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COZfx: Canadian dollar hits fresh 4-week highs

COZforex: The Canadian dollar rose to fresh 4 week highs against its broadly weaker US counterpart on Tuesday, boosted by higher prices for oil and robust domestic data.

USD/CAD was down 0.3% to 1.3462 by 09.30 ET, its lowest trough since April 24.

The price of oil, a major Canadian export pushed higher amid hopes that major producers will extend supply cuts for a prolonged period later this week, amid efforts to reduce a global supply glut.

The loonie received an additional boost after data showing that the value of Canadian wholesale trade grew by 0.9% in March, hitting a record high.

The increase was mainly due to increased demand for building materials and supplies, Statistics Canada said.
The greenback was struggling near six-month lows against a currency basket as expectations for fiscal stimulus under the Trump administration faded amid political turmoil in Washington.

Recent weeks have seen a steady stream of revelations surrounding the FBI’s investigation into alleged Russian interference in November’s presidential election and reports that President Donald Trump attempted to interfere with the judicial process.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was last at 96.83, not far from Monday’s six-month trough of 96.83.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Canada’s building permits rebounded less-than-estimated in August

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.81% against the CAD and closed at 1.3048.

On the data front, Canada’s building permits rebounded 0.4% on a monthly basis in August, undershooting market consensus for an advance of 0.5%. Building permits had recorded a revised drop of 1.5% in the previous month.

In the Asian session (at GMT0300), the pair is trading at 1.3050, with the USD trading slightly higher against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/CAD is expected to find support at 1.2962 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2873; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3104, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3157.

Trading trend in the Loonie today is expected to be determined by Canada’s new housing price index for August, slated to release later in the day.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Australia’s retail sales advanced in August, while construction sector activity cooled in September

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD declined 0.38% against the USD and closed at 0.7077.

In commodities, LME Copper prices rose 0.6% or $35.0/MT to $6310.0/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminium prices rose 3.6% or $77.0/MT to $2243.5/MT.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.7067, with the AUD trading 0.14% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Overnight data revealed that, Australia’s seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.3% on a monthly basis in August, higher than market consensus for an advance of 0.2%. Retail sales had recorded a flat reading in the previous month. On the other hand, the nation’s AIG performance of construction index declined to a level of 49.3 in September, following a reading of 51.8 in the previous month.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7054 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7041; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7089, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7111.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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  1. one week ago
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COZfx: Euro-zone’s inflation climbed in line with estimates in September

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR declined 0.21% against the USD and closed at 1.1610 on Friday, after the Italian government agreed to set a higher than expected budget deficit target.

Data indicated that Euro-zone’s final consumer price index advanced 2.1% on a yearly basis in September, in line with market expectations. In the prior month, the CPI had recorded a rise of 2.0% while preliminary figures had also indicated a similar rise. Meanwhile in Germany, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to a rate of 5.1%, notching its lowest level since the German reunification in 1990 and following a reading of 5.2% in the previous month. Market participants had anticipated the unemployment rate to record a steady reading.

In the US, personal spending rose 0.3% on a monthly basis in August, at par with market consensus. In the preceding month, personal spending had registered a gain of 0.4%. Further, the nation’s personal income climbed 0.3% on a monthly basis in August, less than market anticipations for a rise of 0.4%. In the preceding month, personal income had recorded a similar rise. Moreover, the final Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to a level of 100.1 in September, compared to market expectations of a rise to a level of 100.6. In the previous month, the index had registered a level of 96.2, while the preliminary figures had indicated an advance to 100.8.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.1560 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1525; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1641, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1687.

Going forward, investors would keep an eye on the Euro-zone’s unemployment rate and Germany’s retail sales data, both for August, along with the Markit manufacturing PMI for September, set to release across the euro-bloc in a few hours.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Japanese Yen trading a tad lower in the Asian session

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.08% against the JPY and closed at 112.57 on Friday.
In the Asian session (at GMT0300), the pair is trading at 112.59, with the USD trading slightly higher against the JPY from Friday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 112.43 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 112.27; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.81, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.03.

Looking forward, traders would closely monitor the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) September monetary policy meeting minutes, set to release overnight.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Trade dispute posed “material risk” to the economy: RBA meeting minutes

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD rose 0.07% against the USD and closed at 0.7154.

In commodities, LME Copper prices declined 1.5% or $86.5/MT to $5860.0/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminum prices declined 1.5% or $30.5/MT to $1985.0/MT.

