A positive start to the week


Markets overreact to cancelled farm visit

Markets were a little bit shaky into the close on Friday following news reports that the Chinese delegation in Washington had cancelled a proposed visit to US farm states. Market pessimists assumed that this meant the trade talks had not gone well, and so pushed US indices lower into the close. The US30 index finished 0.72% lower to post the first down-week in four weeks, the NAS100 dropped 1.03% and the SPX500 fell 0.68%.


US30 Weekly Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade


However, it turned out over the weekend that the cancellation had nothing to do with trade talks and so equity markets have rebounded in early trading at the start of this week. The US30 index is up 0.37%, the SPX500 has gained 0.40% and the NAS100 has risen 0.46%. A Tokyo holiday has perhaps reduced liquidity so the moves may have been a tad exaggerated.


Risk currencies rebound

On the currency front, it looks very much like a risk-on play, with the yen sliding 0.15% versus the US dollar to 107.71 and the Australian dollar rising 0.20% to 0.6779 against the dollar and 0.33% against the yen to 73.02. The US dollar index, the measure of the dollar’s value against six major currencies is trading 0.05% lower at 98.46.

AUD/USD looks poised for its first positive day in four days after posting the biggest weekly loss in eight weeks last week. It looks as if the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the September 3-12 rally at 0.6767 is holding for now.


AUD/USD Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade


September PMIs on tap

It’s a day of flash manufacturing PMIs from Market today, with recent surveys suggesting a slightly better of flat reading compared with last month. Germany’s PMI is seen improving to 44.0 from 43.5, though it would still be the seventh consecutive monthly reading below the 50 contraction/expansion threshold. For the Euro-zone, a climb to 47.3 from 47.0 is expected, but again it will have been below the 50 level for a seventh month. The reading for the US looks slightly better and is seen steady at 50.3.

Other data points/events include the Chicago Fed activity index for August (marginal improvement to -0.35 from -0.36 is seen, and a speech from the Fed’s Williams, a voter this year with a dovish bias.


The full MarketPulse data calendar can be viewed at https://www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/


This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Andrew Robinson

A seasoned professional with more than 30 years’ experience in foreign exchange, interest rates and commodities, Andrew Robinson is a senior market analyst with OANDA, responsible for providing timely and relevant market commentary and live market analysis throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Having previously worked in Europe, since moving to Singapore he worked with several leading institutions including Bloomberg, Saxo Capital Markets and Informa Global Markets, proving FX strategies based on a combination of technical and fundamental analysis as well as market flow information. Andrew began his career as an FX dealer with NatWest and the Royal Bank of Scotland in the UK.

Andrew Robinson

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Saturday, 16 November 2019

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