JAN
24
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Flash Japan PMI™ highlights further woes for global trade cycle

Japan Manufacturing PMI at lowest since Aug '16Exports fall at sharpest pace for two-and-a-half yearsTrade cycle to face increasing headwinds in 2019

According to the latest 'flash' Nikkei Japan ManufacturingPMI™, business growth halted in January, ending the longeststreak of expansion in the sector since the global financialcrisis. Survey data indicated that goods producers in Asia'ssecond-largest economy cut output for the first time intwo-and-a-half years, while new orders also fell.

Weaker demand conditions were particularly apparent on theinternational front, where exports decreased at the sharpest ratesince July 2016. The flash survey indicates that headwinds arisingfrom slowing global growth are set to persist for Asianmanufacturers as we head into 2019.

Growth-streak ends

The headline Japan Nikkei Flash Manufacturing PMI, which isbased on 85-90% of usual monthly responses, declined to 50.0 inJanuary from 52.6 in December, signalling no change in businessconditions. The stagnation ends the longest expansionary streak inJapan's goods-producing sector for over a decade. Furthermore, it'sthe lowest reading since August 2016. The fall reflected declinesin key health barometers, including output and new orders fallingin conjunction for the first time in two-and-a-half years.

Global trade cycle downturn intensifies

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JAN
24
0

ZEW-Gutachten: Die Bedeutung der industrienahen Dienstleistungen in Baden-Württemberg unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Digitalisierung

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JAN
24
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Labour Force, Australia

DECEMBER 2018 KEY FIGURES

Nov 2018

Dec 2018

Nov 18 to Dec 18

Dec 17 to Dec 18

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JAN
24
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Press Release: Hotels Get Worse Rankings When Listed Cheaper on Other Websites

A hotel’s ranking on an online travel agent is often decisive for which hotels are booked online – and which are not. However, not every position and recommendation on platforms like Booking.com and Expedia is necessarily in the interest of the users. For example, hotels get worse positions in the recommended search results, if they offer lower prices on other platforms or on the hotels’ own website. This is the result of a study conducted by the ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim, in cooperation with researchers from Télécom ParisTech and the Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics .Original link
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JAN
24
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Press Release: ECB Can Prove Its Independence from Politics in 2019

As expected, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank has not made any changes to its interest rate policy in its first policy meeting this year. Professor Friedrich Heinemann, head of the “Corporate Taxation and Public Finance” Research Department at the ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, offers his view on the ECB's decision.Original link
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JAN
24
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Press Release: Report on Effective Tax Rates Has Severe Shortcomings in Terms of Methodology and Content

The ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim, in cooperation with the University of Mannheim, has put the recently published report commissioned by the Greens in the European Parliament under scrutiny and identified serious methodological shortcomings in the investigations. The researchers from ZEW and the University of Mannheim have found that the conclusions drawn in the report concerning the demand for greater tax transparency are ungrounded.Original link
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JAN
23
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Number of nights spent in the EU up by 2% in 2018

In 2018, the number of nights spent in tourist accommodation establishments in the European Union (EU) is expected to have reached more than 3.1 billion, up by 2.2% compared with 2017. Since 2009, there has been a steady increase in the number of nights spent in tourist accommodation establishments in the EU, notably driven by the rise in the nights spent by non-residents of the country visited.Original link
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JAN
23
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Investigating IHS Markit PMI™ and ISM divergences

Analysis suggests ISM data overstated manufacturing growth inmuch of 2017 and 2018, while December plunge appears to be a falsesignalISM overestimation of growth potentially linked to panel biastowards large companiesEquity market rally and stronger global growth likely providedboost to ISM data in 2017 and 2018

Official data indicated that factory production rose solidly inDecember, rounding off a robust fourth quarter. Output jumped 1.1%during the month according to the Fed's data, rounding off a fourthquarter during which production rose 0.6% compared with the thirdquarter. The fourth quarter expansion was nevertheless below the0.9% increase registered in the third quarter, hinting at amoderation in the underlying pace of factory growth.

The official data therefore confirmed the picture of robust butmoderating growth as shown by earlier IHS Markit ManufacturingPMI™ data, flash results for which will provide insight intoJanuary's performance when published this week.

The release of the official data for December also help toclarify recent confusion over differing survey signals: therelatively robust pace of expansion signalled by the IHS Markitsurvey contrasted with a far more abrupt slowdown indicated by theISM survey.

With the plunge in the ISM index having sent a misleading signalof the health of the goods-producing sector, we look at therelationship between the two surveys and the official data, andfind that the divergences likely reflect a difference in surveypanel structure, and specifically a tendency for the ISM data to bemore influenced by global economic growth and foreign earnings thanthe IHS Markit PMI.

To read the full report, please click on the linkbelow.

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JAN
23
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Businesses reveal growing uncertainty worldwide

Uncertainty harms future output expectations…due to heightened political and economic friction…and declining exports worldwide

Analysis of survey anecdotal evidence suggests that globalbusiness uncertainty spiked higher at the end of 2018 to reach a22-year survey high. Companies reported heightened political andeconomic risk and worries about declining exports, according to thePMI survey responses.

IHS Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index®(PMI®) surveys are based on monthly questionnairesof carefully selected companies across over 40 countries. Globally,the surveys compile responses from around 28,000 companiesmonthly.

The surveys ask contributing companies to report on changes inbusiness metrics such as activity, new orders, exports, inputprices, inventories, employment and future expectations. Alongsidethese responses, panellists are invited to provide additionalqualitative information on the reasons as to why these variableshave changed from the previous month.

Our panel comments tool collects data tracking the frequency ofwords or phrases mentioned in the qualitative reasons. Analysingthese data over time gives helpful insight into the key trendsaffecting businesses both nationally and globally, and therebyreveals the driving forces behind changes in the hard data.

Growing uncertainty from trade, political and economictensions

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JAN
23
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Businesses reveal growing uncertainty worldwide

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