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Week Ahead APAC Economic Preview: Week of 10 December 2018

Release of flash PMI surveys give early clues to full Q4economic performance and price trends of major economiesChina data updatesECB, Philippines and Brazil set monetary policyKey UK Brexit voteSpecial focus on US-China trade war

Release of Flash December PMI surveys in the coming week willoffer early signals into the economic performance at the end of thefourth quarter. China's clutch of data updates will also receivestrong attention, while the Philippines' central bank MonetaryBoard will meet to make their monetary policy decision.

Other data highlights for Asia include updated estimates toJapan's GDP, South Korea's unemployment data as well as industrialproduction figures for Malaysia and India. Elsewhere, Brexitdevelopments in the US and the ECB's policy meeting will beespecially keenly watched.

Our special focus this week looks at recent development in theUS-China trade war.

Download the article for a full diary of key economicreleases.

Contact for further APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas or BernardAw

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© IHSMarkit

DEC
07
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Eurozone productivity slips at quickest rate in five-and-a-half years as efficiency loss in manufacturing intensifies

Eurozone productivity dips at faster, albeit slight, paceManufacturers post steepest contraction since August 2012Efficiency loss evident in Germany and FranceOutput per head broadly unchanged in Italy

November data pointed to a third successive month of efficiencyloss across the eurozone. Manufacturing was the main drag onproductivity, posting the sharpest drop in close to six-and-a-halfyears, as goods producers in France joined their counterparts inGermany and Italy in contraction. Across the eurozone serviceeconomy, workforce efficiency worsened only fractionally as Italyreturned to growth territory.

Down from 49.6 in October to 49.5 in November, the seasonallyadjusted Eurozone ProductivityPMI® - derived from IHSMarkit's national manufacturing and services PMI survey data - wasat its lowest mark in five-and-a-half years. While service sectorproductivity moved closer to stabilisation, the downturn amongfactories was the steepest since August 2012.

Germany recorded a sharper contraction in aggregate productivitythan France. The latest fall was the joint-fastest since August2012. The accelerated downturn was widespread across the twomonitored sectors. Manufacturers posted a solid drop that was themost pronounced in close to seven years amid a solid upturn inemployment and only marginal uptick in production. A quicker,albeit marginal, worsening of labour performance was noted in theservice economy.

Italy was the only nation to not see a fall in output per head.This occurred due to a deterioration in manufacturing being offsetby gains in services. The former recorded the sixth fall in as manymonths, but the rate of reduction moderated to the weakest sincemid-year. While factory production declined markedly in November,job creation was sustained. After being stationary in October,productivity at service providers strengthened as growingworkforces supported a renewed increase in business activity.

Workforce efficiency in France worsened for the first time infour months due to subdued performances in both the manufacturingand service sectors. Although slight overall, the reduction inoutput per head at factories was the fastest seen since September2015. Productivity in the service sector displayed a renewed fall,though one that was fractional.

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© IHSMarkit

DEC
07
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EZ productivity slips at quickest rate in five-and-a-half years as efficiency loss in manufacturing intensifies

Eurozone productivity dips at faster, albeit slight, paceManufacturers post steepest contraction since August 2012Efficiency loss evident in Germany and FranceOutput per head broadly unchanged in Italy

November data pointed to a third successive month of efficiencyloss across the eurozone. Manufacturing was the main drag onproductivity, posting the sharpest drop in close to six-and-a-halfyears, as goods producers in France joined their counterparts inGermany and Italy in contraction. Across the eurozone serviceeconomy, workforce efficiency worsened only fractionally as Italyreturned to growth territory.

Down from 49.6 in October to 49.5 in November, the seasonallyadjusted Eurozone ProductivityPMI® - derived from IHSMarkit's national manufacturing and services PMI survey data - wasat its lowest mark in five-and-a-half years. While service sectorproductivity moved closer to stabilisation, the downturn amongfactories was the steepest since August 2012.

Germany recorded a sharper contraction in aggregate productivitythan France. The latest fall was the joint-fastest since August2012. The accelerated downturn was widespread across the twomonitored sectors. Manufacturers posted a solid drop that was themost pronounced in close to seven years amid a solid upturn inemployment and only marginal uptick in production. A quicker,albeit marginal, worsening of labour performance was noted in theservice economy.

Italy was the only nation to not see a fall in output per head.This occurred due to a deterioration in manufacturing being offsetby gains in services. The former recorded the sixth fall in as manymonths, but the rate of reduction moderated to the weakest sincemid-year. While factory production declined markedly in November,job creation was sustained. After being stationary in October,productivity at service providers strengthened as growingworkforces supported a renewed increase in business activity.

Workforce efficiency in France worsened for the first time infour months due to subdued performances in both the manufacturingand service sectors. Although slight overall, the reduction inoutput per head at factories was the fastest seen since September2015. Productivity in the service sector displayed a renewed fall,though one that was fractional.

