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  1. jerry0821
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  4. Monday, 11 November 2019
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中美贸易摩擦的第一阶段协议有望达成,消息一出黄金避险情绪大幅下降,因投资者暂时对全球经济增长速度重拾信心,不过必须注意本周的欧洲各项经济数据很有可能出现放缓现象,使得再度改变投资者短线上的看法。
德国预计本周14日公布第三季度国内生产毛额(GDP)数据,可能证实陷入经济衰退,根据路透社对经济学家的调查显示,这个全球第四大经济体的第三季GDP萎缩0.1%,已经连续两季出现负成长,此现象可视为陷入衰退中。另外英国将在今日(11日)公布第三季GDP,随着全球经济增长和对英国脱欧的担忧,但根据路透社对经济学家的调查显示,英国第三季GDP预期将增长0.4%,能够避免经济衰退的问题。最后本周焦点在美联储(Fed)主席鲍威尔将于14日与15日前往美国众议院预算委员会听证,鲍威尔的发言方向将以美国经济展望为主轴,市场投资者需多加密切关注。

外汇技术分析(黄金XAUUSD):
今日外汇黄金(11月11日) 早盘在1459.3美元/盎司附近,从技术分析面切入,1小时级别观察走势跌破重要支撑1464~1467美元/盎司,将出现大幅修正后的反弹,因此有机会出现破底翻扬行情。
目前短线上方压力区间位于1471~1472美元/盎司,下行方向,初步支撑区间于1457~1458美元/盎司,操作心态偏短多为主,想进场做短多的投资者可考虑在1461美元盎司至1463美元/盎司区间轻仓买进,止损点位可考虑设置1459美元/盎司下方。

外汇技术分析(欧元/美元EURUSD):
今日外汇欧元/美元(11月11日) 早盘在1.10193附近,从技术分析面切入,1小时级别观察走势跌破大型颈线后,按照布林通道的空方排列已完成,目前跌深止稳,因此有机会开始做短线反弹行情。
目前短线上方压力区间位于1.10400~1.10460,下行方向,初步支撑区间于1.10050~1.10100,操作心态偏短多为主,想进场做短多的投资者可考虑在1.10210至1.10250区间轻仓买进,止损点位可考虑设置1.10160下方。

外汇技术分析(英镑/美元GBPUSD):
今日外汇英镑/美元(11月11日) 早盘在1.27892附近,从技术分析面切入,1小时线级别观察走势相当完整的下降通道,目前由底部支撑开始反弹,但要多注意下午的英国各项数据波动,因此有机会拉回后再度上涨。
目前短线上方压力区间位于1.28250~1.28300,下行方向,初步支撑区间于1.27700~1.27750,操作心态偏短多为主,想进场做短多的投资者可考虑在1.27850至1.27900区间轻仓买进,止损点位可考虑设置1.27720下方。

外汇技术分析(纽币/美元NZDUSD):
今日外汇纽币/美元(11月11日) 早盘在0.63259附近,从技术分析面切入,1小时线级别观察走势符合上周五(8日)预测先跌后涨,目前K棒持续落于下降通道,因此有机会反弹至图中红圈后再度下跌。
目前短线上方压力区间位于0.63650~0.63700,下行方向,初步支撑区间于0.63300~0.63350,操作心态偏短空为主,想进场做短空的投资者可考虑在0.63530至0.63560区间轻仓买进,止损点位可考虑设置0.63610上方。

外汇技术分析(纳斯达克指数Nas100):
今日外汇纳指(11月11日) 早盘在8250.7附近,从技术分析面切入,1小时线级别观察走势受到中美贸易有望达成第一阶段的利多消息,使得美股再度上涨,目前冲高无力,因此有机会短线做拉回修正。
目前短线上方压力区间位于8250~8260点,下行方向,初步支撑区间于8190~8200点,操作心态偏短空为主,想进场做短空的投资者可考虑在8235至8250区间轻仓买进,止损点位可考虑设置8260上方。

今日外汇重点数据(数据名称/重要性/前值/预期):
1.日本9月贸易帐(亿日元)/三颗星/509/513
2.中国10月M2货币供应年率/三颗星/8.4%/8.4%
3.英国第三季度GDP年率初值/三颗星/1.3%/1.1%
4.英国9月季调后商品贸易帐(亿英镑)/三颗星/-98.06/-100
5.英国9月工业产出月率/三颗星/-0.6%/-0.2%
6.英国9月制造业产出月率/三颗星/-0.7%/-0.3%
7.英国9月三个月GDP月率/三颗星/0.3%/0.4%

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