MAR
01
0

Week Ahead APAC Economic Preview: Week of 4 March 2019

Services PMI surveys to provide more colour on global growth trendsAustralia, Malaysia and ECB monetary policyGDP figures in Australia, Japan, South Korea and EuropeSpecial report on copper demand and global growth

The worldwide release of February service sector PMI surveys will provide more colour to global economic developments and inflation trends during the first quarter. Monetary policy meetings in Australia and Malaysia will meanwhile also be in focus amid increasing expectations for Asian central banks to reverse tighter monetary policy. The European Central Bank will likewise decide on monetary policy.

Key official data releases include Australia's GDP figures as well as updates to growth estimates for Japan, South Korea and the Euro area. In Asia, other notable data releases included trade data in China, Taiwan and Malaysia. Elsewhere, financial markets will keep an eye on US nonfarm payroll and unemployment data.

Our special report this week looks at what the near-ten year low in the output of heavy copper users means for global growth.

Download the article for a full diary of key economic releases.

Contact for further APAC commentary: Bernard Aw

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MAR
01
0

Personal Income and Outlays, December 2018; Personal Income, January 2019

Due to the recent partial government shutdown, this report combines estimates for December 2018 and January 2019. December estimates include both income and outlays measures, while January estimates are limited to personal income. Estimates of outlays for January are unavailable due to a delay in the release of the Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Retail Sales.

Personal Income and Outlays, December 2018

Personal income increased $179.0 billion (1.0 percent) in December according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income increased $173.1 billion (1.1 percent), and personal consumption expenditures decreased $76.6 billion (-0.5 percent).

Real DPI increased 1.0 percent in December and real PCE decreased 0.6 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

The increase in personal income in December primarily reflected increases in personal dividend income, compensation of employees, and farm proprietors’ income (table 3). Personal dividend income increased $83.4 billion, primarily reflecting a one-time special dividend payment by VMware Incorporated. Farm proprietors’ income increased $29.2 billion, which included subsidy payments associated with the Department of Agriculture’s Market Facilitation Program.

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MAR
01
0

UK manufacturing buoyed by pre-Brexit stockpiling but outlook darkens

PMI falls to 52.0 despite record pre-Brexit boost toinventoriesOrder inflows stall and employment falls at fastest rate forsix yearsBusiness optimism hits survey-record low

Growth of manufacturing activity edged lower in February despitebeing buoyed by factories and their customers building inventoriesahead of the UK's exit from the EU. The underlying weakness ofdemand and increased gloom about the year ahead, linked principallyto Brexit, meanwhile prompted factories to cut headcounts at thefastest rate for six years.

Brexit stockpiling provides temporary lift tooutput

The headline IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI dropped from52.6 in January to 52.0 in February. With the exception of lastOctober, the latest reading was the lowest since July 2016.

While the survey's gauge of factory output registered the firstacceleration of growth since November, the improvement could betraced at least in part to Brexit-related activity ahead of theUK's scheduled departure from the EU on 29th March. In particular,just over one in three companies giving a reason for increasedproduction indicated that output was raised in preparation forpotential supply disruptions in the event of a 'no-deal'Brexit.

Gloomier outlook

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MAR
01
0

UK manufacturing buoyed by pre-Brexit stockpiling but outlook darkens

PMI falls to 52.0 despite record pre-Brexit boost toinventoriesOrder inflows stall and employment falls at fastest rate forsix yearsBusiness optimism hits survey-record low

Growth of manufacturing activity edged lower in February despitebeing buoyed by factories and their customers building inventoriesahead of the UK's exit from the EU. The underlying weakness ofdemand and increased gloom about the year ahead, linked principallyto Brexit, meanwhile prompted factories to cut headcounts at thefastest rate for six years.

Brexit stockpiling provides temporary lift tooutput

The headline IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI dropped from52.6 in January to 52.0 in February. With the exception of lastOctober, the latest reading was the lowest since July 2016.

