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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 20 - 24, 2019



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The upcoming elections to the European Parliament, as well as multi-episode confusion with Brexit continue to put pressure on the European currency. Even the escalation of tensions in the US-China trade war does not help the euro: despite the fighting mood of the PRC leadership, the markets are betting on the US victory. And the failure of China will automatically exacerbate the problems of the closely related Eurozone.
Recall that, giving a monthly forecast, 70% of experts have expressed an opinion that the pair will continue to move along the medium-term downward channel and will again test the low of the end of April 1.1110. The past week was a confirmation that this forecast was correct: the pair lost about 80 points in five days and finished not far from the set goal, at around 1.1155;

- GBP/USD. Nothing new has happened here, and the movements of this pair still depend on just one short word, Brexit. Last week, we expressed the opinion that Prime Minister May would not be able to solve this problem at all. And now the media is full of headlines about her inevitable resignation. The impossibility (or inability) of the government to negotiate with the opposition brings the pound down. As a result, the pair easily broke through the April lows and, starting the week from 1.3000, completed it at 1.2715, losing 285 points;

- USD/JPY. The result of the last week for this pair is almost zero, the difference in quotes between midnight on Friday, May 10 and midnight on May 17 did not exceed 10 points, and the pair ended the week at 110.00;

- Cryptocurrencies. Few people had expected this: in six days, Bitcoin quotes soared by 30%, reaching $8,335 on Thursday May 16 and exceeding the most optimistic forecast of experts by almost $1,000. The increase since the beginning of the year has made 120%, which, according to Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, means the arrival of the next season after the crypto winter, "crypto spring".
The reason for such a “spring” mood was the closure of short positions by major players and the opening of long ones at the level of $5,500-6,000, after which numerous small investors joined them. Some experts also believe that a sharp aggravation in the trade war between the United States and China played a role, after which Chinese investors decided to protect their capital by investing in Bitcoin.
However, the main cryptocurrency has failed to firmly fix at the heights taken. Part of the players began to fix profits, and by Friday evening, May 17, the BTC/USD pair slipped to the level of $7,000, losing more than half of the gains won from the bears and leaving those who had opened long positions above this zone, counting possible losses.
As for the main altcoins, as usual, they followed their “elder brother”, repeating its rise and its fall. As a result, Litecoin (LTC/USD) increased by 11% over the past week, Ripple (XRP/USD) by 25%, and Ethereum (ETH/USD), showing the best result, by 30%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The greatest interest this week is focused on the American Fed. The head of this organization, Jerome Powell, will speak at the annual conference on financial markets on Tuesday, May 21, with a report on the risks of the US financial system. And the next day, the minutes of the Fed's Open Market Committee meeting of May 1 will be released. Investors are looking forward to what will be said in the report and in the protocol on the future monetary policy of the Fed, as well as what forecasts will be made there on the US economy.
At the moment, the situation looks quite optimistic, and 75% of experts, supported by the overwhelming majority of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1, expect the US currency to strengthen further. In their opinion, the pair will definitely try to break through support in the zone of the April lows and will drop below the level of 1.1100.
At the same time, 15% of oscillators warn of the pair being oversold. A correction to the north is also expected by 25% of analysts and graphical analysis on D 1, which draws the rise of the pair to the resistance of 1.1265, and possibly even higher, to a height of 1.1335. However, as already mentioned, the events listed above on May 21 and 22 may have a strong influence on the behavior of the pair;

https://nordfx.com/data/posts/2019/05/18/1558189666_EURUSD_20.05.2019.png



- GBP/USD. It seems that the market does not know what other surprises can be expected in the next Brexit episodes. When will the resignation of May take place and which of the British parties will win the elections to the European Parliament? What will the next, fourth in a row, vote of the bill on the withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU bring? There are more questions than answers, and in such a situation, the majority (60%) of the experts simply shrug. The rest of the experts are equally divided, giving 20% of votes to the bulls and the same to the bears.
As for the readings of the indicators, they are exactly the same as for EUR/USD. Similarly, 15% of oscillators are in the oversold zone, and graphical analysis on D1 insists on upward corrections. The support levels are 1.2665, 1.2614, 1.2475 and 1.2400. The resistance levels are 1.2865, 1.3000 and 1.3165.
It should be noted that in the transition to the forecast for the coming months, the number of supporters of bulls, waiting for the rise of the pair above 1.3200, increases to 65%. The increase of the consumer price index (CPI), which will be published on Wednesday May 22, and is projected to grow from 1.9% to 2.1%, may help the pound sterling this week;

- USD/JPY. Data on Japan's GDP growth will be released on Monday, May 20, and analysts expect it to be zero. Such a result could be a bad signal for the yen, and it will continue its retreat against the dollar. 50% of analysts expect the pair to rise to the height of 111.00. A third of experts believe that the pair will move in the range of 109.00-110.00. As for the remaining 20%, in their opinion, the Japanese currency will strengthen to the values around 108 yen per $1.
At the same time, almost all experts agree that the main trends for this pair will be determined not in Tokyo, but in the USA, and depend on the Fed's forecasts on Tuesday and Wednesday, as well as the course of battles on the fields of the US-China trade war.

