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昨日(7日)美国华府证实,本周(10日)将与中方高阶官员展开第13轮贸易协商,但中方政府官员却在协商前有暗示,将大幅缩小愿意谈判的议题范围,排除改革产业政策或政府补贴的承诺,显示出中方此次的贸易协商立场相当强硬,促使市场投资人更加审慎看待中美贸易协商的前景。
而目前美元与黄金在趋势上出现同步走强的局势,是较为罕见的现象,说明在全球掀起贸易摩擦,以及欧盟区与日本都进入负利率的环境下,使得美元与黄金同时走强,恐怕是未来的新趋势。除此之外,各大央行不断增持黄金实体存量,尤其是中国人民银行(PBOC),先是减持外汇美元存量,转而在过去10个月以来已经增持将近100公吨的黄金存量,提供了黄金趋势上的多头力道,而中国人民央行之所以大量买进黄金,主因是受到内部实体经济成长力道的减缓,以及长期中美贸易摩擦下的影响,使得央行做出避险需求的配置政策。

外汇-技术分析(黄金XAUUSD):
1.png
今日外汇黄金(10月8日) 早盘在1493.1美元/盎司附近,从技术分析面切入,1小时级别观察走势符合昨日(7日)预测大幅拉回修正,目前K棒落于下降通道下轨边缘,因此有机会触底小幅反弹行情。
目前短线上方压力区间位于1502~1503美元/盎司,下行方向,初步支撑区间于1487~1488美元/盎司,操作心态偏短多为主,想进场做短多的投资者可考虑在1490.5美元盎司至1492美元/盎司区间轻仓买进,MT4设定止损点位可考虑设置1488美元/盎司下方。

外汇-技术分析(欧元/美元EURUSD):
2.png
今日外汇欧元/美元(10月8日) 早盘在1.09701附近,从技术分析面切入,1小时级别观察符合昨日(7日)预测拉回修正,主因受到美元跌势止稳后展开反弹走势,目前区间震荡如有跌破图中绿色支撑区间会进入新的下跌阶段,因此有机会小幅反弹后再度下跌。
目前短线上方压力区间位于1.09900~1.09950,下行方向,初步支撑区间于1.09450~1.09500,操作心态偏短空为主,想进场做短空的投资者可考虑在1.09780至1.09820区间轻仓买进,MT4设定止损点位可考虑设置1.09870上方。

外汇-技术分析(英镑/美元GBPUSD):
3.png
今日外汇英镑/美元(10月8日) 早盘在1.22878附近,从技术分析面切入,1小时线级别观察走势市场持续锁定筹码底部,K棒落于区间小幅震荡,因此有机会底部做出反弹。
目前短线上方压力区间位于1.23600~1.23650,下行方向,初步支撑区间于1.22700~1.22750,操作心态偏短多为主,想进场做短多的投资者可考虑在1.22920至1.22970区间轻仓买进,MT4设定止损点位可考虑设置1.22830下方。

外汇-技术分析(纽币/美元NZDUSD):
4.png
今日外汇纽币/美元(10月8日) 早盘在0.62894附近,从技术分析面切入,1小时线级别观察符合昨日(7日)判断头部形态右肩完成后出现大幅下跌,目前正在跌深后出现反弹,因此有机会冲高再度拉回。
目前短线上方压力区间位于0.63370~0.63400,下行方向,初步支撑区间于0.62850~0.62880,操作心态偏短空为主,想进场做短空的投资者可考虑在0.63150至0.63180区间轻仓买进,MT4设定止损点位可考虑设置0.63250上方。

外汇-技术分析(纳斯达克指数Nas100):
5.png
今日外汇纳指(10月8日) 早盘在7722.2附近,从技术分析面切入,1小时线级别观察走势符合昨日(7日)预测拉回中轨后再度上涨,从形态中所说的对称形态已经顺利完成同时来到压力区间,因此有机会触顶后做修正走势。
目前短线上方压力区间位于7790~7800点,下行方向,初步支撑区间于7690~7700点,操作心态偏短空为主,想进场做短空的投资者可考虑在7770至7780区间轻仓买进,MT4设定止损点位可考虑设置7795上方。

今日外汇重点数据:(数据名称/重要性/前值/预期)
1.日本8月贸易帐(亿日元)/三颗星/-745/364
2.中国9月财新服务业PMI/三颗星/52.1/52
3.瑞士9月季调后失业率/三颗星/2.3%/2.3%
4.德国8月季调后工业产出月率/三颗星/-0.6%/-0.1%
5.法国8月贸易帐(亿欧元)/三颗星/-46.07/-44.8
6.美国9月NFIB小型企业信心指数/三颗星/103.1/102
7.美国9月PPI月率/三颗星/0.1%/0.1%

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