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Global manufacturing PMI holds at two-year low as world exports fall for third month running

Global PMI remains at lowest level since November 2016,optimism slumps to weakest in series historyExport orders fall for third straight monthPrice pressures and supply constraints easeUS shows greater resilience than other major economies, Vietnamleads the rankings

Global manufacturing growth was unchanged from October's23-month low in November. Exports fell for a third month in a rowand the number of countries reporting a deterioration of businessconditions rose to the highest since 2016.

In a sign that growth may slow further, optimism about the yearahead meanwhile fell to the lowest for at least six years. Pricepressures meanwhile cooled to the least marked for over a year,reflecting softer demand growth for commodities and the falling oilprice.

The US stood out from other major economies by displayinggreater resilience in terms of its recent manufacturingperformance, though Vietnam reported the fastest rate ofexpansion.

Manufacturing PMI holds at two-year low

The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI, compiled by IHS Markit,held steady at 52.0 in November, the October reading was the lowestsince November 2016. Output growth remained close to October's28-month low, indicative of worldwide goods production growing at amodest annual rate just above 2%.

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DEC
03
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Global manufacturing PMI holds at two-year low as world exports fall for third month running

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DEC
03
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Week Ahead APAC Economic Preview: Week of 3 December 2018

Worldwide release of PMI surveys offer insights into Q4 economic performance and price trendsAustralia and India set monetary policyAustralia GDPUS non-farm payrolls and earningsSpecial focus on Vietnam

Worldwide release of November PMI surveys will offer important clues into fourth quarter economic performance and price trends amid lower oil prices. A number of countries in Asia will also publish updated inflation figures. Australia and India will meanwhile decide on monetary policy. China also releases trade and inflation numbers over the next weekend.

Other data highlights for Asia include updated estimates to South Korea's GDP data, as well as trade figures for Malaysia and Taiwan.

Elsewhere, US nonfarm payrolls and wage data will be keenly watched for insights into the pace of future Fed rate hikes.

Our special focus this week looks at the rapid expansion and projected future development of the Vietnamese economy.

Download the article for a full diary of key economic releases.

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DEC
03
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Week Ahead APAC Economic Preview: Week of 3 December 2018

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DEC
03
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UK Manufacturing PMI subdued by export decline and rising Brexit worries

PMI rises from 51.1 to 53.1 but remains indicative ofmanufacturing downturn in Q4Export orders fall at increased pace, future optimism slideslowerBrexit worries intensify

A rise in the IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI in Novemberis welcome news, but a look at how the survey data compare withofficial factory output numbers highlights how the PMI continues tosignal an increased risk of a downturn.

The headline manufacturing PMI rose two points from October's27-month low of 51.1 to reach 53.1 in November, beating marketexpectations. However, the latest reading was still one of theworst seen since the factory sector received a boost fromsterling's weakness after the 2016 Brexit vote. So far, the fourthquarter is looking the weakest since the second quarter of2016.

Dig deeper and the picture darkens further. A long-runcomparison of the survey's output index with the officialproduction numbers from the Office for National Statisticshighlights how the current output index reading is historicallyconsistent with a stagnation of production. The November outputindex was the second weakest since July 2016, with only Octoberhaving seen a lower reading. Taken alongside the 0.3% quarterlyrate of decline signalled by the October index, the PMI's outputindex is suggesting the manufacturing sector could act as a drag onthe economy in the fourth quarter unless December proves a strongermonth for the UK's factories.

Export malaise

Exports remained a particular source of weakness. Although theoverall new orders index rebounded from the contraction signalledin October, indicating the sharpest rise in new business sinceJuly, new export orders fell at an increased rate. Exports have nowfallen in three of the past four months, with the fourth quarter sofar exhibiting the worst export trend since the summer of 2015.

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DEC
03
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Estimates of Industry Multifactor Productivity

Productivity growth slowed to 0.5 per cent in 2017-18 (Media Release)Original link
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DEC
03
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Building Approvals, Australia

Dwelling approvals fall in October (Media Release)Original link
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DEC
03
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Mineral and Petroleum Exploration, Australia

SUMMARY COMMENTARY

MINERAL EXPLORATION (OTHER THAN FOR PETROLEUM)

TOTAL EXPENDITURE

The trend estimate for total mineral exploration expenditure increased 3.6% ($19.4m) to $561.4m in the September quarter 2018. The largest contributor to the increase in the trend estimate this quarter was Western Australia (up 4.7%, $15.5m). The current quarter estimate is 25.7% higher than the September quarter 2017 estimate.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for mineral exploration expenditure fell 1.7% (-$9.3m) to $547.4m in the September quarter 2018. The largest contributor to the fall this quarter was New South Wales (down 11.9%, -$7.8m).

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DEC
03
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Experimental Estimates of Industry Level KLEMS Multifactor Productivity

ANALYSIS OF RESULTS

In 2016-17, positive KLEMS MFP growth was recorded by 10 of the 16 market sector industries.

KLEMS PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH By Market Sector Industries, 2016-17, percentage change

KLEMS provides a detailed statistical decomposition on the contributions to output growth, represented by five input categories - capital (K), labour (L), energy (E), materials (M), and services (S). This allows for analysis on the changes to the input mix, such as the role of labour hours and composition of relative capital services or intermediate inputs, observed in industry output growth.

Industry KLEMS MFP growth:

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DEC
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Estimates of Industry Multifactor Productivity

ANALYSIS OF RESULTS

MARKET SECTOR PRODUCTIVITY - HOURS WORKED BASIS

Multifactor productivity (MFP) for the Australian market sector rose 0.5% in 2017-18, with chain volume measure gross value added (GVA) of 2.7% outpacing a 2.2% increase in combined inputs. The combined input growth represents capital services growth of 2.0% and hours worked growth of 2.4%. Over the current incomplete productivity growth cycle (2011-12 to current), hours worked based MFP of the market sector grew 0.8% per year on average, an improvement from the flat MFP growth recorded for the cycle of 2003-04 to 2011-12.

MARKET SECTOR MULTIFACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, HOURS WORKED BASIS

MARKET SECTOR PRODUCTIVITY – QUALITY ADJUSTED HOURS WORKED BASIS

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