- Cryptocurrencies. Despite the bad news last Friday, crypto bulls along with crypto hamsters, who obtained their bitcoins back in the autumn of 2017, hope that the fall of the BTC/USD pair to the $7,000 mark is just a correction, and Bitcoin will soon continue to grow. About 50% of experts agree with them. The target for the coming months is the height of $10,000. And in the opinion of the Canaccord Genuity analysts, the BTC rate will reach $20,000 over two years. “We have found a coincidence between the periods of 2011-2015 and 2015-2019 and have realized that the first cryptocurrency operates within the framework of four-year cycles. This is confirmed by the fact that the decrease in the miner’s reward occurs every four years,” their statement says.
A quarter of experts suggest that the pair will find it difficult to consolidate above the resistance level of $8,500 (it was there that its growth stopped last July) and for some time it will move closer to this horizon, then moving away from it.
And finally, the remaining 25% of analysts predict Bitcoin to decline to support $6,000, based on which the pair moved from February to November 2018.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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Crypto-talk is an online space for the Crypto community. We provide the latest news, we provide the latest prices. We host a chatroom dedicated towards crypto enthusiasts and a forum for discussions about Bitcoin, Altcoins, blockchain technology and the Cryptocurrency economy.

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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 13 - 17, 2019




First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The main economic event of recent days was the failure of the US-China trade negotiations. The United States decided to increase duties on a number of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%, after which the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that it would be forced to take retaliatory measures. However, the market reacted rather sluggishly even to these statements, the range of weekly fluctuations of the pair did not exceed 85 points, and it could not penetrate the resistance 1.1250;

- GBP/USD. The movements of this pair are still dependent on just one short word: Brexit. The hope for the agreement of the British Prime Minister Theresa May with the opposition leader Jeremy Corbin regarding the conditions for leaving the EU melted away like the morning fog. As a result, the British currency collapsed by more than 200 points, reaching the local bottom at 1.2965. After that, a correction followed, and the pair completed the week at 1.3000;

- USD/JPY. Judging by the charts of the major pairs, the market events affect mostly the Japanese currency. The problems in the US-China negotiations and a decline in investors' inclination for risky investments allowed the yen to win back about 150 points from the dollar and return to the values of the end of March in the zone 109.70-109.95;

- Cryptocurrencies. Whether Bitcoin will ever become a sustainable global asset is still a question. However, the fact that it regains a place in the TOP of objects for investment is a fact. A recent study by Binance research showed that since the beginning of 2019, the value of the reference cryptocurrency has grown by more than 50%, the price of oil has increased by 33%, technology stocks have grown by 18%, and the gold has lost about 1% of its value. Such advanced dynamics of BTC cannot leave investors indifferent. For example, according to the consulting agency deVere Group, 68 percent of wealthy people with a fortune of more than $500 million intend to invest in Bitcoin in the next 2-3 years (700 businessmen from the United States, Great Britain, Switzerland, Spain and the UAE participated in the survey).
In the meantime, the market capitalization has come close to the $190 billion mark, having updated the highs since the beginning of the current year, and Bitcoin is implementing the May scenario at an accelerated pace. Recall that 70% of experts have given a forecast that the BTC/USD pair should rise above $ 6,000 during May. However, this happened as early as on May 3, and it reached $6,400 by the end of last week.
As for the main altcoins, unlike their “older brother”, they showed either zero, like Ethereum (ETH/USD), or a negative trend: Litecoin (LTC/USD) fell by 11.0%, and Ripple (XRP/USD) - by 9%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. According to the market, at the moment, China’s deal with the United States is mostly needed for China, whose economy is under great pressure. However, the continuation of the trade war could turn into major problems for Americans, pushing the country into recession. In such a situation, according to the May poll of the Wall Street Journal, 51% of experts believe that, instead of tightening monetary policy, the US Federal Reserve is more likely to ease it. (In April 44% of respondents voted for easing, and they were only 19% in March). Now, 60% of experts supported by graphical analysis on D1 prefer the euro, believing that the pair may grow to the zone 1.1280-1.1325 in the near future. The next targets are the highs of March 1.1400 and 1.1450.
On the other hand, China’s current problems may have a negative impact on the economy of the Eurozone, which has very close ties with it. And this gives rise to some concern regarding the strength of the European currency. In the transition to the monthly forecast, 70% of the experts side with the bears, believing that the pair will continue to move along the medium-term downward channel and again test the end of April low at 1.1110. Graphical analysis on H4 and 15% of oscillators on H4 and D1, which give signals the pair is overbought, side with the bears as well. The nearest support is 1.1175 and 1.1140;
As for the upcoming events to which you should pay attention, there will be data on foreign direct investment in the Chinese economy, which will be released on Monday, May 13, as well as statistics on the GDP of Germany and the Eurozone and data on retail sales in the United States on Wednesday, May 15.