While the survey's gauge of factory output registered the firstacceleration of growth since November, the improvement could betraced at least in part to Brexit-related activity ahead of theUK's scheduled departure from the EU on 29th March. In particular,just over one in three companies giving a reason for increasedproduction indicated that output was raised in preparation forpotential supply disruptions in the event of a 'no-deal'Brexit.

Gloomier outlook

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MAR
01
0

Euro area annual inflation up to 1.5%

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.5% in February 2019, up from 1.4% in January, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.Original link

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© Eurostat

MAR
01
0

Euro area unemployment at 7.8%

The euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.8% in January 2019, stable compared with December 2018 and down from 8.6% in January 2018. This remains the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since October 2008.Original link

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© Eurostat

MAR
01
0

Discover Your Commonwealth Electoral Division, Australia

Your Commonwealth Electoral Division profiles out todayOriginal link

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© absau

MAR
01
0

Powell, Recent Economic Developments and Longer-Term Challenges

It is a pleasure to speak here this evening at the 87th Awards Dinner. Tonight I will start with the near-term outlook for the U.S. economy. Then I will turn to a topic that is inspired by the Citizens Budget Commission's mission statement, which focuses on the "well-being of future New Yorkers." I imagine that future New Yorkers attending this dinner in 50 years may not look back on the near-term outlook in February 2018 as very interesting or important. So, tonight, after a brief review of the here and now, I will focus on an issue that is likely to be of more lasting importance: the need for policies that will support and encourage participation in the labor force, promote longer-term growth in our rapidly evolving economy, and spread the benefits of prosperity as widely as possible.

The State of the Economy and Near-Term ProspectsBeginning with the here and now, Congress has charged the Federal Reserve with achieving maximum employment and stable prices, two objectives that together are called the dual mandate. I am pleased to say that, judged against these goals, the economy is in a good place. The current economic expansion has been under way for almost 10 years. This long period of growth has pushed the unemployment rate down near historic lows (figure 1). The employment gains have been broad based across all racial and ethnic groups and all levels of educational attainment as well as among the disabled (figure 2).1 And while the unemployment rate for African Americans and Hispanics remains above the rates for whites and Asians, the disparities have narrowed appreciably as the economic expansion has continued.

Nearly all job market indicators are better than a few years ago, and many are at their most favorable levels in decades. After lagging earlier in the expansion, wages and overall compensation--pay plus benefits­­--are now growing faster than a few years ago (figure 3). It is especially encouraging that the labor force participation rate of people in their prime working years, ages 25 to 54, has been rising for the past three years. More plentiful jobs and rising wages are drawing more people into the workforce and encouraging others who might have left to stay.

In addition, business-sector productivity growth, which had been disappointing during the expansion, moved up in the first three quarters of 2018. Rising productivity allows wages to increase without adding to inflation pressures. Sustained productivity growth is a necessary ingredient for longer-run improvements in living standards.

The price stability side of our mandate is also in a good place. After remaining below our target for several years, inflation by our preferred measure averaged roughly 2 percent last year (figure 4). Inflation has softened a bit since then, largely reflecting the recent drop in oil prices. Futures markets and other indicators suggest that oil prices are unlikely to fall further, and if this proves correct, oil's drag on overall inflation will subside. Consistent with that view, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and often provides a better signal of where inflation is heading, is currently running just a touch below our 2 percent objective. Signs of upward pressure on inflation appear muted despite the strong labor market.

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FEB
28
0

Initial Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2018

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 (table 1), according to the "initial" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

Due to the recent partial government shutdown, this initial report for the fourth quarter and annual GDP for 2018 replaces the release of the "advance" estimate originally scheduled for January 30th and the "second" estimate originally scheduled for February 28th. See the Technical Note for details.

The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter initial estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Initial Estimate” on page 3). Updated estimates for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on March 28, 2019.

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, and federal government spending. Those were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter reflected decelerations in private inventory investment, PCE, and federal government spending and a downturn in state and local government spending. These movements were partly offset by an upturn in exports and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. Imports increased less in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter.

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© BEA

FEB
28
0

Criminal Courts, Australia

Decrease in defendants finalised by the courts (Media Release)Original link

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© absau

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