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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 25 - 29, 2019




First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The Federal Reserve has left the interest rate unchanged, at 2.5%, and is no longer going to raise it this year. The Fed also lowered its forecasts for US GDP and inflation and raised the unemployment forecast for 2019-2021.
Such actions and statements of the American regulator confirm the start of a recession, which should negatively affect the US currency. As a result, the dollar fell to the mark of $1.1447 for 1 euro on Thursday, March 20. But then, instead of continuing to decline, it recovered in relation to almost all major currencies, and, above all, in relation to the euro. This happened due to disappointing data from Germany – PMI (business activity index in the manufacturing sector) in February was only 44.7 instead of the expected value of 48.0. This news caused concern about the global economic crisis once again and led not only to a depreciation of the euro, but also to a sharp drop in stocks and bonds. The pair EUR/USD lost 175 points in two days, and then, after a small rebound, completed the week at 1.1300;

- GBP/USD. The Brexit final stage is delayed. The pitiable finale for the pound is delayed as well. The British currency lost about 300 points in the first four days of the week, coming close to the level of 1.3000. However, the pigeon rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve Head Jerome Powell and the “help” from the EU, which gave Prime Minister Teresa May time until April 12 to resolve the issue of accepting her deal, allowed the pound to move a little away from the brink of abyss and finish the five-day close to a strong support /resistance level 1.3200;

- USD/JPY. Unlike its European “colleagues”, the past week was successful for the yen. Against the backdrop of expectations of a recession, a revision of macroeconomic forecasts and a fall in the value of stocks and bonds in the United States and Europe, the pair dropped to 109.70 by mid-Friday, March 22, and the final chord sounded at 109.90;

- Cryptocurrencies. All sorts of gurus continue to hypnotize the public with predictions of an upcoming rise of digital currencies. So, famous American venture investor Tim Draper believes that the massive transition to cryptocurrency will begin in about two years' time. And Tom Lee, a financial analyst and co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, has given a shorter-term forecast, having said in an interview to CNBC that the bearish sentiment on the bitcoin market will be replaced by the bullish one within six months. The turning point, in his opinion, will be in August, and the BTC rate can easily reach $10-20,000.
In contrast to this, yet virtual, optimism, quite real pessimistic notes are heard. For example, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), which once launched Bitcoin futures trading, has now refused to add new contracts.
On such a news background, as we predicted, the BTC/USD did not manage to break above the $4,150 horizon. The only hope for investors can be the fact that the pair did not fall below $4,000 for almost the entire week, which allows us to go on talking about an uptrend, albeit a weak one.
Also, the Litecoin (LTC/USD) has not left the limits of the ascending channel, the Ethereum (ETH/USD) is consolidating near the $139.00 horizon, and for the Ripple (XRP/USD), a 10-week Pivot Point can be considered the level of $0.318.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The situation with this pair can be described as a complete ... uncertainty. On the one hand, the slowdown in US GDP, on the other - disappointment with the prospects for the German economy. The Fed’s refusal to raise the interest rate is playing against the dollar, and the endless uncertainty with the UK leaving the EU is playing against the euro. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds touched more than a year's bottom, but the yield on 10-year German bonds is on the verge of falling below 0%. US futures S&P 500 fell by 0.5%, and European stocks are in the red, approaching as for the main indexes to a loss of 1%.
This swing can be swung indefinitely. That is why the votes of experts this week have been evenly divided, 50 to 50. It should be noted that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, 70% of analysts are already on the side of bulls.
The graphical analysis on H4 draws first the rise to the level of 1.1380 for the coming days, then the fall to the level of 1.1175, after which the pair should return to the limits of the medium-term corridor 1.1215-1.1570.
As for the events of the coming week, we can note the speech of the ECB Head Mario Draghi on Wednesday, March 27, as well as the publication of the German consumer price index and annual data on US GDP on Thursday, March 28. Moreover, according to the forecast, the real value of GDP may be 0.2% lower than the previous one.