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) September monetary policy meeting showed that the policymakers sounded optimistic on strong labour market and resilient domestic consumption. However, the officials expressed concerns over the impact of escalating US-China trade tensions and cautioned that it could pose a “material risk” to the economy. Further, the members maintained their cautiously optimistic forecasts and stated that the next interest rate move was likely to be up.

On the data front, Australia’s house price index eased 0.6% on an annual basis in 2Q 2018, less than market expectations for a decline of 0.7% and compared to an advance of 2.0% in the previous quarter.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7159 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7125; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7211, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7229.

Trading trend in the Aussie is expected to be determined by Australia’s Westpac leading index for August, set to release overnight.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Britain’s economy expanded at a faster than expected pace in July

COZforex: For the past trading session, the GBP rose 0.80% against the USD and closed at 1.3028, after the European Union’s Chief Brexit Negotiator, Michel Barnier raised hopes for a smooth Brexit with an ‘realistic’ departure agreement in the next 6 to 8 weeks.

On the macro data front, the nation’s gross domestic product advanced 0.3% on monthly basis in July, surpassing market expectations for a rise of 0.2%. In the previous month, the GDP had recorded a reading of 0.1%. Additionally, the nation’s total trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to £0.11 billion in July, following a revised deficit of £0.94 billion in the previous month. Market participants had anticipated to report a deficit of £2.10 billion.

Further, industrial production climbed 0.9% on a yearly basis in July, compared to a rise of 1.1% in the previous month. Market participants had expected the industrial production to climb 1.1%. Moreover, manufacturing production advanced 1.1% on an annual basis in July, less than market expectations for a gain of 1.4%. In the previous month, manufacturing production had registered a rise of 1.5%. Meanwhile UK’s construction output climbed 3.5% on an annual basis in July, compared to a rise of 2.2% in the previous month. Market participants had envisaged construction output to increase 2.6%.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.2937 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2839; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3092, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3149.

Going ahead, traders would await UK’s ILO unemployment rate and average weekly earnings, both for July, due to be released in a few hours.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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  1. more than a month ago
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  3. # 6
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COZfx: Oil trading extends its losses in the Asian session

COZforex: For the past trading session, crude Oil declined 0.21% against the USD and closed at USD69.93 per barrel on Friday, after Baker Hughes reported that the number of active oil rigs rose by 2 to 862.0 in the week ended 31 August 2018.

In the Asian session (at GMT0300), the pair is trading at 69.59, with oil trading 0.49% lower against the USD from Friday’s close, amid increasing supplies from the OPEC and the US.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: The crude oil is expected to find support at 69.29 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 69.00; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 70.12, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 70.66.

Crude oil is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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  1. more than a month ago
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COZfx: Loonie trading a tad higher in the Asian session

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.76% against the CAD and closed at 1.3093.

In the Asian session (at GMT0300), the pair is trading at 1.3090, with the USD trading slightly lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZ senior foreign exchange risk investment trader Desmond Doyle said: USD/CAD is expected to find support at 1.3044 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2997; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3120, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3149.

Going ahead, investors will keep an eye on Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP), scheduled to release next week.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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  1. more than a month ago
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COZfx: Swiss Franc trading higher in the morning session

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.13% against the CHF and closed at 0.9958 on Friday.

In the Asian session (GMT0300), the pair is trading at 0.9944, with the USD trading 0.14% lower against the CHF from Friday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZ senior foreign exchange risk investment trader Desmond Doyle said: USD/CHF is expected to find support at 0.9927 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9911; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9966, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9989.

Trading trend in the Swiss Franc today is expected to be determined by Switzerland’s total sight deposits, due to be released in a while.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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  1. more than a month ago
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COZfx: Euro trading lower in the Asian session

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR declined 0.99% against the USD and closed at 1.1408 on Friday.

The US dollar gained ground against the major currencies, after the US President, Donald Trump imposed double tariffs on Turkey’s steel and aluminium imports.

In the US, data indicated that the US consumer price index (CPI) advanced 2.9% on an annual basis in July, at par with market expectations. The CPI had registered a similar rise in the previous month.

In the Asian session (GMT0300), the pair is trading at 1.1379, with the EUR trading 0.25% lower against the USD from Friday’s close.

In technical analysis, coz forex senior derivatives trader Daniel • Moloney said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.1319 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1260; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1487, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1596.

With no macroeconomic releases in the Euro-zone and the US today, investors would look forward to global macroeconomic events for further direction.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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  1. more than a month ago
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