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Euro area annual inflation expected to be 1.4%

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.4% in January 2019 according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.Original link
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FEB
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Producer Price Indexes, Australia

Final demand prices rose 0.5% in the December Qtr 2018Original link
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JAN
31
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Japan manufacturing weakness casts shadow over 2019 growth outlook

Flash Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI at lowest since August2016 as production and order books deteriorate2019 GDP forecast revised lower as headwinds prevail

Japan's manufacturing economy failed to grow for the first timein two and a half years in January as a mounting global tradedownturn took an increasing toll on the country's exporters andpushed business sentiment to its lowest for six years. The stallingof business activity ended the country's longest growth spell for adecade and raises questions over the ability of the economy toweather headwinds in 2019, which look set to include rising globaltrade tensions and a planned sales tax rise.

Flat start to the year

The first piece of economic data for 2019 suggests the Japaneseeconomy started the year on a disappointing note. The NikkeiManufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI™) fell sharplyfrom 52.6 in December to 50.0 in December according to the flashestimate released on 24th January.

With 50.0 being the neutral level between growth and expansion,January's PMI reading signalled a stagnation of business conditionsduring the month. It was the lowest reading since August 2016.

The headline PMI is a composite indicator based on a variety ofsurvey sub-indices, the analysis of which paints an even gloomierpicture. The PMI output index signalled the first monthly fall infactory production since August 2016, while the new orders indexpointed to the first reduction of new work inflows since September2016.

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JAN
31
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Euro area unemployment at 7.9%

The euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.9% in December 2018, stable compared with November 2018 and down from 8.6% in December 2017. This remains the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since October 2008. The EU28 unemployment rate was 6.6% in December 2018, stable compared with November 2018 and down from 7.2% in December 2017. This remains the lowest rate recorded in the EU28 since the start of the EU monthly unemployment series in January 2000. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.Original link
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JAN
31
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GDP up by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.3% the EU28

Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.2% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.3% in the EU28 during the fourth quarter of 2018, compared with the previous quarter, according to a preliminary flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the third quarter of 2018, GDP had also grown by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU28.Original link
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JAN
31
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Labour Force, Australia, Detailed - Electronic Delivery

Data from the monthly Labour Force Survey are released in two stages. The Labour Force, Australia, Detailed - Electronic Delivery (cat. no. 6291.0.55.001) and Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly (cat. no. 6291.0.55.003) are part of the second release, and include detailed data not contained in the Labour Force, Australia (cat. no. 6202.0) product set, which is released one week earlier.

The Labour Force, Australia, Detailed - Electronic Delivery (cat. no. 6291.0.55.001) is released monthly. Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly (cat. no. 6291.0.55.003) includes data only collected in February, May, August and November (including industry and occupation).

Since these products are based on the same data as the Labour Force, Australia (cat. no. 6202.0) publication, the 6202.0 Labour Force, Australia Explanatory Notes are relevant to both releases.

NEW LABOUR FORCE SURVEY SAMPLE

As previously highlighted, the ABS is currently phasing in a new sample design. This began with the incoming rotation group in July 2018 and will continue through to February 2019. An information paper titled Information Paper: Labour Force Survey Sample Design, Jul 2018 (cat. no. 6269.0) was released on 30 July 2018 with detailed information on the new sample. As with each regular sample design, the impacts on the data are expected to be minimal and the ABS will monitor the quality of the estimates over the period the sample is phased in.

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JAN
31
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International Trade Price Indexes, Australia

Metal ores and mineral fuels drive export price riseOriginal link
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JAN
31
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Press Release: Slight Set-Back at the Beginning of the Year

Firms in Germany’s information economy kicked off 2019 in a slightly negative mood. The ZEW sentiment indicator illustrates this for the sector. Compared to the previous quarter, the indicator decreased by 4.8 points, setting the mark to a reading of 66.4 points in the fourth quarter of 2018. However, a cause for greater concern is missing as the indicator shows that the majority of companies in the information economy continue to assess the economic situation positively. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator is the result of a survey among companies in the German information economy, conducted by the ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research , Mannheim, in December 2018.Original link
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JAN
31
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Press Release: The Fed Is Doing Damage Control

In its latest statement, the US Federal Reserve has initiated its move away from a policy of constant interest rate hikes. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the central bank would take a “patient” approach toward further interest rate changes. The Fed has also made it clear that the shrinking of its balance sheet could come to an end over the course of this year. Professor Friedrich Heinemann, head of the “Corporate Taxation and Public Finance” Research Department at the ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim, comments:Original link
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JAN
31
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Statement Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation and Balance Sheet Normalization

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After extensive deliberations and thorough review of experience to date, the Committee judges that it is appropriate at this time to provide additional information regarding its plans to implement monetary policy over the longer run. Additionally, the Committee is revising its earlier guidance regarding the conditions under which it could adjust the details of its balance sheet normalization program. Accordingly, all participants agreed to the following:

The Committee intends to continue to implement monetary policy in a regime in which an ample supply of reserves ensures that control over the level of the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates is exercised primarily through the setting of the Federal Reserve's administered rates, and in which active management of the supply of reserves is not required.

The Committee continues to view changes in the target range for the federal funds rate as its primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy. The Committee is prepared to adjust any of the details for completing balance sheet normalization in light of economic and financial developments. Moreover, the Committee would be prepared to use its full range of tools, including altering the size and composition of its balance sheet, if future economic conditions were to warrant a more accommodative monetary policy than can be achieved solely by reducing the federal funds rate.

Last Update: January 30, 2019

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