- GBP/USD. Prime Minister Theresa May asked the European Union to delay the exit of Britain from the EU until June 30, 2019. However, the EU has already said that the delay should be longer. Otherwise, there should be no delay at all. The transfer of Brexit for such a short time is a very undesirable option, as it simply prolongs the ambiguity, of which everyone is already rather tired, and which constantly puts pressure on the pound.
At the moment, most experts (60%) believe that the pair should test the level of 1.3000 again, and, in case of its breakdown, reach the bottom at the level of March 11 low, 1.2955.
An alternative point of view will be realized at the release of positive news regarding Brexit, in which case the pair can rise to the height of 1.3310. The following resistance levels are 1.3350 and 1.3 445;

https://nordfx.com/data/posts/2019/03/23/1553354344_GBPUSD_25.03.2019.png



- USD/JPY. The overwhelming majority of both trend indicators and oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored red. However, already 15% of oscillators on both timeframes signal that the pair is oversold. The graphical analysis on D1 speaks About a possible reversal of the trend to the north, according to its readings, the pair can return to the zone 110.75-112.15.
The opinions of the experts are divided as follows: 50% have voted for the pair to fall further, 30% are for its upward reversal and 20% are for its lateral movement. The formation of trends , as this have been happening recently, will be influenced by news regarding the course of the US-China negotiations and macroeconomic indicators from Europe and the USA, supporting or refuting the possibility of a new global economic crisis;

- Cryptocurrencies. The total capitalization of the crypto market has slowly grown to the value of last November, checking out on Wednesday March 20 at the height of $141.6 billion. It is possible that this is why, for the first time in a long time, 70% of the experts have not given gloomy forecasts, and limited to moderate optimism. In their opinion, the BTC/USD pair will not fall below $3,900 next week but will try to overcome the resistance of $4,200. However, in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the balance of powers changes, and here, as before, 70% of analysts side with the bears, voting for the decline of the pair in spring below $3,000.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 18 - 22, 2019




First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. During the whole week, the European currency was pushed up not only by the growth of the Euro Stoxx 600 index, accompanied by the pigeon rhetoric of the ECB Head Mario Draghi, but also, above all, by an optimistic attitude regarding the exit conditions (and perhaps not the exit) of the UK from the EU. As a result, the pair re-consolidated within the medium-term corridor 1.1215-1.1570, in which it has been moving since end October 2018, and even approached its central line, reaching a height of 1.1338 on Wednesday, March 13.
Thursday, March 14, turned out to be the only bad day for the European currency. It became known on this day that there would be no meeting of the leaders of the United States and China, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, in March, and it may happen only in April. This news again aroused investors' interest in the dollar, though not for long, and the pair could be seen at 1.1345 on Friday. As for the end of the trading session, thanks to a strong University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the pair met it 20 points lower, at the level of 1.1325;

- GBP/USD. Most experts expected strengthening of the British currency and its growth in March first to the February high (1.3350), and then 200 points higher. This forecast starts to come true: last week's high was fixed at the height of 1.3380, and the pair completed the five-day marathon in the area of a very strong resistance level of 1.3300.
The weekly amplitude of oscillations reached 420 points. And if you look at the pair’s chart, it somehow resembles a cardiogram, whose jumps and falls are related to what was happening these days in London. The Parliament of Great Britain voted against a repeated referendum and spoke in favor of postponing Brexit's deadline to June 30. At the same time, the “hard” exit scenario, without a deal with the EU, was rejected. Now, Prime Minister Theresa May will have to bow to the European Union with a request to postpone Brexit. But the EU {0reaction to this is another question, since all 27 countries of this community should give their consent to this. And what will happen with the new agreement is also unclear. If the parties could not agree for more than two years, what can they do in the next three months?

- USD/JPY. As most analysts predicted, the pair remained within the ascending channel, which began at the very beginning of January 2019, and almost reached the bar at 112.00. It stayed only 10 points below this height, but the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, managed to halt the fall of his national currency.
Economic performance of Japan does not look best. The trade deficit is the largest in 6 years, and the reduction in exports to China is the highest in 2 years. This is partly due to the celebration of the New Year in China, but the fact remains that Japan has suffered greatly from the slowdown in global economic growth. The planned increase in sales tax for 2019 does not add optimism either.
However, according to Kuroda, things are not all that bad. “At present,” he said at a press conference on March 15, “our main scenario assumes the recovery of the economies of China and the eurozone in the second half of this year.” “And the Japanese economy itself remains in moderate expansion, and the impulse to achieve the inflation target of 2%, remains unchanged.”

