DEC
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Eurozone: Q4 2018 GDP Nowcasts

Based on data up to early December, the Q4 2018 Eurozone GDPnowcast points to economic expansion of 0.3% q/q, a level slightlybelow the post- financial crisis trend rate (0.36%). However, giventhe prior distortion to growth from the auto sectoremissions-related drag on German output, IHS Markit currentlyanticipates the economy will grow by 0.4% q/q.

Survey data continue to soften heading into year end. The Eurozone Composite PMI dropped in November to its lowest levelfor over two years, dragged down by worries over global tradetrends and political worries around Brexit. Business confidence wasat its lowest in nearly four years, whilst separate figures showconsumer confidence at a 20-month low. Although our EZ EconomyTracker (which uses principal components analysis (PCA) to estimatea single 'factor' index from the 36 variables used to nowcast EZeconomic output) improved slightly in November, it remains close toOctober's 26-month low.

Whilst survey data continue to show a slowdown inunderlying growth, we are keen to see official dataupdates for the start of Q4 (especially industrial production) toassess whether the weakness related to autos production thatimpacted on Q3 data proves to be transitory.

Indeed, when observing similar-sized model 'surprises' to theone seen in the third quarter, growth in the following three-monthperiod has tended to overshoot the respective nowcast.

And with German car production figures for October showingstrong year-on-year expansion, GDP growth may well be firmer thanis currently being implied by the current nowcast.

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DEC
05
0

All-sector UK PMI indicates flatlining economy in November

Fall in 'all-sector' PMI leaves survey consistent with fourthquarter GDP growth of 0.1%Service sector close to stallingBusiness optimism at second-lowest since global financialcrisisCost pressures ease to six-month low

PMI surveys showed UK business activity growing at a sharplyreduced rate in November amid slower inflows of new orders and adeterioration in business optimism about the year ahead.Intensifying Brexit uncertainty in particular continued to hitcurrent business activity and dampen the outlook, making companiesmore risk averse in terms of spending and investment.

Economy slowing sharply

Businesses reported a further slowdown in activity midwaythrough the fourth quarter. At 51.0, the IHS Markit/CIPS'all-sector' PMI fell from 52.2 in October. With the exception ofthe brief downturn seen in July 2016, when business slumped in theimmediate aftermath of the EU referendum, the latest reading wasthe lowest since February 2013.

Historical comparisons indicate that the November PMI reading isindicative of the economy stalling, flatlining after a modestquarterly rate of GDP growth of 0.2% having been signalled inOctober. As such, the survey results suggest that the pace ofeconomic growth has slowed to just 0.1% in the fourth quarter sofar, down sharply from the 0.6% expansion recorded in the thirdquarter.

Stalling service sector

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DEC
05
0

Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product

Economy grew 0.3 per cent in September quarter (Media Release)Original link
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© absau

DEC
05
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Australians' journeys through life: Stories from the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset

Longitudinal picture of Australia between 2006 and 2016Original link
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© absau

DEC
05
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Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product

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DEC
05
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Aktuell: How to Put E-Mobility on the Roads

Electromobility, safety, autonomous driving and artificial intelligence – these are the major topics of the automotive industry according to Klaus Fröhlich, board member for development of the Bavarian automobile manufacturer BMW. With market conditions becoming ever more dynamic, it is difficult for a German carmaker to keep pace with China and the USA, let alone to define new standards. In his talk at the Centre for European Economic Research , Mannheim, on 4 December 2018, Fröhlich presented his vision for the future of cars, the industry as a whole as well as his own company in the lecture series “First-Hand Information on Economic Policy”.Original link
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© ZEW

DEC
05
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Press Release: ZEW Sponsors’ Association Grants Two New Science Prizes

The Sponsors’ Association for Science and Practice of the Centre for European Economic Research , Mannheim, has granted two new science prizes. Dr. Dominik Rehse, senior researcher at ZEW, was awarded for the best scientific performance. The prize for the best economic policy advising project went to the ZEW researchers Professor Irene Bertschek, Dr. Jörg Ohnemus, Dr. Thomas Niebel and Dr. Christian Rammer. Both prizes are endowed with 5,000 euros each. The prizes were handed over by Claudia Diem, board member of BW-Bank and member of the ZEW Sponsors’ Association.Original link
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DEC
05
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Minutes of the Board's discount rate meeting on November 8, 2018

Please enable JavaScript if it is disabled in your browser or access the information through the links provided below.

The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday released the minutes of its interest rate meeting on November 8, 2018.

The minutes are attached.

For media inquiries, call 202-452-2955.

Last Update: December 04, 2018

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DEC
05
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ISM November NMI Release Date Change

FOR RELEASE: December 4, 2018

 

 

Tempe, Ariz. (December 3, 2018) - The December Non-Manufacturing Report On Business® (NMI®), featuring November 2018 data, will be released on Thursday, December 6, 2018, rather than Wednesday, December 5, 2018, because the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

The New York Stock Exchange, NYSE American, NYSE National, NYSE Arca, and the Chicago Stock Exchange, part of the Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) global network of exchanges, will be closed on Wednesday, December 5, 2018 in observance of the National Day of Mourning for President George H. W. Bush.

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DEC
05
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ISM November NMI Date Change

FOR RELEASE: December 5, 2018

 

 

Tempe, Ariz. (December 3, 2018) - The December Non-Manufacturing Report On Business® (NMI®), featuring November 2018 data, will be released on Thursday, December 6, 2018, rather than Wednesday, December 5, 2018, because the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

The New York Stock Exchange, NYSE American, NYSE National, NYSE Arca, and the Chicago Stock Exchange, part of the Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) global network of exchanges, will be closed on Wednesday, December 5, 2018 in observance of the National Day of Mourning for President George H. W. Bush.

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