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© IHSMarkit

DEC
07
0

Powell, Welcoming Remarks

Thank you for the kind introduction, and thank you to the Housing Assistance Council (HAC) for inviting me to be part of this discussion of rural housing. I understand that you will shortly be presenting awards to people who are working at the local and national levels and in both the public and private sectors and whose efforts have improved housing conditions for the rural poor. All of you who work in these roles are doing your country a great service by helping to advance economic opportunity in our communities. I want to thank the award recipients for the difference you make in the lives of people in rural communities.

I am happy to report that our economy is currently performing very well overall, with strong job creation and gradually rising wages. The unemployment rate is 3.7 percent, the lowest since 1969. A strong job market has encouraged more people to participate in the labor market, another positive development. In fact, by many national-level measures, our labor market is very strong.

As those at this conference are acutely aware, however, aggregate statistics can mask important variations between different demographic and income groups, as well as significant regional differences. For example, unemployment rates in some persistently poor rural counties remain much higher than the national figures. The annual average unemployment rate in 2017 exceeded 10 percent in 27 persistently poor rural counties, and the rate was 20 percent or more in 2 of those counties. Recent Fed research found that, since 2007, labor force participation rates for those in their prime working years in rural areas have increasingly lagged rates in urban areas. Labor force participation has been particularly low for those with only a high school diploma or less.1 Research has also found that business formation and employment growth during the recovery have been concentrated in large urban areas.2 Data and research findings like these remind us that, despite positive trends in national data, the benefits of the ongoing economic expansion are still not reaching some communities.

Through the Fed's 12 Reserve Banks and their branches, we are able to get a clearer picture of conditions in individual communities across the nation. Each of the Reserve Banks has an active, well-staffed community development function--one of the great benefits of the Federal Reserve's structure. We get important and timely information on the state of local economic and financial conditions, including those affecting low- and moderate-income, as well as other underserved, communities.

Our community development staff provide us with a more nuanced understanding of current economic and financial conditions. They also help people in low-income and underserved communities overcome the challenges they face. We support numerous initiatives in rural communities across the country, several of which I would like to highlight.

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© FEDERALRESERVE

DEC
06
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November 2018 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business

NMI® at 60.7%Business Activity Index at 65.2%New Orders Index at 62.5%Employment Index at 58.4%

(Tempe, Arizona) – Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in November for the 106th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 60.7 percent, which is 0.4 percentage point higher than the October reading of 60.3 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 65.2 percent, 2.7 percentage points higher than the October reading of 62.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 112th consecutive month, at a faster rate in November. The New Orders Index registered 62.5 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the reading of 61.5 percent in October. The Employment Index decreased 1.3 percentage points in November to 58.4 percent from the October reading of 59.7 percent. The Prices Index rose 2.6 percentage points from the October reading of 61.7 percent to 64.3 percent, indicating that prices increased in November for the 33rd consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 17 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector continued to reflect strong growth in November. However, concerns persist about employment resources and the impact of tariffs. Respondents remain positive about current business conditions and the direction of the economy.”

The 17 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in November — listed in order — are: Educational Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; Other Services; Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Utilities. The only industry reporting a decrease in November is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING“Relatively stable business conditions. Input costs are corn- and soy-based, so the ongoing trade dispute with China presents challenges and opportunities. The chief dilemmas are: When will the dispute be resolved, and what will the market reaction be?” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)“Commercial construction is strong. Employment is struggling due to lack of qualified talent.” (Construction)“Midway through Q4, and on track for another good year. Conditions are favorable and look to remain so going into 2019.” (Finance & Insurance)“Business is booming. Labor costs are rising.” (Information)“November continues our busy season, at a higher rate than we anticipated. Both internal and supplier resources have had success gaining some ground back on backlog of orders. A large volume of orders is always expected this time of year, but this year, it has been busier than our organization and suppliers anticipated.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)“Business continues to improve internationally, but there is a slowdown in domestics offshore and leveling in domestic onshore, which directly affects our business. There are concerns about domestic trucking and international flat rack availability. There is also discussion of implementation of trucking e-log requirements in Mexico sometime in 2019 or 2020. That could affect our trucking providers’ lead time for delivery-support services in the Mexican region.” (Other Services)“The imposition of and threats to impose tariffs are having a negative effect on several capital-improvement projects in progress. The contractors have submitted change order requests for those items impacted, especially those with a steel component. The increases are not expected or budgeted for.” (Public Administration“The business is preparing for the later phases of tariffs by slowing down growth and capital investment until the future becomes clearer. We are starting to pull months of inventory in before the next round of tariffs hit, so there is a lot of activity on our logistics side.” (Retail Trade)“We are still experiencing low service levels with transportation.” (Wholesale Trade)ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*November 2018 Non-ManufacturingManufacturingIndexSeries Index NovSeries Index OctPercent Point ChangeDirectionRate of ChangeTrend** (Months)Series Index NovSeries Index OctPercent Point ChangeNMI®/ PMI®60.760.3+0.4GrowingFaster10659.357.7+1.6Business Activity/ Production65.262.5+2.7GrowingFaster11260.659.9+0.7New Orders62.561.5+1.0GrowingFaster9462.157.4+4.7Employment58.459.7-1.3GrowingSlower5758.456.8+1.6Supplier Deliveries56.557.5-1.0SlowingSlower3562.563.8-1.3Inventories57.556.0+1.5GrowingFaster1052.950.7+2.2Prices64.361.7+2.6IncreasingFaster3360.771.6-10.9Backlog of Orders55.553.5+2.0GrowingFaster1156.455.8+0.6New Export Orders57.561.0-3.5GrowingSlower2252.252.20.0Imports54.551.0+3.5GrowingFaster953.654.3-0.7Inventory Sentiment60.062.0-2.0Too HighSlower258N/AN/AN/ACustomers' InventoriesN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A41.543.3-1.8Overall EconomyGrowingFaster111Non-Manufacturing SectorGrowingFaster106Non-Manufacturing ISM®Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.*Number of months moving in current direction.Commodities reported up/down in price and in short supplyCommodities Up in Price