- GBP/USD. Statistics on the UK labor market will be published on Tuesday, May 14. However, whatever these indicators may be, the main problem remains Brexit. There is a steady feeling that Prime Minister May may not be able to solve this issue at all, and this continues to put pressure on the British currency.
65% of analysts believe that the pound will continue to fall, with which most trend indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D 1 agree. The nearest support is 1.2985, the target is April lows in the 1.2870 zone.
The remaining 35% of experts vote for the pair's return above level 1.3100, the target is 1.3200. As for the oscillators, at the time of writing the forecast, they have taken a neutral position on both timeframes;

- USD/JPY. 55% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis and 85% of indicators, believe that, as a safe haven currency, the yen will continue to strengthen its position, pushing the dollar further down to support 109.00 and then another 50 points lower. At the moment, only 45% of experts and 15% of oscillators side with the bulls, signaling the pair is oversold. However, in the transition to a longer-term forecast, it is already 80% of analysts who expect the pair to return to the range of 111.00-112.00;

- Cryptocurrencies. So, Bitcoin has reached a very strong support/resistance zone, noted back in February 2018. Analysts of the Galaxy company assume that this coin can rise in price to 400 thousand dollars in future. But this will happen only if it loses full decentralization and operates according to the rules of large institutional investors. In the meantime, 60% of experts believe that in the near future the pair will fluctuate in the range of $6,100-6,840, where it stayed in last September-October, before collapsing in mid-November.
20% of analysts are inclined to believe that, in the event of a favorable news background, the positive dynamics of the last months will continue, and Bitcoin quotes will reach the height of $7,400. As for the remaining 20%, they look at the situation more pessimistically, expecting the pair to return to the $5,570-5,850 zone.

https://nordfx.com/data/posts/2019/05/11/1557586597_BTCUSD_13.05.2019.png




Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/
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NordFX Is Named the Best Cryptocurrency Broker for the Third Year in a Row




Starting from 2017, the brokerage company NordFX has been awarded many professional awards for achievements and innovations in crypto trading. And at the end of this April, its collection got one more award: NordFX has been named the Best Cryptocurrency Broker according to the respected international online portal FXDailyinfo.

https://nordfx.com/data/posts/2019/05/03/1556889546_FXDailyinfo_NEWS.png



The year 2018 has become one of the most difficult for the cryptocurrency market. And in these conditions, often called “crypto winter”, NordFX offered its customers not just to invest in digital assets, but actively trade them, profiting both on their purchase and their sale.

For exchange trading, the company's IT specialists connected the world's most popular MetaTrader 4 and 5 platforms with a special bridge, creating a unique specialized trading and analytical cluster that allows not only to quickly analyze the market situation, but also to make short-term transactions, profiting even on the smallest fluctuations of the market.

Thanks to the Depth of the Market, everything is as transparent as possible, and every limit order is visible to all trade participants. At the same time, clients trade exclusively with each other, and the broker's participation as one of the parties to the transaction is completely excluded.

18 basic crypto pairs, cross pairs, and 4 crypto indexes are available for trading 24/7/365, without weekends or holidays. At the same time, NordFX clients can increase their profits tenfold due to margin trading. It only takes $100 (MetaTrader 5) or $300 (MetaTrader 4) to open a position of 1 Bitcoin.

It is also worth noting that NordFX is highly reliable: over the years (NordFX has been in the market for ten years now), the broker has acquired considerable experience in blocking off hacker attacks using most advanced software. That is why, over the years, the company has not encountered a single case of hacking, in contrast to crypto-exchanges, where hacking of clients' wallets is fairly frequent.

Winners in the FXDailyinfo Awards nominations are determined by an open vote of visitors to the online portal, which makes this award particularly valuable, as it most objectively reflects the views of the professional community. And we are sincerely grateful to everyone who voted for NordFX, for such a high appreciation of our work.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #forex #forex_forecast #signals_forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin


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Basel III Standard: Will Gold Become Global Currency Instead of the Dollar?




March 29 this year saw the start of the Bank for International Settlements new rules implementation final phase. Some experts believe that returning the status of money to gold should put an end to the absolute power of the dollar. According to their forecasts, the US currency may fall by 40% by December, and may lose its value at the beginning of next year.

https://nordfx.com/data/posts/2019/05/04/1556981261_1830-2019_Gold.png



Three Events that Shook the World of Gold

Since 1879, the US monetary system was based on the so-called “gold standard”, which tied the paper money supply to the size of the country's gold reserves, and $20 could at any time be exchanged for a troy ounce of this precious metal.

After 55 years, in 1934 US President Franklin Roosevelt approved the Gold Reserve Act. According to this document, private ownership of gold was declared illegal, and all the precious metal was subject to sale to the US Treasury. A year later, when all gold was transferred from private ownership to state hands, Roosevelt raised the price by 70% to $35 per troy ounce, which enabled him to print the corresponding amount of paper money.

The price of gold remained stable for the next four decades, keeping around $35, until early 1970s when another president, Richard Nixon, decided to abandon the “gold standard” altogether. This completely untied the government’s hands, allowing printing of infinite volumes of fiat currency, and gold prices, which had ceased to be money, would grow exponentially.

And in spring 2019, the media broke the news of another revolutionary event: on March 29, the final phase of the implementation of the new rules was due to start, according to which the yellow metal was once again becoming the same first-class asset as cash notes and government bonds.

The rules adopted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and named "Basel III Standard» (by the place of the BIS location - Basel, Switzerland), made it possible for some experts to state that once gold returns its monetary status, it should become No. 1 money, pushing the unsecured US dollar out of the market. Since the obligation to exchange notes for precious metals now did not fall on the US Treasury, but directly on the banks, they had to start actively buying gold in order to maintain stability during the collapse of the dollar system. According to the forecasts of these experts, the US currency could have fallen by about 40% by December, and at the beginning of the next year it would lose its value completely.


Science Fiction or Reality: 155 000 USD per Ounce?

- And what happened on March 29? - This question is addressed to the brokerage company NordFX leading analyst, John Gordon.

- Here is what happened, - he points to the chart. - Instead of soaring to the skies, literally the day before the gold lost more than eight percent of its price.

