USD shorts grew, EUR longs surge back - Rabobank

According to the IMM net speculators’ positioning as at April 10, 2018, USD short positions grew again last week, though they remain below their February levels. 

Key Quotes

The market continues to be concerned about the economic impact on the US of a trade war, though hope is rising that compromises may be found.”

EUR longs have risen back to levels last seen in late January. Hawkish remarks from an ECB official prompted some support for the single currency. However, signs that the Eurozone economy could be losing some momentum may undermine hawkish sentiment.”

Net GBP longs continued to rise. Recent news of a deal between the UK and EU on the Brexit Transition deal and speculation of a BoE May rate hike have been supportive.”

Net JPY positions have been back in positive territory for two consecutive weeks. Fears of a trade wars, concerns about a military conflict between the US and Russia in Syria and domestic concerns regarding a Abe linked property scandal are supporting the safe haven JPY.”

CHF net shorts increased moderately last week, though they are currently only about half the size of the shorts registered in late January. This is evidence of a decline in risk appetite though fear of SNB intervention could prevent strong surges in demand for the CHF going forward.”

CAD shorts consolidated after the recent aggressive fall from positive ground.  Expectations of steady BoC policy this week have undermined the CAD. Oil prices, Nafta and trade wars also remain in view. AUD shorts have grown further. The threat of global trade wars and the impact of this on Chinese growth has created fresh anxiety recently.”

 

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Tuesday, 19 March 2019

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