Aluminum (8); Labor (2); Labor — Construction; Medical Supplies; Paper (4); Steel Products (14); and Tomatoes.

 Commodities Down in Price

Cheese; Fuel; Gasoline; Lumber (2); and Lumber Products.

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© ISM

DEC
06
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U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, October 2018

Goods (Census basis)

Data for goods on a Census basis are compiled from the documents collected by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and reflect the movement of goods between foreign countries and the 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and U.S. Foreign Trade Zones. They include government and non-government shipments of goods and exclude shipments between the United States and its territories and possessions; transactions with U.S. military, diplomatic, and consular installations abroad; U.S. goods returned to the United States by its Armed Forces; personal and household effects of travelers; and in-transit shipments. The General Imports value reflects the total arrival of merchandise from foreign countries that immediately enters consumption channels, warehouses, or Foreign Trade Zones.

For imports, the value reported is the CBP-appraised value of merchandise—generally, the price paid for merchandise for export to the United States. Import duties, freight, insurance, and other charges incurred in bringing merchandise to the United States are excluded. The exception is Exhibit 17a, which shows CIF import value. The CIF (cost, insurance, and freight) value represents the landed value of the merchandise at the first port of arrival in the United States. It is computed by adding import charges to the customs value and therefore excludes U.S. import duties.

Exports are valued at the f.a.s. (free alongside ship) value of merchandise at the U.S. port of export, based on the transaction price including inland freight, insurance, and other charges incurred in placing the merchandise alongside the carrier at the U.S. port of exportation.

Revision procedure (Census basis)

Monthly revisions: Monthly data include actual month's transactions as well as a small number of transactions for previous months. Each month, the U.S. Census Bureau revises the aggregate seasonally adjusted (current and real, or chained-dollar) and unadjusted export, import, and trade balance figures, as well as the end-use totals for the prior month. Country detail data and commodity detail data, based on the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) Revision 4 and the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), are not revised monthly. The timing adjustment shown in Exhibit 14 is the difference between monthly data as originally reported and as recompiled.

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© BEA

DEC
06
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Global PMI lifts further from two-year low but outlook blighted by weak order books

Global PMI rises for second month running but holds close totwo-year lowsSentiment about the year ahead and inflows of new work bothlowest for just over two yearsUpturn led by emerging market services and US resilience. Tradeacts as further drag

Global business activity grew at a marginally improved pace fora second successive month in November, albeit continuing to expandat one of the weakest rates seen over the past two years. Growth isalso likely to soften again in coming months: sentiment about theyear ahead and inflows of new work both deteriorated to the worstlevels recorded for just over two years.

The survey data showed that subdued manufacturing growth and afurther marginal drop in global goods exports acted as a drag ongrowth, but the pace of service sector expansion accelerated.

By country, the US led the expansion among the world's largesteconomies, though emerging markets closed the gap with thedeveloped world, the latter held back by slower growth inEurope.

Growth upturn likely short-lived

In a sign of the global economy showing resilience in the faceof rising concerns over trade wars and escalating geopoliticaluncertainty, the latest business surveys showed worldwide outputrising at an increased rate mid-way through the fourth quarter. Theheadline JPMorgan Global Composite PMI, compiled by IHS Markit,rose for a second successive month in November, edging up from 53.0in October to a three-month high of 53.2.

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© IHSMarkit

DEC
06
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Record number of air passengers carried at more than 1 billion in 2017

In 2017, 1.043 billion passengers travelled by air in the European Union (EU), up by 7% compared with 2016 and by 39% compared with 2009. Over this period, air passenger transport has steadily risen in the EU.Original link
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© Eurostat

DEC
06
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Prisoners in Australia

Prisoner numbers up 4 per cent from 2017 (Media Release)Original link
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© absau

DEC
06
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Retail Trade, Australia

Retail turnover rose 0.3 per cent in October (Media Release)Original link
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© absau

 
Wait a minute, while we are rendering the calendar

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