- Cryptocurrencies. There is such a famous philosophical paradox, called Buridan's Ass. This is a parable of the ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle, and its meaning lies in the problem of choice. There is a donkey dying of hunger, and it stands exactly in the middle between two absolutely identical heaps of hay. Which one to choose? According to the parable, the donkey could not decide and, in the end, died of hunger.
There are no donkeys in the cryptocurrency community, there are bulls and bears, but even they have been roaming along one line for many weeks, not knowing which way to go in order to get enough profit.
The above is a metaphor. But the fact that the price of Bitcoin has consolidated around $3,900 is a fact. It is for the third week that the maximum volatility does not exceed 200-300 points. Some experts hopefully call this the end of the accumulation phase and the lull before a storm. But what is considered a storm?
As predicted, the BTC/USD pair moved in the $3,850-4,050 corridor last week. Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD) demonstrated similar modest volatility. And it was only Ripple (XRP/USD) that showed several spikes, although later everything calmed down and returned to normal.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. On the one hand, the slowdown in US GDP and the prospects for economic recovery in the Eurozone play in favor of the European currency. On the other hand, Trump’s threats to launch a new round of economic wars against the EU are causing alarm for the future of the Euro. As a result, most experts (65%) believe that the pair will continue to balance in the range of 1.1215-1.1570. At the same time, positive information on Brexit will contribute to its targeted advancement to the upper boundary of this channel. The nearest strong resistance is in the 1.1400 zone, the next one is 100 points higher.
On Wednesday, March 20, the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the traditional press conference of Jerome Powell, the head of this organization, await us. There will most likely be no surprises for the first issue, and the rate will remain unchanged so far. Most of the experts (60%) believe that its next increase will occur only in September or even later. But Powell can make adjustments to these forecasts in his speech, and then the pair may turn down, break down the lower border of the channel 1.1215, and return to the March 7 low, 1.1175. About 15% of experts do not even rule the decline of the pair in March-April to the area of 1.1000-1.1100;

https://nordfx.com/data/posts/2019/03/16/1552745922_EURUSD_18.03.2019.png



- GBP/USD. On Tuesday, March 19 and Wednesday, the 20th a block of macroeconomic data from the UK will be published, and on Thursday the 21st, the decision of the Bank of England on the interest rate. But all these events are fading compared to the next episode of the series called Brexit: there will be another vote in the Parliament on the deal with the EU on March 20, which will certainly cause the pair to increase its volatility.
The pair completed the past week in the zone of a very strong resistance level 1.3300, which it has been trying to overcome since last June. Whether this zone will become a level of support depends on the note on which this meeting of the Parliament ends, and also what signals will come from the Bank of England the next day. 70% of analysts, supported by 90% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1, are optimistic, considering that the pair will be able to rise to the level of 1.3470. The next target is 1.3600.
An alternative point of view is supported by 30% of experts. According to them, the pound has already exhausted its potential, and the pair is facing lateral movement in the channel 1.2960-1.3300. Support/resistance levels are 1.3080 and 1.3200;

- USD/JPY. The basic forecast for this pair remains the same: 75% of analysts believe that the uptrend will continue, the pair will overcome the bar at 112.00, after which it is expected to move in the side channel 112.25-113.70, as it was in last November-December.
The forecast that is drawn by graphical analysis on D1 looks more restrained: lateral movement within 111.35-112.70.
As for indicators, 70% of them, both on H4 and D1, are colored green, 20% are gray, neutral, and only 10% are red.
In the case of a trend reversal, support levels are 109.10, 110.25 and 110.75;

- Cryptocurrencies. If you look at the Bitcoin chart, you have a bad feeling about another disaster. Look at the segment from mid-July to mid-November 2018: gradual decrease in volatility, consolidation, calm and, as a result ... a drop in quotes by almost 45%, - from $6,500 to $3,660.
And now take a look at the period from mid-November to today. You see absolutely the same picture: a gradual decrease in volatility, consolidation, calm and, as a result ... But what the result will be, is still unknown. The crypto market is known for its unpredictability. Although, 70% of specialists vote for the fall of the pair BTC/USD in spring below $3,000.
As for the forecast for the near future, it remains unchanged: most likely, the pair will continue to move along the horizon of $3,900 with quotes spikes by 200-300 points in one direction or another. It should be noted that the trading conditions offered by the brokerage company NordFX make it possible to profit intraday even on most minor fluctuations of cryptocurrencies. Trading takes place on the MT4 and MT5 platforms familiar to traders, commissions are minimal, and just $100 for MT5 or $300 for MT4 is enough to open a buy or a sell position with a volume of 1 Bitcoin (1 lot).


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 11 - 15, 2019




First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The pair collapsed on Thursday, March 7, after the ECB announced that it was not worth waiting for the increase in interest rates this autumn. The earliest when this can happen is 2020. In addition, it became known that the European regulator plans to launch LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) in September - a program to refinance European banks at low interest rates. If we add the reduction in forecasts for GDP and inflation to this, as well as statistics on foreign trade of China that are not the best for the Eurozone, the picture for the European currency is rather sad.
As a result, by mid-Friday, the pair slipped to the values of summer 2017 (1.1175), literally jumping out of the medium-term corridor 1.1215-1.1570. However, data on the US labor market published on March 8 (NFP) allowed the bulls to turn the trend up. After the number of new jobs amounted to 311K in January, it was expected that in February this figure would be equal to 180K. In reality, the result turned out to be many times worse, only 20K, which made it possible to once again talk about stagnation in the US economy and to return the pair to the level of 1.1235;

