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Industrial producer prices down by 0.8% in both euro area and EU28

In December 2018, compared with November 2018, industrial producer prices fell by 0.8% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In November 2018, prices decreased by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU28.Original link
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Global Manufacturing PMI at 2½ year low as business conditions worsen in one-in-three countries

Global PMI hits 29-month low of 50.7 in JanuaryOutput and orders close to stagnation, global exports fall forfifth straight monthUS moves up to second place in rankings as rest of worldstagnatesEleven out of 30 countries now in manufacturing downturns,including China, Germany and ItalyInput prices rise at slowest rate since June 2017

Worldwide PMI surveys indicated that manufacturing growth slowedcloser to stagnation at the start of 2019. Both output and neworders barely rose, with global exports dropping for a fifthsuccessive month.

The US moved into second place in the manufacturing rankings,with worsening trends in Asia and Europe meaning the rest of theworld slipped into stagnation for the first time since mid-2016. Ofthe 30 countries surveyed by IHS Markit, more than one-in-threereported a deterioration of business conditions in January, up fromjust two this time last year, including China, Germany andItaly.

Price pressures meanwhile eased, reflecting lower oil costs aswell as more balanced supply and demand conditions for manyinputs.

Manufacturing PMI at 29-month low

A near-stalling of manufacturing was indicated by the Januarysurveys, with the headline JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI,compiled by IHS Markit, dropping from 51.4 in December to 50.7 inJanuary. The latest reading was its lowest since August 2016.

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Building Approvals, Australia

Dwelling approvals decline in December (Media Release)Original link
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Building Approvals, Australia

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January 2018 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business

PMI® at 56.6%New Orders, Production, and Employment GrowingSupplier Deliveries Slowing at Slower Rate; Backlog GrowingRaw Materials Inventories Growing; Customers’ Inventories Too LowPrices Decreasing; Exports and Imports Growing

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January, and the overall economy grew for the 117th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The January PMI® registered 56.6 percent, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the December reading of 54.3 percent. The New Orders Index registered 58.2 percent, an increase of 6.9 percentage points from the December reading of 51.3 percent. The Production Index registered 60.5 percent, 6.4-percentage point increase compared to the December reading of 54.1 percent. The Employment Index registered 55.5 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the December reading of 56 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 56.2 percent, a 2.8 percentage point decrease from the December reading of 59 percent. The Inventories Index registered 52.8 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the December reading of 51.2 percent. The Prices Index registered 49.6 percent, a 5.3-percentage point decrease from the December reading of 54.9 percent, indicating lower raw materials prices for the first time in nearly three years.

“Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength, supported by strong demand and output. Demand expansion improved with the New Orders Index reading returning to the high 50s, the Customers’ Inventories Index remaining too low, and the Backlog of Orders remaining at a near-zero-expansion level. Consumption continued to strengthen, with production expanding strongly and employment continuing to expand at previous-month levels. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — continued to improve, but are negative to PMI® expansion. Inputs reflect an easing business environment, confirmed by Prices Index contraction.

“Exports continue to expand, but at the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2016. Prices contracted for the first time since the first quarter of 2016. The manufacturing sector continues to expand, reversing December’s weak expansion, but inputs and prices indicate fundamental changes in supply chain constraints,” says Fiore.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 14 reported growth in January, in the following order: Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Furniture & Related Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The only industry reporting contraction in January is Nonmetallic Mineral Products.

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U.S. International Investment Position, Third Quarter 2018

EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 10:00 A.M. EST, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2019

BEA 19-01

The U.S. net international investment position decreased to −$9,627.2 billion (preliminary) at the end of the third quarter of 2018 from −$8,845.1 billion (revised) at the end of the second quarter, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The $782.1 billion decrease reflected a $135.5 billion increase in U.S. assets and a $917.6 billion increase in U.S. liabilities (table 1).