I think that it is clearly premature to talk about the death of the dollar. It should be borne in mind that, although the Bank for International Settlements unites more than 60 Central Banks of different countries, its documents are advisory rather than mandatory. Moreover, some sources claim that the decision on revaluation of gold and the date of introduction of this rule was made not at the BIS general meeting, but by a narrow circle of the major regulators. This is the US Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bundesbank and the banks of England and France. And many major importers of gold, such as, for example, China, India, Russia or Japan, were not present there.

In order for gold to become valuable money again,” continues the NordFX analyst, “ it is necessary to establish gold parity, that is, its fixed content, at least in the leading world currencies.

Let's do a simple calculation. The price of gold is $1280 per ounce Now, or about $41 per gram. And now let's calculate how much the gold will cost if we set the parity between the dollar mass and the gold reserves of the United States. So, according to the 2018 data, the US gold reserves are 8,133.5 tons, and the dollar mass, including bank deposits, is about $40 trillion. We divide one by the other and find that the price of one gram of gold should be $5000, or $155.5 thousand per troy ounce. That is, 120 times more than it is today.
The US national debt is more than $22 trillion, and it is difficult even to imagine what will happen if at least some of the creditors demand to exchange their fiat money for real gold.

“I think that, despite their primitiveness,” concludes John Gordon, “these calculations clearly show that a return to the times of a century and a half ago, when every dollar, pound, ruble or mark was provided with the country's gold reserves, is hardly possible.


What Else Do Experts Say

The London Precious Metals Association (London Bullion Market Association, LBMA) conducted a survey of 30 analysts, asking them to predict the price of gold for 2019. If you average their opinions, then you can talk about a modest growth of only 1.8%. However, two thirds of respondents believe that at some point during the year the value of this precious metal may reach or even exceed the mark of $1,400 per ounce.

The most optimistic is Eddie Nagao of Sumitomo, who names the price at $1,475. According to him, gold will be one of the preferred assets among institutional and private investors, as the probability of a recession in the United States is constantly growing.

As for the pessimists, here Adam Williams of Fastmarkets MB (Metal Bulletin) has taken the first line. His scenario provides for a decline below $1,200. According to the bears, gold was the decisive factor for investors in November 2018 - February 2019. But in the case of a trade deal between the United States and China, the demand for safe-haven assets, including gold, will quickly fall, and the price will go down.
If we talk about a longer-term forecast, the model constructed by Gary S. Wagner, an analyst and producer of the daily newsletter The Gold Forecast, seems interesting. According to his calculations, the last major bullish wave began at the end of 2015, after the correction to $1040, and assumes that gold can re-test the record highs of 2011, having reached the price of $2070-2085 dollars per ounce in 2020.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #forex #forex_forecast #signals_forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin


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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 29 - May 03, 2019




First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As said in the previous forecast, the euro has returned to the boundaries of the four-month downward channel. And 70% of the experts, supported by graphical analysis, considered that in such a situation, the European currency would continue to lose ground, dropping into the zone of the 2019 lows, 1.1175-1.1185. Expectations of strong economic statistics from the US were pushing the euro down for the whole week, confirming the validity of such a forecast. The pair even exceeded the “plan”, dropping to the level of 1.1110 by the middle of Friday, April 26.
The Released macroeconomic data did turn out to be quite positive. Orders for capital products rose from 0.1% to 1.3%, while the GDP increased by one percent compared to the previous quarter (3.2% compared to 2.2%). However, the market considered that the goals set had already been achieved. Positions were closed before the weekend, and after a slight correction, the pair set a final point at the level of 1.1147;

- GBP/USD. The forecast for this pair was also quite accurate. Recall that the overwhelming majority of experts (75%) had voted that the pair would be able to overcome the medium-term level of support in the area of 1.2975, after which it would rush to the zone of 1.2770-1.2830.
That is exactly what happened: on Tuesday, April 23, the pair broke through this support and abruptly went down. The week low was fixed at 1.2865, and the pair completed the five-day period at the level of 1.2915;

- USD/JPY. Analysts' opinions on the behavior of this pair last week were almost equally divided: a third voted for its growth, a third were for a fall, and a third for a continuation of the lateral movement. As sometimes happens, it was such a “blurred” forecast that turned out to be the most correct. At first, the pair moved in a very narrow side channel only 15 points wide. Then, the volatility gradually started to grow, and the pair rose to the level of 112.40, and then, probably due to the fall in the pair with the yuan (USD/CNY), the dollar slipped to the Japanese yen as well, touching a local bottom at 111.35. After that, the pair returned to the horizon 111.60, having lost about 30 points in a week;

- Cryptocurrencies. As has been said many times, the cryptocurrency movement is largely motivated by the news background. At the same time, 65% of experts believed that even with positive news, the BTC/USD would fail to break through the resistance of $5,500 in the near future. In case the news background gets worse, the bears would try to press the pair to support $4,600.
In general, this forecast can be considered correct. It was in the middle of the week that several attempts were made to consolidate above the upper boundary of this echelon, and the pair stayed around $5,650 for some time. However, after it became known on Thursday, April 25, that the State of New York Attorney's office accused the Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange of hiding the disappearance of $850 million of corporate and client funds, the Bitcoin quotes flew down. On some exchanges, the BTC price dropped to $4,600, and at Bitfinex itself, the collapse was stopped at $5,065.
The exchange management completely denies any losses, stating that these funds have not been lost, but confiscated. And the exchange makes every effort to return them and intends to defend its good name in court. The final of this criminal story has yet to be learned. In the meantime, the pair quotes have returned to the level of the beginning of the week, to the $5,370 zone.
As for the major altcoins, after the collapse, unlike Bitcoin, they were not able to fully restore the lost positions. Ethereum (ETH/USD) lost about 9.5% during the week, Litecoin (LTC/USD) fell by 11.0%, and Ripple (XRP/USD) lost about the same amount (10.4%).