- GBP/USD. As expected by most analysts (60%), on the eve of the re-vote in the UK Parliament on the EU deal, which should occur on March 12, the pound continued its decline, losing about 200 points in a week and reaching values in the 1.3000 zone;

- USD/JPY. Recall that last week about 20% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 already gave signals this pair was overbought, which allowed us to expect a fairly strong downward correction. This is what happened in reality, the yen almost won back the losses of the last week of February and ended the five-day period at the level of 111.15;

- Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has been slowly and not very confidently, but still growing for the last month and a half. Somebody, of course, may have some hopes out of the growth of 16%. But, if you look at the chart, it is clearly visible that any efforts of the bulls immediately meet with active resistance from the bears, who categorically do not want to release the main cryptocurrency beyond the 15-week highs. Therefore, it is still possible to talk about the consolidation of BTC in the $3,900 zone.
As for the capitalization of the crypto market, here everything looks quite prosaic and monotonous: starting from the end of December, its volumes fluctuate in a fairly narrow range from $110 billion to $135 billion (not counting a one-time surge to $141 billion).
Of the top altcoins, Litecoin (LTC/USD) has shown the most visible growth, having added almost 90% in a month and a half. For Ethereum (ETH/USD), this indicator looks much more modest: plus 30%, while for Ripple (XRP/USD) the increase was only 10%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

The week March 11 to 15 will literally be filled with events, each of which can not only cause an increase in volatility, but also lead to a change in the trends’ direction.
So, on Monday, March 11, a meeting of eurozone finance ministers will be held in Brussels. And on the same day in the evening, the data on the US “retail sales control group” will become known, which, according to forecasts, may slightly strengthen the dollar.
Tuesday will also see the publication of economic statistics from the United States, this time it will be the consumer price index. Attention should be paid to the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve, J. Powell on monetary policy. On Wednesday, we are expecting a report on the UK budget, as well as statistics on retail sales and industrial production in China. On Thursday, we will learn what is happening with consumer prices in Germany, and on Friday we will hear Haruhiko Kuroda’s comment on the prospects for the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan.
But all these rather important events fade before what should happen on Tuesday, March 12, in the capital of the United Kingdom. It is on this day that a second vote will be held in the British Parliament on the terms of Brexit, and, in the event of another failure of Prime Minister May, lawmakers will be able to vote on March 13 to postpone the negotiations and postpone Brexit to a later date. Theoretically, even a second referendum on the exit of the UK from the EU is not excluded.
These votes can affect not only the quotes of the major world currencies, but also the future of the world economy as a whole. In the meantime, analysts' opinions are as follows:

- EUR/USD. 60% of experts, supported by almost 90% of oscillators and trend indicators, expect the euro to further fall to the 1.1100-1.1125 zone. It should be noted that in the transition to the forecast for the second half of March, 60% of analysts are already siding with the bulls, waiting for the pair to return to level 1.1400-1.1500;

- GBP/USD. 65% of the experts have now voted for the decline of the pair to the level of 1.2850-1.2900. However, in the transition to longer-term forecasts, as well as in the case of the euro, the majority (60%) expects the British currency to strengthen and rise to the maximum of February (1.3350) and then 200 points higher;

- USD/JPY. Despite the fall of the pair last week, it remains within the ascending channel, which began at the very beginning of January 2019. That is why 60% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair will overcome the bar at 112.00, after which it is expected to move in the side channel 112.25-113.70, as it was last November-December.
The alternative point of view is supported by 40% of experts, who believe that the pair has not yet reached its local bottom, which is in the zone of 109.70-110.10;

https://nordfx.com/data/posts/2019/03/09/1552137733_USDJPY_11.03.2019.png



- Cryptocurrencies. There is a saying "Many men, many minds". A well-known crypto trader and one of the top authors on TradingView under the pseudonym MagicPoopCannon has conducted a survey among his followers on Twitter, asking them to give an answer regarding the long-term price of Bitcoin. About 3 thousand subscribers took part in the voting. According to their answers, the majority (42%) believes that over the next four years, the price of Bitcoin will be in the interval between $100,000 and $1 million, 30% called a number between $20,000 and $100,000, 13% in the range from $3.000 to $20.000 and 15% predicted this cryptocurrency the darkest future, calling the range from $0 to $3,000.
As for the forecast for the near future, according to most experts, the BTC/USD pair will most likely continue to move in the $3,600-4,300 range, waiting for some really serious news that will help break through the boundaries of this channel in any direction.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/
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