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COZfx: Canadian dollar hits fresh 4-week highs

COZforex: The Canadian dollar rose to fresh 4 week highs against its broadly weaker US counterpart on Tuesday, boosted by higher prices for oil and robust domestic data.

USD/CAD was down 0.3% to 1.3462 by 09.30 ET, its lowest trough since April 24.

The price of oil, a major Canadian export pushed higher amid hopes that major producers will extend supply cuts for a prolonged period later this week, amid efforts to reduce a global supply glut.

The loonie received an additional boost after data showing that the value of Canadian wholesale trade grew by 0.9% in March, hitting a record high.

The increase was mainly due to increased demand for building materials and supplies, Statistics Canada said.
The greenback was struggling near six-month lows against a currency basket as expectations for fiscal stimulus under the Trump administration faded amid political turmoil in Washington.

Recent weeks have seen a steady stream of revelations surrounding the FBI’s investigation into alleged Russian interference in November’s presidential election and reports that President Donald Trump attempted to interfere with the judicial process.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was last at 96.83, not far from Monday’s six-month trough of 96.83.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Switzerland’s producer and import price index rose less-than-estimated in December

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD rose 0.17% against the CHF and closed at 0.9954 on Friday.

On data front, Switzerland’s producer and import price index climbed 0.6% on an annual basis in December, undershooting market expectations for an advance of 1.0%. In the prior month, the index had recorded a rise of 1.4%.

In the Asian session (at GMT0400), the pair is trading at 0.9950, with the USD trading slightly lower against the CHF from Friday’s close.

In technical analysis, coz forex senior derivatives trader Daniel • Moloney said: USD/CHF is expected to find support at 0.9935 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9920; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9962, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9974.

Moving ahead, traders would keep an eye on Switzerland’s M3 money supply for December along with total sight deposits, slated to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Crude oil trading lower, ahead of API’s weekly crude oil stockpiles data

COZforex: For the past trading session, Crude Oil rose 0.93% against the USD and closed at USD48.76 per barrel, amid optimism over US-China trade talks and on support from OPEC production cuts. Adding to the positive sentiment, a report revealed that Saudi Arabia is planning to reduce its crude exports to around 7.1 million barrels per day by the end of January.

In the Asian session (at GMT0400), the pair is trading at 48.61, with oil trading 0.31% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: The crude oil is expected to find support at 48.02 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 47.42; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 49.50, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 50.38.

Crude oil is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Australia’s CBA manufacturing PMI advanced in December

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD declined 0.04% against the USD and closed at 0.7046.

In commodities, LME Copper prices declined 0.9% or $53.0/MT to $5965.0/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminium prices declined 0.6% or $11.5/MT to $1869.5/MT.

In the Asian session (at GMT0400), the pair is trading at 0.7004, with the AUD trading 0.6% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Overnight data showed that Australia’s CBA manufacturing PMI rose to a level of 54.0 in December, following a reading of 53.7 in the preceding month. Elsewhere in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI index declined for the first time in 19 months to a level of 49.7 in December, amid weak exports orders. The index had recorded a level of 50.2 in the prior month.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7001 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6998; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7039, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7074.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Euro-zone’s consumer confidence index dropped in December

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR declined 0.77% against the USD and closed at 1.1365 on Friday.

On the macro front, the Euro-zone’s preliminary consumer confidence index declined to a level of -6.2 in December, compared to a reading of -3.9 in the previous month. Market participants had expected for the index to fall to a level of -4.3.

Separately, in Germany, the Gfk consumer confidence index remained unchanged at a level of 10.4 in January, defying market expectations for a drop to a level of 10.3.

The US dollar gained ground against a basket of currencies, amid looming potential US government shutdown.

In the US, data showed that the US final annualised gross domestic product climbed 3.4% on a quarterly basis in 3Q 2018, falling short of market anticipations for a rise of 3.5%. In the prior quarter, the annualised GDP had advanced 4.2%, while preliminary figures had recorded an advance of 3.5%. Furthermore, the nation’s personal income jumped 0.2% on a monthly basis in November, less than market expectations for an advance of 0.3%. In the previous month, personal income had recorded an advance of 0.5%. Additionally, the US personal spending rose 0.4% on a monthly in November, compared to a revised rise of 0.8% in the prior month. Market participants had envisaged for personal spending to climb 0.3%.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.1339 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1288; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1457, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1524.

In absence of crucial macroeconomic releases in the Euro-zone today, traders would keep a close watch on the US Chicago Fed national activity index for November, slated to release later in the day.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Japan’s total trade deficit widened more-than-estimated in November

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.34% against the JPY and closed at 112.44.

In the Asian session (at GMT0400), the pair is trading at 112.31, with the USD trading 0.12% lower against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

Overnight data showed that Japan’s total trade deficit widened more-than-expected to ¥737.3 billion in November, following a deficit of ¥449.3 billion in the previous month. Markets had envisaged the trade deficit to expand to ¥630.0 billion.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 112.11 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.92; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.58, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 112.86.

Amid lack of economic releases in Japan today, traders would focus on global macroeconomic events for further direction.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: British pound reverses its gains in the morning session

COZforex: For the past the session, the GBP rose 1.19% against the USD and closed at 1.2639, after British Prime Minister, Theresa May survived the Brexit related no-confidence vote over her leadership.

In the Asian session (at GMT0400), the pair is trading at 1.2615, with the GBP trading 0.19% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Data showed that in the UK, the RICS house price balance unexpectedly fell to a level of -11.0% in November. In the prior month, the house price balance had registered a revised reading of -10.0%.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.2505 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2394; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2699, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2782.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Swiss Franc trading slightly higher this morning

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.46% against the CHF and closed at 0.9927.

In the Asian session (at GMT0400), the pair is trading at 0.9925, with the USD trading marginally lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/CHF is expected to find support at 0.9883 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9842; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9978, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0032.

Moving ahead, traders would await the Swiss National Bank’s interest rate decision, along with Switzerland’s unemployment rate and producer & import prices, all slated to release next week.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Crude oil trading marginally lower, ahead of EIA’s crude oil inventories data

COZforex: For the past trading session, Crude Oil rose 0.81% against the USD and closed at USD52.01 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil inventories rose 3.5 million barrels to 442.7 million barrels in the week ended 23 November.

In the Asian session (at GMT0400), the pair is trading at 51.99, with oil trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: The crude oil is expected to find support at 50.73 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 49.48; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 52.81, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 53.64.

Going ahead, investors will keep a close watch on the weekly crude inventories data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), due later in the day.

Crude oil is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Loonie extends its gains in the Asian session

COZforex: For the past session (24 hours to 23:00 GMT), the USD declined 0.55% against the CAD and closed at 1.3235.

In the Asian session, (at GMT0400), the pair is trading at 1.3222, with the USD trading 0.10% lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/CAD is expected to find support at 1.3191 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3161; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3281, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3341.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Australia’s unemployment rate remained unchanged in October

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD rose 0.18% against the USD and closed at 0.7235.

In commodities, LME Copper prices declined 0.4% or $24.0/MT to $6106.0/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminium prices rose 0.3% or $6.0/MT to $1931.0/MT.

In the Asian session (at GMT0400), the pair is trading at 0.7273, with the AUD trading 0.53% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Overnight data indicated that Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0% in October. Meanwhile, consumer inflation expectations recorded a drop to 3.6% in November. In the prior month, the consumer inflation expectations had recorded a level of 4.0%.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7213 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7154; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7307, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7342.

Amid lack of economic releases in Australia today, traders would focus on global macroeconomic events for further direction.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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