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The relatively good performance of the US economy and growing concerns about the Eurozone economy and, in particular, Germany, are forcing investors to look at the dollar as a protection against global economic and political risks. Thus, on April 28, extraordinary parliamentary elections will be held in Spain, and in a month, elections to the European Parliament will take place, fueled by the Brexit problem. The ambiguity of the outcome of these events pressures the euro.
As for the United States, here the market will look at the rhetoric of the Fed, the next meeting of which will take place on May 1. The focus there will be the issue of a possible interest rate reduction. Among other events of the coming week, it is necessary to note the publication of the report on inflation in the United States on Monday April 29; the data on the Eurozone GDP and the Consumer Price Index (HICP) of Germany on Tuesday; and the data on the Eurozone consumer market and on the US labor market (including NFP) on Friday, May 3.
Last week, the EUR/USD pair dropped to the level of 1.1110, which is not only the 2019 low, but also the lowest value since mid-2017. And 75% of analysts, supported by 90% of indicators on D1, believe that the fall will not stop here, and the pair may first reach the lower boundary of the downward channel in the 1.1080 area, and then go even lower, to the zone 1.0970-1.1030.
The remaining 25% of analysts are inclined to believe that the pair may linger in the range of 1.1110-1.1250 with Pivot Point in the area of 1.1175 for some time. Graphical analysis on H4 and 10% of oscillators on D1, which signal that the pair is oversold, adhere to the same point of view.
It should be noted that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the number of Euro-bulls, who believe that the pair will return to the zone 1.1400-1.1600, is almost 55%;

https://nordfx.com/data/posts/2019/04/27/1556375424_EURUSD_29.04.2019.png



- GBP/USD. The pair has broken through the medium-term support level at 1.2975, and the overwhelming majority of experts (90%), supported by 100% of the oscillators and trend indicators on D1, believe that it will definitely retest the low of April 25 at 1.2865 and, if successful, sink to 1.2770-1.2830. The opposite point of view is expressed by 10% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1 , indicating the zone 1.2985-1.3015 as the closest target. The next resistance is 1.3065.
As before, 60% of experts still hope in the medium term for the Bank of England to raise interest rates and, as a result, strengthen the British currency. The next meeting of the regulator will be held on Thursday 02 May. However, the likelihood of a rate hike is close to zero already this week;

- USD/JPY. There is still no clarity about the movement of this pair, and the opinions of the experts are almost equally divided. A small advantage (55%) is with the bulls, expecting it to return to the level of 112.00, and, possibly, to the April 24 high at the height of 112.40.
45% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 strongly disagree with such a forecast, they believe that the dollar will continue to fall, first to the level of 111.35, and then to the level of 110.85;

- Cryptocurrencies. In a situation of uncertainty, experts are divided into three equal camps: the bears (their target for Bitcoin is $4,800), the bulls (target $5,700) and the side trend supporters (Pivot Point $5,300). At the same time, 70% of respondents believe that the BTC/USD will rise above the level of $6,000 within May.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 22 - 26, 2019




First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Most experts (65%) expected that the pair would go down. This forecast was supported by signals from a third of the oscillators indicating that the pair was overbought. All this happened: the weekly amplitude of fluctuations was about 100 points, and the low was fixed at 1.1225.
Perhaps the fall of the euro on Thursday, April 18, would not have been so strong if it had not been for the short working week before Catholic Easter, when many banks and exchanges were closed on Good Friday. The main reasons for the fall were disappointing market data on business activity in the Eurozone and dollar-friendly data on retail sales in the United States.
On Friday evening, the European currency, however, managed to win back some of the losses, and the pair completed the week at 1.1240;

- GBP/USD. This pair showed a slightly larger amplitude - 140 points. At the same time, the experts indicated the precise low to which it should sink. Actually, with the forecast at 1.2985, the pair felt the bottom at the horizon 1.2978 - inside the support zone, which it has been unsuccessfully trying to break through for two months already;

- USD/JPY. Some experts expected the growth of this pair, some thought it would fall. However, fluctuations with a maximum range of 40 points can hardly be attributed to bullish or bearish trends. For the whole week, we were able to observe the classic sideways trend, which started at 112.00 and ended at 111.92;

