed by IHS Markit, more than one-in-threereported a deterioration of business conditions in January, up fromjust two this time last year, including China, Germany andItaly.

Price pressures meanwhile eased, reflecting lower oil costs aswell as more balanced supply and demand conditions for manyinputs.

Manufacturing PMI at 29-month low

A near-stalling of manufacturing was indicated by the Januarysurveys, with the headline JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI,compiled by IHS Markit, dropping from 51.4 in December to 50.7 inJanuary. The latest reading was its lowest since August 2016.

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