The $782.1 billion decrease in the net investment position also reflected net financial transactions of −$24.6 billion and net other changes in position, such as price and exchange-rate changes, of −$757.5 billion (table A).

The net investment position decreased 8.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with a decrease of 14.2 percent in the second quarter and an average quarterly decrease of 4.4 percent from the first quarter of 2011 through the first quarter of 2018.

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Manufacturing on course to act as drag on UK economy in first quarter

PMI falls to 52.8 in January, second-lowest since BrexitvoteRecord stock building as firms prepare for Brexit-relatedsupply disruptionsBusiness optimism at lowest since Brexit vote

January's PMI survey showed UK manufacturing on course to act asa drag on the economy in the first quarter. Softer demandconditions, falling headcounts and growing gloom about the yearahead were widely blamed on intensifying Brexit uncertainty.Worries about Brexit-related supply disruptions meanwhile led torecord stock building.

Worsening production trend

The headline IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI dropped from asix-month high of 54.2 in December to 52.8 in January. With theexception of last October, the latest reading was the lowest sinceJuly 2016.

Output barely rose in January, with the survey registering theslowest increase in factory production for two-and-a-half years.When compared with official manufacturing data, the January PMIoutput index is commensurate with production falling at a quarterlyrate of 0.2%, suggesting the goods-producing sector will act as adrag on the wider economy in the first quarter after a largelystagnant fourth quarter (see feature at the end of this article forfurther information).

Production growth deteriorated due to relatively subdued demandconditions. A marked boost to order books at the end of last year,linked in part to pre-Brexit ordering by customers, faded inJanuary, resulting in one of the slowest increases in new businessseen over the past two-and-a-half years.

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Week Ahead APAC Economic Preview: Week of 4 February 2019

Worldwide PMI surveys on services to provide more colour oneconomic activity at start of 2019Central bank meetings in Australia, India, Thailand and thePhilippinesIndonesia Q4 GDPSpecial focus on Japan's growth outlook for 2019

Next week brings the worldwide release of service sector PMIdata that will add to the insights into economic performance andprice trends across the world. Several Asian central banks willmeanwhile meet to decide on monetary policy while Indonesiapublishes GDP data.

Elsewhere, some US data could be subject to further delay while an advance release of fourth quarter US GDPcould be postponed, but updates to the US services PMI will stillbe released as scheduled, offering an up-to-date look into the USeconomy.

Our special focus looks at the 2019 growth outlook of Japan fromthe PMI perspective.

Download the article for a full diary of key economicreleases.

Contact for further commentary: Bernard Aw or ChrisWilliamson

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Week Ahead APAC Economic Preview: Week of 4 February 2019

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Manufacturing on course to act as drag on UK economy in first quarter

PMI falls to 52.8 in January, second-lowest since BrexitvoteRecord stock building as firms prepare for Brexit-relatedsupply disruptionsBusiness optimism at lowest since Brexit vote

January's PMI survey showed UK manufacturing on course to act asa drag on the economy in the first quarter. Softer demandconditions, falling headcounts and growing gloom about the yearahead were widely blamed on intensifying Brexit uncertainty.Worries about Brexit-related supply disruptions meanwhile led torecord stock building.

Worsening production trend

The headline IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI dropped from asix-month high of 54.2 in December to 52.8 in January. With theexception of last October, the latest reading was the lowest sinceJuly 2016.

Output barely rose in January, with the survey registering theslowest increase in factory production for two-and-a-half years.When compared with official manufacturing data, the January PMIoutput index is commensurate with production falling at a quarterlyrate of 0.2%, suggesting the goods-producing sector will act as adrag on the wider economy in the first quarter after a largelystagnant fourth quarter (see feature at the end of this article forfurther information).

Production growth deteriorated due to relatively subdued demandconditions. A marked boost to order books at the end of last year,linked in part to pre-Brexit ordering by customers, faded inJanuary, resulting in one of the slowest increases in new businessseen over the past two-and-a-half years.

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