- Cryptocurrencies. As has been said many times, the cryptocurrency movement is largely motivated by the news background, which this week was mildly positive. The "guru" Involved in the crypto business continued to repeat the mantra of the imminent rise of Bitcoin. For example, Tom Lee, a former financial analyst at JPMorgan, and now co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, said that given the success of the first cryptocurrency this spring, Bitcoin's exchange rate to the dollar will show growth throughout the year and reach $10,000 by its end. And according to the head of the BitMEX exchange Arthur Hayes, in just a few years we will see BTC/USD quotes around $50,000. The main positive news of the week, in our opinion, was the message that the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund jointly launched an internal cryptocurrency. So far, only for the educational purposes of their employees. But as they say, the first step is the hardest.
As for our forecast, it came true almost 100%: the standard cryptocurrency stayed in the range of $4,975-5,370, adding about 3.5% over the week. Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin ((LTC/USD) showed an increase of about 4%, but the growth of Ripple (XRP/USD) was less than 2%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The world economy is moving towards recession, and much in Europe depends on how well EU leaders can withstand the negative trends. It is not only about how the political situation will develop in the EU countries, and not only about how the ECB will behave in an effort to stabilize the economic situation in the euro area, but also about how, for example, the US-China trade negotiations will end and how President Trump will behave after that. Many analysts believe that today, Europe is prepared for the global economic recession and external attacks worse than other economic blocs.
The past week brought the euro back within the 15-week downward channel. And 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, believe that the European currency will continue to give up its positions, falling to the zone of the 2019 lows - 1.1175-1.1185. It is only 30% of analysts that hope that the pair will be able to return to 1.1325. At the same time, attention should be paid to the data on the US GDP, which will be published on Friday, April 26. According to forecasts, the GDP growth will be only 1.8%, which is significantly lower than the previous value of 2.2%. If this prediction turns out to be correct, bulls can move the pair to the next target at the height of 1.1420;

- GBP/USD. The pair completed the previous five days in the support zone of 1.2975, which it has been trying to break through for eight weeks already. Most experts (75%) believe that it will succeed and will be able to descend to the zone of 1.2770-1.2830. However, some analysts hope that amid the dovish rhetoric of the ECB and the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England will nevertheless decide to raise the interest rates. One can add to this the still persistent euphoria caused by the delay of Brexit. taken together, these factors let the bulls hope for the pair to return above the 1.3100 mark. The nearest resistance levels are 1.3130 and 1.3200. It is only 25% of analysts who agree that this will happen next week. But in the transition to the monthly forecast, 60% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 side with the bulls. As for the readings of oscillators, 15% of them signal that the pair is oversold, which means, if not a complete reversal of the trend, then at least a quick correction of the pair upwards;

https://nordfx.com/data/posts/2019/04/20/1555766346_GBPUSD_22.04.2019.png



- USD/JPY. We expect the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision and a press conference on the monetary policy of this Bank on Thursday, April 25. However, both of these events are unlikely to present any surprises. The side trend of this pair is also not conducive to forecast accuracy. That is why analysts' opinions on its behavior in the next five days have been divided almost equally: a third are for for its growth, a third are for a fall, and a third are for a continuation of the lateral movement. However, in the longer term, 65% of the experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, vote for the pair to fall. 25% of oscillators also give signals that it is overbought. At the moment, the pair is still in the reversal zone near the upper boundary of the medium-term channel 109.70-112.15, and, in the case of its downward movement, the targets for it will be the support levels 110.85, 110.35 and the lower boundary of the channel 109.70.
If the dollar continues to grow against the Japanese currency, then its immediate task will be to consolidate in the zone of 112.20-113. 25 The next resistance is at 113.70;

- Cryptocurrencies. Despite a more or less positive news background, 65% of experts remain pessimistic, believing that in the near future the BTC/USD pair will not be able to break through the resistance of $5,500. Moreover, according to their forecasts, bears will have a certain advantage in this market, pressing the pair to support $4,600. However, during the transition to the medium-term forecast, the alignment of forces changes to the opposite, and here already 60% of analysts believe that Bitcoin quotes at $5,750-5,800 are realistic.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 15 - 19, 2019




First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Many traders complain of low volatility in the market. But even despite the pessimism of Mario Draghi shown by him after the ECB meeting on Wednesday 10 April, the euro managed to win back about 100 pips from the dollar over the past week and return to the very strong support/resistance zone of 1.1300, around which the pair started moving back in January 2015. The reason for this is most likely the delay in Brexit.
As a result, the forecast which was given by 40% of analysts, supported by 20% of oscillators signaling that the pair was oversold, turned out to be correct. According to them, having pushed off support in the 1.1200 zone, the pair had to go up to resistance 1.1255 and, in case of a breakthrough, reach the height of 1.1300. And this actually happened;

- GBP/USD. The overwhelming majority of analysts (65%) expected the strengthening of the British currency. Their forecast was based on the fact that an extraordinary meeting of the European Council would support a long extension of the Brexit procedure, and that the UK would not withdraw from the EU without a deal on April 12. That is exactly what happened. The British Parliament passed a law prohibiting a no-deal withdrawal, and the European Council delayed Brexit for up to six months. They would have given a longer delay if it were not for Macron, the president of France, who cannot wait to take the second place in the EU, after Germany, after the departure of the islanders.
Graphical analysis on D 1 indicated a level of 1.3120 as the main resistance zone, which the pair reached on Tuesday, April 9, but failed to overcome it after 3 attempts. And in the end it finished the week at 1.3070;

- USD/JPY. 85% of the experts were confident that the pair would necessarily test the upper limit of the medium-term channel 109.70-112.15. And on Friday, April 12, it almost reached the target, rising to the height of 112.09. However, before that, the pair dropped to the center line of this channel and, only pushing away from it, showed an impressive rise of 115 points. Such a rise of the pair and the strengthening of the dollar against the yen were caused, according to analysts, primarily by the increase in the yield of long-term US bonds in the last two working days of the week;

