JAN
28
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ZEW-Gutachten: Steuerlicher Reformbedarf bei Service-Plattformen

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JAN
28
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Press Release: Service Platforms Like Airbnb Should Be Subject to a More Stringent Tax Regime

The German government can count on millions of euros in tax revenue from services provided on digital marketplaces like Airbnb, the leading platform for connecting individuals offering or looking for accommodation. However, it remains to be seen whether the existing income and value-added tax regulations for service providers with digital businesses models are still adequate. In order to prevent future shortcomings, reforms for a competition-oriented taxation of service platforms could be implemented without much additional effort, thereby making taxation much more efficient.Original link
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JAN
28
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Aktuell: FRAME Final Policy Conference on the Interaction Between Macroeconomics and Innovation Policy

How do macroeconomics and innovation policy interact? This question will be at the heart of the discussion between academics and policymakers at the FRAME Final Policy Conference in London on 18 and 19 February 2019. The conference will conclude the EU Horizon 2020 project FRAME and opens participation to a limited number of interested guests.Original link
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JAN
25
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Week Ahead APAC Economic Preview: Week of 28 January 2019

Worldwide PMI surveys to provide early clues on manufacturingactivity at start of 2019FOMC meetingTaiwan Q4 GDPSpecial focus on artificial intelligence

The worldwide release of PMI data next week will provide thefirst clues of manufacturing performance across the globe at thestart of 2019, with a particular focus on China and the US. Globalgrowth is widely expected to weaken this year amid rising politicaland economic risks, which could stall major central banks' plans tonormalise monetary policy.

With key US data releases delayed by the government shutdown,hindering economic analysis, the survey data will come underever-greater scrutiny, especially in a week in which the FOMC meetsto set policy. In Asia, China's industrial profits and Japan'sretail sales and consumer confidence data, alongside GDP figuresfrom Taiwan, are published in the coming week.

Our special focus looks at Asia's artificial intelligencerevolution.

Download the article for a full diary of key economicreleases.

Contact for further APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas or BernardAw

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JAN
25
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Week Ahead APAC Economic Preview: Week of 28 January 2019

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JAN
25
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ECB sees downside risks as PMI shows eurozone close to stalling

Flash Eurozone PMI falls to lowest since July 2013, signallingmere 0.1% GDP growth rate and waning price pressuresECB no longer sees growth risks as 'broadly balanced' andlikely to revise forecasts down

The release of disappointing flash Eurozone PMI data on the sameday that the European Central Bank's Governing Council acknowledgedthat downside risks now prevail has focused minds on the health ofthe euro area economy. The new debate centres on how entrenched therecent slowdown is, and in this respect the survey data suggestslim hopes of a swift rebound.

Economy close to stalling

The flash IHS Markit Composite PMI for the euro area fell to50.7 in January, its lowest since July 2013. At this level,historical comparisons indicate that GDP is growing at a quarterlyrate of just 0.1%. Most disappointing was the PMI for France, whichhas succumbed to a four-year low and indicative of GDP contractingby 0.1%. While Germany fared better, the PMI is merely in line witha modest 0.2% growth. Worryingly, Germany's manufacturing sectorslipped into decline for the first time since 2014, in turnreflecting the largest drop in exports for six years. The rest ofthe region is meanwhile collectively seeing the weakest rate ofexpansion for over five years.

Stimulus territory

The survey's output and price gauges have both now fallen intoterritory more associated with the ECB loosening than tighteningpolicy (see charts). Based on historical comparisons, the outputindex needs to drop below 51 to be consistent with the GoverningCouncil typically voting for more stimulus, while the pricepressures gauge (a mix of input prices and suppliers' deliverytimes) needs to breach the 50 line. With these indicators at 50.7and 54.2 respectively, the output index is already in stimulusterritory. The price pressures index, down from 67.3 a year ago,appears to have considerable downward momentum, albeit not yet inthe stimulus 'action' zone, just suggesting a bias towardstimulus.

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JAN
25
0

ECB sees downside risks as PMI shows eurozone close to stalling

Flash Eurozone PMI falls to lowest since July 2013, signallingmere 0.1% GDP growth rate and waning price pressuresECB no longer sees growth risks as 'broadly balanced' andlikely to revise forecasts down

The release of disappointing flash Eurozone PMI data on the sameday that the European Central Bank's Governing Council acknowledgedthat downside risks now prevail has focused minds on the health ofthe euro area economy. The new debate centres on how entrenched therecent slowdown is, and in this respect the survey data suggestslim hopes of a swift rebound.

Economy close to stalling

The flash IHS Markit Composite PMI for the euro area fell to50.7 in January, its lowest since July 2013. At this level,historical comparisons indicate that GDP is growing at a quarterlyrate of just 0.1%. Most disappointing was the PMI for France, whichhas succumbed to a four-year low and indicative of GDP contractingby 0.1%. While Germany fared better, the PMI is merely in line witha modest 0.2% growth. Worryingly, Germany's manufacturing sectorslipped into decline for the first time since 2014, in turnreflecting the largest drop in exports for six years. The rest ofthe region is meanwhile collectively seeing the weakest rate ofexpansion for over five years.

Stimulus territory

The survey's output and price gauges have both now fallen intoterritory more associated with the ECB loosening than tighteningpolicy (see charts). Based on historical comparisons, the outputindex needs to drop below 51 to be consistent with the GoverningCouncil typically voting for more stimulus, while the pricepressures gauge (a mix of input prices and suppliers' deliverytimes) needs to breach the 50 line. With these indicators at 50.7and 54.2 respectively, the output index is already in stimulusterritory. The price pressures index, down from 67.3 a year ago,appears to have considerable downward momentum, albeit not yet inthe stimulus 'action' zone, just suggesting a bias towardstimulus.

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JAN
24
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ZEW Discussion Papers DP No. 18-059: Hotel Rankings of Online Travel Agents, Channel Pricing, and Consumer Protection

We investigate whether online travel agents assign hotels worse positions in their search results if these set lower hotel prices at other OTAs or on their own websites. We formally characterize how an OTA can use such a strategy to reduce price differentiation across distribution channels. Our empirical analysis shows that the position of a hotel in the search results of OTAs is better when the prices charged by the hotel on other channels are higher. This is consistent with the hypothesis that OTAs alter their search results to discipline hotels for aggressive prices on competing channels, thereby reducing the search quality for consumers.Original link
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JAN
24
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ISM Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing NMI and Diffusion Indexes

FOR RELEASE: January 24, 2019

 

(Tempe, Arizona) — Based on input from an independent expert, Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) recently announced the completion of its annual adjustments to the seasonal factors used in the monthly ISM® Manufacturing Report On Business® and the monthly ISM® Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®. Purchasing managers and economists who track these indexes will note that changes are effective with the January 2019 ISM®Manufacturing Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be released on February 1, 2019, and the January 2019 ISM®Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®, which will be released on February 5, 2019.

 

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-movable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes one year ahead (2019).

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JAN
24
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Aktuell: ZEW at UN Climate Change Conference in Katowice

The question of how to implement the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement was a primary concern at the UN Climate Change Conference in Katowice, Poland. It was also the focus of two side events organised by a team of ZEW researchers together with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development , Paris, the Washington-based World Resources Institute, the ifo Institute in Munich, and the University of Kassel, on 4 and 8 December 2018 at COP24.Original link
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