- Cryptocurrencies. The forecast for Bitcoin was justified by almost 100%. According to 70% of analysts, the main fluctuations of the BTC/USD pair were to occur in the range of $5,000-5,500, where it moved most of the time. Experts also expected bears to try to lower the pair below $4,800, however, all of the attempts were unsuccessful, and the local bottom was fixed at $4,930. As a result, the reference cryptocurrency completed the weekly cycle almost at the same place where it began, in the $5,100 zone.
It should be noted that $5,100 is exactly the height to which Bitcoin unexpectedly took off on Tuesday, April 2. According to the basic version, that price spike was caused by just one investor, who left bids for the purchase of BTC for $100 million on three major exchanges, Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp. And the fact that the bull trend has not found its development testifies in favor of this particular version, since a one-time purchase, even for $100 million, cannot be a sufficient reason to start a steady growth of the market.
And if Bitcoin, as well as Ethereum (ETH/USD), kept in the side corridor, the quotes of Ripple (XRP/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD), EOS and some other top altcoins went into minus. Just on Thursday, April 11, they sank an average of 10%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. If 60% of the trend indicators on D1 are still painted green, the oscillators show a completely different picture: a third of them have acquired a neutral gray color, and another third already signals the pair is overbought. 65% of experts also expect that if not immediately, then by the end of the month, the pair will go down, trying to test again, first the April 2 low - 1.1183, and then the March 07 low, 1.1175. The nearest support is 1.1250;
At the same time, graphical analysis on H4 suggests that before heading south, the pair may rise for a while above the level of 1.1300, reaching the height of 1.1350. The next target of the bulls is 1.1420;

https://nordfx.com/data/posts/2019/04/13/1555161320_EURUSD_15.04.2019.png



- GBP/USD. Experts believe that the euphoria caused by the Brexit delay will quickly subside, and the pair will stay in a side trend for some time, moving within 1.2985-1.3150. The nearest support is 1.3050, the resistance is 1.3120. However, in the transition to the medium-term forecast, it is already 60% of analysts who have sided with the bulls, expecting the strengthening of the British pound and the pair’s transition to the 1.3200 -1.3350 zone. But the accuracy of this forecast again depends on what will happen around Brexit. There remains a risk of a second referendum, which may entail both a refusal of Brexit in general and, conversely, a British exit from the EU without an agreement. Any news and rumors on this subject can quickly turn the trend in one direction or another, but for now the demand for British currency remains very weak;

- USD/JPY. The bull scenario remains a priority: 70% of the experts, supported by 100% of the trend indicators, look to the north. According to them, if the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds continues to grow, the pair, relying on support around 112.00, can rise to the area of 113.00-114.20.
However, since at the moment the pair is in the reversal zone near the upper boundary of the medium-term channel 109.70-112.15, a downward rebound of the pair is not excluded, as evidenced by signals from 25% of oscillators indicating it is overbought. Support levels are 110.85, 110.35 and the lower boundary of the channel is 109.70. USD/JPY quotes can also be affected by US-Japanese trade negotiations at the beginning of the upcoming week;

- Among other events to which attention should be paid are the following publications: data on the UK labor market and the index of business sentiment ZEW (Germany) on Tuesday, April 16; China's GDP, the UK Consumer Price Index and the Eurozone Inflation Report on Wednesday April 17; UK and US retail sales data on Thursday, April 18; and finally, Japan's consumer price index on Friday, April 19;

- Cryptocurrencies. In general, the news background around the main cryptocurrency is quite positive. The Bitcoin network has overcome another milestone. Over the entire history of the first cryptocurrency, its blockchain has processed more than 400 million transactions. At the moment, the network processes about 350 thousand transfers per day or 14.9 thousand per hour. Approximately 81.5 thousand BTC moves every 60 minutes, and the average transaction size is 5.44 BTC.
Financial analyst and co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee said optimistically in an interview with Bloomberg that Bitcoin is back in a bullish trend and the fair price for it today is $14,000. However, not everyone shares his attitude. For example, Brian Armstrong, the head of Coinbase Exchange, believes that the mass influx of investors into the crypto sphere will begin only after three main tasks related to digital assets have been solved. This is the scalability, usability and Bitcoin volatility.
If we talk about a medium-term forecast, the majority of analysts (70%) believe that the BTC/USD pair will necessarily reach $6,000. However, in the coming days, it is likely to move in the range of $4,935-5,335, making attempts to break through these boundaries in one direction or another. So, considering emissions, the range of fluctuations can be expanded to $4,600-5,500.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 08 - 12, 2019




First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The vast majority of analysts (75%), supported by 100% of trend indicators and 90% of oscillators, said last week that if the pair overcomes the support level of 1.1200, it will be able to continue moving down. The closest goal is the low of 2018-19, recorded on March 7, 1.1175. At the same time, graphical analysis on D1 stated that the pair would not be able to overcome this support and would return to the horizon 1.1340.
This is what in fact happened. True, the amplitude of oscillations was less than expected: the weekly low was fixed at 1.1183, and the high at 1.1254. As a result, the pair demonstrated the classic sideways trend. Traders even ignored the positive US dollar report on the US labor market, released on Friday, April 5, and the pair completed the working week at 1.1215;

- GBP/USD. The behavior of the pair is still dependent on the news of developing political and economic operation called Brexit. News from the “battlefield” - from the Parliament of Great Britain - initially pushed the pound up, since Teresa May promised to hold successful negotiations with the opposition leaders. Investors began to actively buy pounds, and, as predicted by graphical analysis, it quickly reached the center of the five-week side corridor 1.2960-1.3350 at the level of 1.3150.
But the first round of negotiations ended in failure, and investment funds began to close positions on the pound. At the same time, the negative background was supplemented by the news from the European Parliament, which mockingly rubs its hands, watching the rift of the British colleagues. As a result, the trend for this pair changed every two days and, having experienced a series of ups and downs, it put the final point almost at the same place as a week ago, at around 1.3035;

- USD/JPY. Recall that at the beginning of the week the pair was practically in the center of the channel 109.70-112.15. And the question was whether it would go down or up. Although only 35% of the experts voted for its growth, declarations of Donald Trump on the successful course of the US and China trade negotiations, and the growth of the US stock market moved the pair up. Having reached a high at 111.80 on Friday, April 5, after a small pullback, the pair completed the five-day week 10 points lower;

- Cryptocurrencies. Our forecast last week said that the bitcoin would be able to overcome the resistance of $4,200 and gain a foothold in the range of $4,200-4,280. But on Tuesday, April 2, the reference cryptocurrency made an unexpected jump and, soaring by 14.4%, broke the bar of $5,000. This movement was the strongest jump since the boom of the end of 2017.
Traders are wondering what is behind this surge, a variety of versions has been expressed. The version voiced by Oliver von Landsberg-Sadie, the head of the BCB Group, in an interview with Reuters, seems most likely. He said that the bitcoin price jump was caused by just one investor, who distributed bids for the purchase of BTC for $100 million on three major exchanges - Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp. The total volume of transactions then amounted to about 20.000 BTC, and the total capitalization of the crypto market exceeded $170 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. On Wednesday, April 10, we are waiting for the next ECB interest rate decision. Most likely, it will remain unchanged. But it became known that the European regulator is actively discussing options for more aggressive stimulation of the economy. This can be either a reduction in rates or an increase in the QE quantitative easing program. This news contributes to the growth of investor interest in shares of European companies and to a fall in interest in the European currency. Also, on Wednesday the meeting of the US Federal Reserve Committee minutes will be published, which should shed light on the further monetary policy of the American regulator.
For the nearest future, the strongest factor putting pressure on the euro, of course, is the tiresome mess with Brexit. Perhaps that is why 60% of the experts, supported by 100% of the indicators and 80% of the oscillators on D1, have voted for a further decline of the pair. The immediate goal is the low of 07 March 2019, 1.1175, the next support was recorded in the summer of 2017. and is located 60 points lower.
40% of analysts preferred the bulls. Moreover, it is already 20% of oscillators on D1 that give signals the pair is oversold. In their opinion, having pushed off support in the 1.1200 zone, the pair will go up to resistance 1.1255 and, in case of a breakthrough, move to the height of 1.1300. The next resistance is 1.1345.

- GBP/USD. Interestingly, if most experts believe that Brexit will continue to have a negative impact on the euro, the opinion on the pound is opposite. 65% of analysts expect the upcoming week to strengthen the British currency. Their forecast is based on the fact that the extraordinary meeting of the European Council on April 10 will support the extension of the Brexit procedure for a long time and that the UK’s withdrawal from the EU without a deal on April 12 will not take place. the graphical analysis on D1 is also in solidarity with such a forecast, indicating that the pair is growing, first to the zone of 1.3120, and then to resistances of 1.3200 and 1.3265.
A fall of the pair is expected by 35% of analysts and 90% of indicators. At the same time, 10% of oscillators are already signaling that the pair is oversold, which indicates the traders' doubts about the future of this pair. Support levels are 1.2975, 1.2900 and 1.2830;

- USD/JPY. Over the past two weeks, the pair has gone from the bottom of the medium-term channel 109.70-112.15 almost to its upper limit, ending the week at 111.70. And 85% of experts are sure that it will definitely test the resistance of 112.15. But those who believe that the pair will be able to rise even higher and reach the level of 113.00, are only 35%. So, the probability that the pair will not go beyond the upper limit of this channel is large enough. 25% of oscillators on D1, which are already in the overbought zone, agree with this. The basic support is Pivot Point of the channel 110.80;

https://nordfx.com/data/posts/2019/04/06/1554559709_USDJPY_08.04.2019.png



- Cryptocurrencies. An unexpected bitcoin jump spawned a whole wave of all sorts of events and rumors. Thus, the mysterious creator of Bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto has reappeared from oblivion. He has re-activated a Bitcointalk account that has been inactive for many years. Over the past 10 years, the identity of Satoshi has not been disclosed, although there are various assumptions about who may be hiding under this mask. Thus, a group of hackers who have hacked several large crypto-exchanges, believes that he is American entrepreneur, inventor and engineer Ilon Musk. In their opinion, the largest transactions with cryptocurrencies (possibly the last one for $100 million as well) were carried out from the Bel Air neighborhood in Los Angeles. And it is there that the legendary founder of SpaceX and Tesla has been living for many years.
As for the forecast, 70% of analysts believe that the main fluctuations of the BTC/USD pair in the coming week will occur in the range of $5,000-5,500. However, the remaining 30% are confident that a one-time purchase of bitcoins by one investor, even for $100 million, is not a sufficient reason to start a steady bull trend. And so the pair has a lot of chances to go below $4,800 horizon. In this case, the main level of resistance is the $5,100 horizon.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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